Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Arthur Martirosyan - 44 Day War, Ukraine, Iran-Israel, Sargsyan and Kocharyan Interviews, Narek Karapetyan on Tucker Carlson | Ep 484, Nov 9, 2025

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Groong Week in Review - November 9, 2025

Topics

  • Nov 9: 44-Day War 5 years Hence
  • Ukraine and Iran-Israel Conflicts
  • Pres. Serge Sargsyan’s Interview
  • Pres. Robert Kocharyan’s Interview
  • Narek Karapetyan on Tucker Carlson


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Episode 484 | Recorded: November 10, 2025

https://podcasts.groong.org/484


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:04):

Commemorating the fifth anniversary of the 44-day war,

Asbed (00:00:08):

state of affairs in the Ukraine war and the simmering Israel-Iran conflict,

Asbed (00:00:12):

President Serge Sargsyan's marathon interview,

Asbed (00:00:15):

President Kocharyan's interview,

Asbed (00:00:17):

and Narek Karapetyan and Robert Amsterdam on Tucker Carlson.

Asbed (00:00:21):

Is that enough for you?

Asbed (00:00:23):

These and other topics we are going to take up on today's Armenian News Network

Asbed (00:00:27):

Week in Review for November 9,

Asbed (00:00:31):

2025, with Arthur Martirosyan,

Asbed (00:00:32):

an expert in international negotiations.

Asbed (00:00:35):

Hello, Arthur. Always good to have you back on the Groong Podcast.

Arthur (00:00:38):

Hi, it's always good to be with you guys.

Arthur (00:00:41):

Thank you for having me.

Asbed (00:00:45):

Okay, so November 9,

Asbed (00:00:47):

that's yesterday,

Asbed (00:00:48):

marked the end of the 44-day war in 2020,

Asbed (00:00:50):

and so it's been five years now,

Asbed (00:00:53):

yet Armenian politics entirely revolve around this seminal event in our modern

Asbed (00:00:58):

history.

Asbed (00:01:00):

So I wanted to give you a moment to sound off about this and tell me your impressions.

Asbed (00:01:03):

Arthur?

Arthur (00:01:28):

Well, yes, it's surprisingly fast.

Arthur (00:01:32):

Five years ago on this day,

Arthur (00:01:35):

we had kind of the end of the war,

Arthur (00:01:38):

but that end is kind of still looming in terms of security risks for Armenians and

Arthur (00:01:48):

Armenians,

Arthur (00:01:49):

as you mentioned.

Arthur (00:01:51):

I think the most challenging issue is after every war,

Arthur (00:01:56):

The parties that do not learn lessons,

Arthur (00:01:59):

do not have a transparent process for learning lessons,

Arthur (00:02:03):

are doomed to repeat the same mistakes or not gaining much from the process.

Arthur (00:02:10):

You know,

Arthur (00:02:11):

it's interesting that Prime Minister Pashinyan has been challenging the previous

Arthur (00:02:16):

presidents to debate with him the issue.

Arthur (00:02:19):

And they certainly declined any debating with him.

Arthur (00:02:22):

But de facto that debate is going on,

Arthur (00:02:26):

because even if it's not a face-to-face debate,

Arthur (00:02:31):

but then we can see how different parties,

Arthur (00:02:34):

namely the third president,

Arthur (00:02:35):

the second president,

Arthur (00:02:37):

and to a degree,

Arthur (00:02:38):

the first president,

Arthur (00:02:39):

Levante Petrosyan,

Arthur (00:02:41):

are taking barbs against his stance,

Arthur (00:02:44):

against his interpretation of what happened and why it happened the way it

Arthur (00:02:48):

happened.

Arthur (00:02:49):

Unfortunately,

Arthur (00:02:50):

the commission that they have in the National Assembly is to come up with the

Arthur (00:02:58):

lessons learned kind of investigation,

Arthur (00:03:01):

and the public is not going to see results of that investigation.

Arthur (00:03:07):

And there is no pressure on Pashinyan to reveal all the lessons.

Arthur (00:03:13):

So it allows him to continue to blame the previous governments,

Arthur (00:03:19):

blame everybody to escape his own responsibility for what happened.

Arthur (00:03:27):

So that's the unfortunate part about this anniversary.

Arthur (00:03:31):

I think wars happen,

Arthur (00:03:34):

losses are possible,

Arthur (00:03:36):

but what's not permissible is avoiding lessons learned.

Arthur (00:03:42):

That's something that every nation that has recovered, shown resilience, has done historically.

Arthur (00:03:50):

And if we don't do that,

Arthur (00:03:53):

unfortunately,

Arthur (00:03:54):

I cannot say that we're going to be able to avoid the same mistakes going forward.

Hovik (00:04:00):

Hovik, what are your thoughts?

Hovik (00:04:02):

Well,

Hovik (00:04:03):

Arthur Martirosyn gave a very logical and balanced response,

Hovik (00:04:08):

so I'm going to give the emotional one.

Hovik (00:04:11):

I think that,

Hovik (00:04:12):

you know, you mentioned,

Hovik (00:04:13):

you forgot to,

Hovik (00:04:14):

maybe you omitted the complete ethnic cleansing of Artsakh,

Hovik (00:04:18):

which may be considered the result of this war as well.

Hovik (00:04:22):

150,000 Armenians no longer have a home of,

Hovik (00:04:26):

you know, we're going to talk about this,

Hovik (00:04:27):

but I was watching President Kocharyan's interview,

Hovik (00:04:31):

and, you know,

Hovik (00:04:32):

I concur with him in that Pashinyan did everything,

Hovik (00:04:35):

you know,

Hovik (00:04:36):

we've covered this,

Hovik (00:04:37):

Pashinyan did everything to...

Hovik (00:04:40):

not preventing a war,

Hovik (00:04:41):

but to almost instigate this war,

Hovik (00:04:45):

whether it is the withdrawing from negotiations with the OSCE Minsk group,

Hovik (00:04:53):

to aggressive rhetoric with Turkey and Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:04:58):

to the July 2020,

Hovik (00:05:02):

I don't know what you would call it,

Hovik (00:05:03):

conflagration on the border,

Hovik (00:05:05):

where he...

Hovik (00:05:07):

point you know gave like more than 70 battle crosses to People something like you

Hovik (00:05:12):

know you probably wouldn't be even given given throughout the whole Artsakh war the

Hovik (00:05:18):

first Artsakh war Unfortunately,

Hovik (00:05:21):

this is a nightmare for Armenians.

Hovik (00:05:23):

We try hard not to show it but I think inside this this war has affected every

Hovik (00:05:29):

single Armenian I don't see Regardless of what Pashinyan does in Armenia.

Hovik (00:05:34):

I don't see how

Hovik (00:05:36):

Armenians worldwide will be able to accept what has happened,

Hovik (00:05:43):

what is happening, and unfortunately,

Hovik (00:05:47):

you know despite all the talk about peace without any security guarantees without

Hovik (00:05:52):

any actually proof that there will be peace as Arthur mentioned we are poised to go

Hovik (00:05:59):

into this and um go into this possibly from a less advantageous position and um you

Hovik (00:06:08):

know that's what you get when

Hovik (00:06:11):

the loser on the side remains and retains power.

Hovik (00:06:15):

And unfortunately, that's what happened in Armenia.

Hovik (00:06:17):

And this nightmare continues without an end, it seems.

Asbed (00:06:21):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:06:22):

For me also, I think key takeaways five years later are the lack of a...

Asbed (00:06:28):

Report by the War Commission or a real War Commission, to be honest, which was not assigned.

Asbed (00:06:33):

So we don't know exactly what happened, how it happened and such.

Asbed (00:06:38):

An independent commission.

Asbed (00:06:39):

Absolutely.

Asbed (00:06:40):

Absolutely.

Asbed (00:06:41):

An independent one. I mean,

Asbed (00:06:42):

you can't have the civil contract investigating itself and finding itself guilty or

Asbed (00:06:47):

not guilty.

Asbed (00:06:48):

It's just not natural.

Arthur (00:06:50):

I think no matter how they try to avoid that,

Arthur (00:06:53):

they're not publishing it because no matter what they say,

Arthur (00:06:57):

the responsibility still is going to be gravely on them.

Arthur (00:07:02):

So that's why they're not publishing it.

Asbed (00:07:04):

Absolutely.

Arthur (00:07:04):

To continue to play the blame game.

Asbed (00:07:07):

Absolutely. It's the blame game and it's politicized.

Asbed (00:07:10):

And one of the comments that keeps coming up is Pashinyan saying that he should

Asbed (00:07:16):

have recognized Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan way back then,

Asbed (00:07:21):

back when he came to power.

Asbed (00:07:23):

And I think that's evidence of him having learned a wrong lesson from a war that

Asbed (00:07:29):

has not been investigated.

Asbed (00:07:31):

Had he said to the Armenian people that I'm coming to power to give Artsakh away,

Asbed (00:07:36):

he would not have come to power.

Asbed (00:07:38):

because he came to power saying Artsakh is Armenia.

Asbed (00:07:41):

He came to power to eradicate corruption in previous governments, et cetera, et cetera.

Asbed (00:07:46):

None of those things are done.

Asbed (00:07:48):

He did not keep Artsakh.

Asbed (00:07:49):

He didn't recognize Artsakh.

Asbed (00:07:50):

He has not gotten rid of corruption.

Asbed (00:07:53):

His government is arguably one of the most corrupt times that we are living through

Asbed (00:07:57):

right now in Armenia.

Asbed (00:07:59):

So what part of democracy this is, is unclear.

Asbed (00:08:03):

And I think about it as a consequence of a war that has not been investigated

Asbed (00:08:08):

with an independent commission with consequences.

Asbed (00:08:11):

I'm going to move on because we have so many topics that we want to talk about.

Asbed (00:08:17):

Arthur, let's take a look at the international scene around Armenia.

Asbed (00:08:23):

Last week,

Asbed (00:08:24):

we asked our guests to discuss what they thought the present situation is for two

Asbed (00:08:28):

conflicts which are critical to our region,

Asbed (00:08:30):

the war in Ukraine and then the simmering Iran-Israel conflict.

Asbed (00:08:34):

What's your assessment of where the Ukraine war is at present?

Asbed (00:08:38):

And what is its most likely trajectory given the U.S.-Russia relations and where

Asbed (00:08:43):

the EU is as well?

Arthur (00:08:45):

Oh, there are obviously,

Arthur (00:08:46):

I don't have a crystal ball when it comes to words,

Arthur (00:08:48):

but there are several scenarios and we can talk about the most probable one.

Arthur (00:08:54):

And at this point,

Arthur (00:08:55):

the most probable one is that Russia will continue the gradual encroachment,

Arthur (00:09:02):

territorial.

Arthur (00:09:04):

It's slow. Some people like President Trump was saying that this work should have ended in a

Arthur (00:09:11):

week or maybe a month or so.

Arthur (00:09:14):

But I don't think it's a kind of a conflict where the sides were ready for the

Arthur (00:09:22):

configuration that it has taken.

Arthur (00:09:25):

The beginning of the war,

Arthur (00:09:26):

I don't think anyone could predict how the Western coalition,

Arthur (00:09:32):

especially the Europeans,

Arthur (00:09:34):

would be supporting Ukraine.

Arthur (00:09:38):

I think they've gone beyond all expectations when it comes to monetary support,

Arthur (00:09:46):

military intelligence support,

Arthur (00:09:49):

supporting the war.

Arthur (00:09:50):

And that war has dragged,

Arthur (00:09:52):

not just because of that,

Arthur (00:09:53):

but because anyone who was familiar with the pre-war situation from...

Arthur (00:10:01):

Well, it was a war, but it was a kind of a low intensity war from 2014 to 22.

Arthur (00:10:09):

So anyone who was familiar with that must have known that Ukrainians were prepared,

Arthur (00:10:16):

were prepared and

Arthur (00:10:18):

the types of engineering and reinforcement that they had along the line of contact

Arthur (00:10:25):

would be impossible to overcome for any military of the world,

Arthur (00:10:31):

and even the U.S.

Arthur (00:10:32):

We've seen how the U.S.

Arthur (00:10:35):

fought in Iraq, how the U.S.

Arthur (00:10:38):

struggled in Afghanistan.

Arthur (00:10:40):

So it's not Iraq or Afghanistan.

Arthur (00:10:43):

It's, I think, much more formidable when it comes to

Arthur (00:10:48):

its ability to put up military resistance.

Arthur (00:10:52):

And maybe Russians,

Arthur (00:10:53):

too, somewhat miscalculated their ability to quickly break the backbone of that army.

Arthur (00:11:00):

That was their major miscalculation.

Arthur (00:11:03):

However,

Arthur (00:11:04):

I think one of the biggest disadvantages Ukraine right now has is this war of

Arthur (00:11:11):

attrition,

Arthur (00:11:13):

although they are able to hit the targets way in the Russian depth to the Ural

Arthur (00:11:20):

Mountains,

Arthur (00:11:21):

not beyond it,

Arthur (00:11:22):

but every day you get news how the

Arthur (00:11:26):

Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries, various targets in the depth of the Russian

Arthur (00:11:35):

way in the rear.

Arthur (00:11:37):

But that doesn't mean that Russia does not inflict huge damage on Ukraine.

Arthur (00:11:42):

And that damage shows,

Arthur (00:11:44):

because places like Kiev,

Arthur (00:11:46):

the capital,

Arthur (00:11:47):

has only seven hours of electricity right now.

Arthur (00:11:51):

Other places are even in much worse situation, except the western parts of the country.

Arthur (00:11:56):

But the biggest disadvantage is the manpower.

Arthur (00:12:00):

trained manpower, motivated manpower.

Arthur (00:12:03):

After four years of fighting, you lose the most capable units.

Arthur (00:12:09):

Replacements are not easy.

Arthur (00:12:10):

It requires fast learning, and you can't really do that when you are in the war situation.

Arthur (00:12:18):

So how things might develop in that scenario,

Arthur (00:12:22):

where the Ukrainian side may decide that it's time to stop and go back to the

Arthur (00:12:28):

negotiation table and accept the Russian terms, it's very hard to say.

Arthur (00:12:33):

I think Zelenskyy is ready to fight for as long as possible,

Arthur (00:12:38):

but you can do that only if you have the manpower.

Arthur (00:12:41):

It's not the weapons.

Arthur (00:12:43):

It's not the lack of intelligence.

Arthur (00:12:47):

It's the manpower that is the weakest side, and Russians are fully aware of that.

Arthur (00:12:52):

So they're going to continue to put pressure.

Arthur (00:12:56):

The recent advancements on the battlefield show that gradually they are getting to

Arthur (00:13:05):

at least their program minimum,

Arthur (00:13:07):

which is...

Arthur (00:13:08):

getting in control of entire Donbas and some areas outside of it,

Arthur (00:13:13):

in Kharkiv,

Arthur (00:13:14):

in Sumy,

Arthur (00:13:15):

Zaporozhye and Kherson.

Arthur (00:13:18):

How far they can go then?

Arthur (00:13:20):

Will they reach the Dnieper River?

Arthur (00:13:22):

Although some fighting is already in Dnieper, Dnepropetrovsk, the old name of that region.

Arthur (00:13:31):

It's very hard to say how fast they can move after they quote unquote liberate Donbas.

Arthur (00:13:38):

But I think the most intensive fighting

Arthur (00:13:42):

or preparation for fighting was done along that line.

Arthur (00:13:46):

What's going to happen after that, it's very hard to say.

Arthur (00:13:49):

And so much of the outcome will depend on where they start.

Arthur (00:13:56):

Obviously, Russian agenda is not just getting in control of parts of Ukraine.

Arthur (00:14:04):

Their agenda is beyond that.

Arthur (00:14:05):

It's about the

Arthur (00:14:07):

architecture, security architecture with Europeans and Americans.

Arthur (00:14:12):

And the recent decision by Trump to renew the nuclear testing shows that we still

Arthur (00:14:21):

are in the frame of

Arthur (00:14:24):

possible escalation here and there.

Arthur (00:14:26):

But I'm positive that sooner or later the losses on the battlefield will allow the

Arthur (00:14:33):

parties to come to the table and find a solution.

Arthur (00:14:38):

And as to the United States, who's the major player in this, obviously,

Arthur (00:14:42):

In some ways,

Arthur (00:14:43):

when you analyze what happens right now,

Arthur (00:14:47):

it's very close to what was predicted by some analysts when the war started.

Arthur (00:14:54):

I think sound analysis was provided by a couple of Harvard professors.

Arthur (00:15:01):

In short, they were saying that everybody will be losing and

Arthur (00:15:06):

I think at this point we can say that to a degree,

Arthur (00:15:09):

if there is a winner,

Arthur (00:15:10):

it's the United States.

Arthur (00:15:12):

But the United States, too, has things to lose in this confrontation.

Arthur (00:15:16):

That's why Trump wants to stop it.

Arthur (00:15:18):

He speaks about peace,

Arthur (00:15:19):

but the real interest is to stop it until Russians have gotten to areas that—

Arthur (00:15:27):

are already kind of by agreement with Ukraine are going to be under U.S.

Arthur (00:15:34):

corporate control.

Arthur (00:15:36):

So this is the cynical part of this war, right?

Arthur (00:15:40):

We see major losses,

Arthur (00:15:43):

not only cities are destroyed,

Arthur (00:15:46):

infrastructure is demolished,

Arthur (00:15:49):

human losses are humongous in terms of military losses on both sides,

Arthur (00:15:54):

and civilian too.

Arthur (00:15:56):

and suffering is immense,

Arthur (00:15:58):

and yet behind it are real interests,

Arthur (00:16:02):

or sometimes I call it mythologized security interests.

Arthur (00:16:07):

Europeans want to keep Ukraine as a buffer zone,

Arthur (00:16:10):

as a country that will be whatever is left of it is going to continue to play a

Arthur (00:16:15):

proxy against Russia.

Arthur (00:16:17):

The U.S.

Arthur (00:16:18):

wants to,

Arthur (00:16:19):

the U.S.,

Arthur (00:16:20):

meaning Trump administration,

Arthur (00:16:22):

wants to put an end to it so that they gain quickly

Arthur (00:16:26):

dividends from deals with Zelensky regime.

Arthur (00:16:30):

And unfortunately, I don't see a very quick end to this.

Arthur (00:16:35):

The war is likely to drag at least for another

Arthur (00:16:38):

six months to a year at least.

Arthur (00:16:41):

And it will depend on the progress on the ground, as I said.

Asbed (00:16:44):

Okay,

Asbed (00:16:45):

Arthur, before I ask you about the Iran-Israel conflict,

Asbed (00:16:49):

let me take a moment for an aside,

Asbed (00:16:51):

because as Putin has been rejecting some of these ceasefires coming from the United

Asbed (00:16:55):

States,

Asbed (00:16:56):

he has justified it by saying that unless there's a comprehensive peace deal,

Asbed (00:17:00):

a temporary ceasefire is meaningless and will only prolong the conflict.

Asbed (00:17:05):

He specifically mentioned

Asbed (00:17:07):

the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan not achieving peace in 1994 and settling for a

Asbed (00:17:13):

tenuous ceasefire for 25 years.

Asbed (00:17:15):

What lessons did Putin learn from the Artsakh conflict?

Arthur (00:17:20):

It's obvious he learned the lesson that if you

Arthur (00:17:23):

keep it frozen.

Arthur (00:17:26):

At some point when balance changes or when some other players would like to ignite

Arthur (00:17:32):

it,

Arthur (00:17:33):

it's possible that there will be a repeat of the conflict at the point where

Arthur (00:17:38):

you are least prepared to have it.

Arthur (00:17:41):

So he wants to do what Armenians didn't do in 94, and what Aliyev is trying to do right now.

Arthur (00:17:49):

So kind of put a permanent end to the conflict.

Arthur (00:17:55):

I don't believe there are permanent ends to conflicts like this,

Arthur (00:17:58):

because no matter how you end,

Arthur (00:18:01):

there's going to be a sense of injustice done.

Arthur (00:18:05):

and our future generations are going to look back and live with that injustice.

Arthur (00:18:10):

Peace is only possible when there is a just solution.

Arthur (00:18:14):

Injustice breeds new wars.

Arthur (00:18:16):

When they're going to happen, how they're going to happen, it's very hard to say.

Arthur (00:18:19):

But Putin brushes that part off.

Arthur (00:18:23):

He thinks that much as Aliyev is trying to find a permanent solution to the conflict,

Arthur (00:18:29):

He can do that in Ukraine.

Arthur (00:18:33):

And they have their own experience, and that experience is Chechnya, right?

Arthur (00:18:38):

So you either get a piece on your terms, and then you deal with other issues.

Arthur (00:18:47):

bring your own narrative of kind of,

Arthur (00:18:52):

it was probably unjust,

Arthur (00:18:55):

but that injustice was a result of the external powers kind of meddling in the

Arthur (00:19:03):

process,

Arthur (00:19:04):

trying to get their own interests satisfied at the expense of

Arthur (00:19:07):

the poor Chechens, and then it will be poor Ukrainians.

Arthur (00:19:11):

It was done at their expense because they had a regime that was playing with the

Arthur (00:19:15):

outside players against Russia.

Arthur (00:19:18):

The general Russian perception of what they would want as an outcome is a very

Arthur (00:19:24):

simple formula,

Arthur (00:19:25):

which is no unfriendly power in our backyard.

Arthur (00:19:30):

Can they achieve that?

Arthur (00:19:31):

Can they find a new modus vivendi with Europeans?

Arthur (00:19:36):

I doubt it's going to be possible short term,

Arthur (00:19:39):

but much will depend on where Europe is going to be when that war ends,

Arthur (00:19:45):

and will the European Union itself be able to act as a unitary actor on those

Arthur (00:19:53):

matters.

Asbed (00:19:54):

So between these comments and the comments that Putin has made in the past about

Asbed (00:19:58):

Armenia itself not recognizing Artsakh,

Asbed (00:20:00):

should we understand that he thinks that one of our presidents should have

Asbed (00:20:04):

recognized Artsakh in the past?

Arthur (00:20:07):

I think so, yes.

Arthur (00:20:08):

Well, I mean, it wouldn't put an end to the conflict, but it could be a very powerful...

Arthur (00:20:16):

way to transform the conflict in some ways because you know not recognizing it when

Arthur (00:20:23):

the negotiations were still continuing is reasonable but not recognizing it when

Arthur (00:20:30):

the other side chooses a war which was right at September 27 basically right right

Arthur (00:20:37):

right because essentially that was a violation of one of the principles

Arthur (00:20:43):

behind the negotiation process.

Arthur (00:20:46):

No military solution to the problem, not even threat of military use, right?

Arthur (00:20:53):

So once one of the sides violates that,

Arthur (00:20:56):

then you cannot hope that you're going to be able to find a negotiated settlement

Arthur (00:21:02):

with them.

Arthur (00:21:03):

So if there's no negotiated settlement, then there is a question why you are not recognizing it.

Arthur (00:21:09):

Before, the argument was, if we recognize it, we are moving out of the negotiation process.

Arthur (00:21:14):

But if there is no negotiation process, if there is a war, then Armenia should have been ready.

Arthur (00:21:20):

Unilateral recognition would not make much sense.

Arthur (00:21:25):

But that means that Armenian diplomacy in the previous years should have worked on...

Arthur (00:21:31):

securing commitments from other players that in case Azerbaijan violates the major

Arthur (00:21:36):

principle,

Arthur (00:21:37):

the OSCE principle and the principle that the parties were negotiating on,

Arthur (00:21:44):

then they should join in and recognize Artsakh.

Arthur (00:21:48):

That either hasn't been done or if some work was done, we know what happened.

Arthur (00:21:55):

The Pashinyan government was talking about in the war about

Arthur (00:22:01):

some kind of corrective measure that somehow the international community,

Arthur (00:22:07):

much as in the case of Kosovo,

Arthur (00:22:09):

would step in and do it.

Arthur (00:22:11):

But nobody is going to do it if you are not making the first step.

Asbed (00:22:14):

Right.

Asbed (00:22:15):

I mean, Macron threatened to recognize Artsakh under certain conditions during the 44-day

Asbed (00:22:20):

war, but he didn't go ahead because I think one of their reasonings was that even

Asbed (00:22:24):

Armenia has not gone forward with that.

Arthur (00:22:26):

Well, I mean, it was used against Armenia as an argument by many.

Arthur (00:22:31):

I mean, even if they...

Arthur (00:22:33):

really didn't want to recognize, they had a pretext, right?

Arthur (00:22:37):

I mean, and I think Russians also were saying that how can we recognize if Armenia itself

Arthur (00:22:41):

is not recognizing?

Arthur (00:22:43):

So they were always putting the ball in the Armenian court.

Arthur (00:22:47):

And that's one of the lessons from this war.

Arthur (00:22:52):

Why the Pashinyan government decided not to recognize when it should have.

Hovik (00:23:00):

Arthur, so changing the topic slightly, but coming closer to Armenia.

Hovik (00:23:06):

Ten days ago,

Hovik (00:23:07):

we had a discussion with Professor Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute,

Hovik (00:23:12):

and he believes that a second phase of the June War on Iran by Israel and the U.S.

Hovik (00:23:21):

is inevitable.

Hovik (00:23:24):

Can you give your own assessment of where this conflict is headed and how it may

Hovik (00:23:29):

affect Armenia,

Hovik (00:23:30):

especially given now that the U.S.

Hovik (00:23:33):

is somehow engaged in this trip thing that was signed on August 8th?

Hovik (00:23:39):

It's right on the border of Iran for our listeners who don't know.

Hovik (00:23:42):

So what is your assessment of the potential war on Iran and Armenia's impact to Armenia?

Arthur (00:23:52):

Well,

Arthur (00:23:53):

again, we need to look into scenarios,

Arthur (00:23:56):

saying that it's inevitable one can agree or disagree with that stark assessment.

Arthur (00:24:04):

But the issue is inevitable, but when, right?

Arthur (00:24:08):

If it's going to happen, when?

Arthur (00:24:10):

And that question begs more of scenario thinking rather than...

Arthur (00:24:15):

saying it's going to happen next month or next year or whatever.

Arthur (00:24:20):

So I'll put three scenarios, although there are more.

Arthur (00:24:24):

I mean, I'm not going to deliberate right now into a more sophisticated analysis here.

Arthur (00:24:30):

The first one is the status quo.

Arthur (00:24:31):

The status quo continues for some time,

Arthur (00:24:34):

and then we need to look at variables that make the status quo possible and when it

Arthur (00:24:38):

may break.

Arthur (00:24:40):

The second one is the war, right?

Arthur (00:24:42):

It's also possible, and what conditions and what

Arthur (00:24:45):

variables would drive parties, especially Israel, to find a military solution.

Arthur (00:24:53):

And the third one is instead of a military solution,

Arthur (00:24:57):

attempts at creating another implosion in Iran.

Arthur (00:25:02):

So if you look at TRIP,

Arthur (00:25:04):

it doesn't rule out other scenarios,

Arthur (00:25:06):

right, especially the military one,

Arthur (00:25:08):

but it's one of the instruments that would allow to continue to put pressure from

Arthur (00:25:14):

outside Iran

Arthur (00:25:16):

trying to cut it off from various routes,

Arthur (00:25:21):

although it's going to be very difficult to achieve,

Arthur (00:25:23):

even if a trip materializes.

Arthur (00:25:27):

I don't know when people are talking,

Arthur (00:25:29):

giving different time estimates,

Arthur (00:25:32):

how quickly that can be operational.

Arthur (00:25:35):

It won't mean that Iran won't have the ability to work with Russia through Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:25:43):

But that's also iffy because where is going to be Azerbaijan on the issue of Israel and U.S.

Arthur (00:25:51):

again trying to start military operations against Iran.

Arthur (00:25:55):

So right now status quo is holding.

Arthur (00:25:59):

And I think it to a degree depends on...

Arthur (00:26:03):

to a large degree, depends on the Israeli domestic politics, and Netanyahu as a survivor.

Arthur (00:26:10):

Paradoxically, as a survivor, he resembles Pashinyan, or Pashinyan resembles him, right?

Arthur (00:26:17):

He has essentially taken under his control judiciary in Israel.

Arthur (00:26:24):

which is an unprecedented development towards a more theocratic and autocratic

Arthur (00:26:29):

regime in Israel.

Arthur (00:26:32):

They also have elections coming in 26 and also, I think, in June.

Arthur (00:26:37):

So he, as a survivor, may look at his chances to beat his major opponent right now is Bennett.

Arthur (00:26:46):

And how does that relate to the scenario of war?

Arthur (00:26:51):

If he sees that he's losing,

Arthur (00:26:53):

although all criminal cases against him have been muted,

Arthur (00:26:59):

if he sees that he might lose the elections,

Arthur (00:27:02):

that may be one way for him to even postpone elections.

Arthur (00:27:07):

Right now, at some point, he lost, I mean, in terms of his coalition.

Arthur (00:27:12):

of right-wing parties lost traction and their rating was below,

Arthur (00:27:18):

I think 45% even,

Arthur (00:27:20):

which is not enough to have the majority in Knesset.

Arthur (00:27:24):

But right now he is back to 52%.

Arthur (00:27:28):

So what's gonna happen domestically is important.

Arthur (00:27:32):

The protests in Israel also have been dulled by two major factors.

Arthur (00:27:39):

Kind of Trump is speaking about not just the end of the war in Gaza,

Arthur (00:27:43):

but end of the era of terror in the Middle East.

Arthur (00:27:47):

But I think more sound analysis shows that Hamas is still there.

Arthur (00:27:54):

to put pressure on Hamas and in Gaza.

Arthur (00:27:58):

But he is also,

Arthur (00:27:59):

as I said,

Arthur (00:28:01):

the chances of him looking at a war with Iran as a distraction from the domestic

Arthur (00:28:07):

agenda is going to be important to watch.

Arthur (00:28:11):

So,

Arthur (00:28:12):

implosion,

Arthur (00:28:14):

I don't think they're going to give up the attempts at the implosion,

Arthur (00:28:18):

but implosion also means that you need to have a very robust network,

Arthur (00:28:25):

intelligence network within Iran,

Arthur (00:28:27):

and that has suffered some setbacks.

Arthur (00:28:30):

Yes,

Arthur (00:28:31):

Mossad played a huge role during the war,

Arthur (00:28:35):

but they also have lost a significant number of agents.

Arthur (00:28:41):

the foreseeable future, both sides need to replenish their stockpiles of missiles.

Arthur (00:28:50):

So for some time, the status quo is going to hold.

Arthur (00:28:53):

And as I said, for me, the kind of breaking point might be getting closer to June.

Arthur (00:29:00):

to watch closely what's going to happen there.

Arthur (00:29:03):

But there are also chances that no matter what we say,

Arthur (00:29:07):

Netanyahu is going to be able to win the elections in June 26.

Asbed (00:29:12):

Sadly, I didn't hear a fourth scenario that says they'll make peace and coexist.

Arthur (00:29:20):

That, I don't think that's in the making.

Arthur (00:29:24):

Even if Netanyahu goes, I think the issue of the...

Arthur (00:29:29):

nuclear weapons and nuclear threat of Iran, or without even nuclear.

Arthur (00:29:33):

Iran,

Arthur (00:29:34):

as the thorn on the side of Israel,

Arthur (00:29:37):

as the last remaining kind of stronghold of anti-Israeli politics in the Middle

Arthur (00:29:43):

East,

Arthur (00:29:44):

is going to be there for some time.

Arthur (00:29:47):

And for any Israeli government,

Arthur (00:29:51):

even left of center,

Arthur (00:29:53):

that's going to be an issue for years to come.

Hovik (00:29:57):

OK, let's come to Armenia now.

Hovik (00:30:00):

The third president of Armenia,

Hovik (00:30:02):

Serge Sargsyan,

Hovik (00:30:03):

held nearly a seven-hour interview on the Imnemnimi podcast this past week.

Hovik (00:30:10):

Obviously, there's no chance of addressing everything he discussed,

Hovik (00:30:14):

but let's tackle a few interesting points that I was able to highlight.

Hovik (00:30:20):

over time we may be in touch on more because i believe this is going to be in the

Hovik (00:30:23):

political discourse uh all the way until the elections so president Sargsyan said

Hovik (00:30:29):

that there was a proposal from the OSCE Minsk Group that was quite acceptable for

Hovik (00:30:34):

armenia but pashinyan essentially walked away from it

Hovik (00:30:38):

Pashinyan for a long time had denied that such a proposal existed or that he even received it.

Hovik (00:30:46):

He made some excuses like it was addressed to the president of Armenia.

Hovik (00:30:50):

Yeah, wrong address.

Hovik (00:30:51):

Oops, he didn't sign for it when the FedEx came.

Hovik (00:30:56):

Now, he admits actually that there was a proposal.

Hovik (00:31:00):

But they're having problems scanning it.

Hovik (00:31:04):

I don't know how many pages is it, like 2,000, 3,000?

Hovik (00:31:06):

But most of these previous proposals were like two pages.

Hovik (00:31:10):

Anyway, so he says that after they scan it, they will publish it.

Hovik (00:31:13):

But the scanning process takes months, apparently.

Hovik (00:31:15):

So they'll publish it by the end of the year.

Hovik (00:31:17):

Yes, he's a slow reader.

Hovik (00:31:21):

And this little scanner, they're using, I don't know what kind of technology they're using.

Asbed (00:31:25):

They have a Xerox machine from the 60s.

Hovik (00:31:28):

So what do you make of all this flip-flopping, Arthur?

Hovik (00:31:35):

What's with all the denials, of BS, to be honest?

Hovik (00:31:38):

And do you think whatever will be published can be authentic and trustworthy?

Hovik (00:31:44):

Or perhaps it will be doctored or maybe even presented out of context?

Arthur (00:31:49):

Well,

Arthur (00:31:50):

I mean, it's kind of a belated attempt to manage some of the PR issues by the third

Arthur (00:31:59):

president.

Arthur (00:32:00):

I mean, this kind of soul searching for seven hours was, I think, overdue.

Arthur (00:32:09):

It could have been done in shorter parts and long before.

Arthur (00:32:15):

But it's good that it happened.

Arthur (00:32:17):

I must say that I didn't find,

Arthur (00:32:18):

I didn't watch the whole thing,

Arthur (00:32:20):

but I didn't find anything that was

Arthur (00:32:23):

totally new to me or maybe even to anyone in Armenia.

Arthur (00:32:28):

I mean, he said things that already have been discussed,

Arthur (00:32:33):

and some of the things that he said do not—I don't think anyone can cast any

Arthur (00:32:38):

serious doubts about their veracity.

Arthur (00:32:41):

We know what was going on.

Arthur (00:32:42):

We know what happened.

Arthur (00:32:44):

And when you put all these pieces together,

Arthur (00:32:47):

I mean,

Arthur (00:32:49):

the responsibility of Pashinyan for what happened,

Arthur (00:32:54):

is inescapable.

Arthur (00:32:55):

I mean, you cannot really dismiss those accusations.

Arthur (00:33:01):

Obviously,

Arthur (00:33:02):

I mean,

Arthur (00:33:03):

Pashinyan immediately went into writing in social media his rebuttals to what was

Arthur (00:33:10):

said and whatnot,

Arthur (00:33:11):

but the grim reality is that,

Arthur (00:33:15):

A,

Arthur (00:33:17):

He came to power by saying that he's starting negotiations from scratch.

Arthur (00:33:23):

He essentially pulled out Armenia from the process,

Arthur (00:33:26):

insisting that Karabakh Armenians should be brought back to the table,

Arthur (00:33:30):

that that was the critical mistake made by his predecessors,

Arthur (00:33:36):

kind of, again,

Arthur (00:33:37):

blaming them. But he was not able to do that, obviously.

Arthur (00:33:40):

It was impossible to do that.

Arthur (00:33:42):

Starting negotiations from scratch is problematic.

Arthur (00:33:46):

kind of rejecting the proposal that was already on the table was a huge mistake.

Arthur (00:33:53):

Next was overplaying Armenia's alternative.

Arthur (00:33:58):

So if you are pulling out of the negotiation process,

Arthur (00:34:02):

then the war becomes not only inevitable,

Arthur (00:34:06):

but you bring it,

Arthur (00:34:07):

make it closer,

Arthur (00:34:08):

right? I mean, because the other side now has

Arthur (00:34:12):

a kind of not legitimate, but some ways understandable stance, right?

Arthur (00:34:20):

If they are rejecting your proposals, the only means to fix things I have is self-help.

Arthur (00:34:28):

Self-help is a war.

Arthur (00:34:30):

So he overplayed Armenia's ability to fight that war.

Arthur (00:34:34):

Later he said that he,

Arthur (00:34:36):

although he is the commander in chief of the country,

Arthur (00:34:39):

he is not a military man,

Arthur (00:34:41):

so he didn't know,

Arthur (00:34:43):

he didn't realize the balance of power was very different.

Arthur (00:34:46):

And his diplomacy really failed in unbelievable ways,

Arthur (00:34:55):

including their dismissal of the opportunity of Turkey joining Azerbaijan in that.

Arthur (00:35:01):

kind of not seeing what was already happening in terms of preparation to the war

Arthur (00:35:08):

and advanced preparation stage when they were in protracted military exercises

Arthur (00:35:15):

after July developments.

Arthur (00:35:17):

So everything that Serge Sarkisian had to say makes a lot of sense,

Arthur (00:35:24):

except one,

Arthur (00:35:26):

and that gives Pashinyan a little bit of room to play,

Arthur (00:35:30):

right?

Arthur (00:35:32):

So if the proposal was on the table, why didn't you guys accept it?

Arthur (00:35:38):

And he himself has gone on record saying that I couldn't accept it because you'd

Arthur (00:35:43):

call me a traitor had I accepted it.

Arthur (00:35:46):

So meaning that

Arthur (00:35:48):

You were not ready to accept it,

Arthur (00:35:52):

and you were not ready for the war,

Arthur (00:35:53):

and you drove the country to this defeat when you also alienated from the major

Arthur (00:36:03):

ally. Well,

Arthur (00:36:04):

I mean, not entirely alienated,

Arthur (00:36:05):

but you were making moves that were not making Russians very enthusiastic about

Arthur (00:36:11):

playing with you, especially given that they had their own interests with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Asbed (00:36:17):

Arthur, can I also interrupt for one moment?

Asbed (00:36:19):

I mean, for me, I look at what happened during the war.

Asbed (00:36:24):

He basically decided that it was more important for him to protect his reputation

Asbed (00:36:28):

as a non-traitor in exchange for 2,500 to 5,000 Armenian lives.

Asbed (00:36:32):

Exactly.

Asbed (00:36:33):

That's just unacceptable.

Arthur (00:36:35):

Unacceptable.

Arthur (00:36:36):

Both Serge Sarkisian and Kocarian said that

Arthur (00:36:41):

Putin was proposing to stop the war.

Arthur (00:36:45):

I don't know if Aliyah was ready, as one of them claimed.

Arthur (00:36:49):

I think Kocharyan said that even Aliyah was ready to agree with Putin to put an end

Arthur (00:36:54):

somewhere mid-October,

Arthur (00:36:56):

right?

Arthur (00:36:57):

But Pashinyan said that he was going to continue to fight, although his

Arthur (00:37:03):

Chief of Staff was saying that resources were limited and the war needed to be

Arthur (00:37:10):

stopped right away.

Arthur (00:37:11):

That's right.

Asbed (00:37:13):

That was the army leadership also.

Asbed (00:37:15):

The army general chief of staff was telling him, we can't continue this war.

Arthur (00:37:20):

If all these accusations hold,

Arthur (00:37:22):

and they do, I think,

Arthur (00:37:23):

then the only thing that Pashinyan can do is say,

Arthur (00:37:26):

all of it was wrong.

Arthur (00:37:28):

The entire Karabakh movement was wrong.

Arthur (00:37:30):

It was all instigated by Moscow,

Arthur (00:37:34):

and even went as far as to say that had I agreed to the terms of peace in the midst

Arthur (00:37:42):

of that war,

Arthur (00:37:43):

it could mean that Armenia would lose its sovereignty,

Arthur (00:37:46):

implying that the price tag Putin had put for him for the ceasefire was further

Arthur (00:37:54):

integration of Armenia into Russia.

Arthur (00:37:57):

the Russian sphere on par with Belarus or whatever.

Arthur (00:38:01):

Whether that's true or not, I cannot say.

Arthur (00:38:03):

I mean, I haven't seen any interest on the Russian side to do that with Armenia.

Arthur (00:38:10):

The real Russian interest has always been, as I said, no unfriendly power in our backyard.

Arthur (00:38:17):

Belarus and Ukraine are different because they have this fixation on the Slavic Union.

Arthur (00:38:22):

Right.

Arthur (00:38:24):

Or some of the more extreme are

Arthur (00:38:27):

wherever the Slavs or Russian speakers live, that should be more integrated with Russia.

Arthur (00:38:34):

But when it comes to Armenia, Armenia has been seen as

Arthur (00:38:38):

Liability.

Arthur (00:38:40):

Well,

Arthur (00:38:41):

I mean,

Arthur (00:38:42):

in some ways, even as a burden,

Arthur (00:38:43):

but it's kind of the only value it has is the military base that they have there.

Arthur (00:38:51):

And even with that military base in the last decade or so,

Arthur (00:38:55):

and especially with Pashinyan and his anti-CSTO moves and whatnot,

Arthur (00:39:01):

they've been looking at it as,

Arthur (00:39:03):

well, again,

Arthur (00:39:04):

I mean, that base primarily was against Turkey.

Arthur (00:39:07):

And Turkey played its cards really well in Moscow,

Arthur (00:39:11):

persuading Russians that they were even going to be a wedge in the NATO.

Arthur (00:39:20):

So if that's the case, if they can play with Russians on their agenda,

Arthur (00:39:25):

then why the military base even loses its value.

Arthur (00:39:30):

That was certainly an erroneous way of assessing things,

Arthur (00:39:33):

because Turks never gave up or never even could drive that kind of a wedge in NATO,

Arthur (00:39:39):

as we could see

Arthur (00:39:41):

There were very high hopes that they could block Sweden and Finland becoming part

Arthur (00:39:46):

of NATO, but that never happened.

Arthur (00:39:48):

So wrong assessments, wrong calculations, over-reliance on short-term interests in Moscow.

Arthur (00:39:56):

We can go on and on with this, but that does not excuse the Armenian government and Pashinyan.

Arthur (00:40:02):

for doing what they did.

Arthur (00:40:04):

Moreover,

Arthur (00:40:05):

I think Russians wanted to keep the parameters of that war as much secluded as

Arthur (00:40:13):

possible.

Arthur (00:40:14):

So if Armenia had joined Artsakh through mobilization and real war effort,

Arthur (00:40:22):

their fear was that Azerbaijan could start hitting Armenian territory,

Arthur (00:40:27):

and that immediately would invoke a CSTO article about the

Arthur (00:40:32):

support of Armenia under aggression, and they didn't want that.

Arthur (00:40:36):

So that's why Pashinyan was getting very strong messages from Moscow at the time

Arthur (00:40:41):

that you should not commit your troops to crossing into Karabakh.

Arthur (00:40:49):

So all of that happened because the diplomatic war at the negotiation table, he had lost it.

Arthur (00:40:57):

He had lost it.

Arthur (00:40:58):

And therefore, right now, his new narrative is all that was wrong.

Arthur (00:41:04):

Armenia should have been what Armenia was.

Arthur (00:41:07):

Karabakh was a burden.

Arthur (00:41:08):

Karabakh was a problem.

Hovik (00:41:10):

He used the word a leash, I believe, on Armenia's neck.

Arthur (00:41:13):

Yes. And that's an interpretation certainly that does not go well with...

Arthur (00:41:19):

I hope with majority of Armenians,

Arthur (00:41:21):

although I can see that there is also a segment of the population that is really

Arthur (00:41:28):

not just buying into the arguments that Pashinyan is making,

Arthur (00:41:32):

but because they're getting some things that they always wanted to see.

Arthur (00:41:37):

Okay, we don't want a war, and our kids are not going to go and be in the harm's way.

Arthur (00:41:44):

Let's accept what it is, right?

Arthur (00:41:45):

That map that he shows, let's accept that.

Arthur (00:41:48):

But maybe we can live in peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Arthur (00:41:53):

I'm saying that because, as I can see, his narrative has some traction.

Arthur (00:41:59):

I mean, not with the majority of the population, obviously, but some traction with segments.

Arthur (00:42:06):

And he's hoping that that should be enough for him to stay in power and survive,

Arthur (00:42:13):

much as Netanyahu is hoping to survive in June 26,

Arthur (00:42:17):

so does Pashinyan,

Arthur (00:42:19):

with his new narrative about the real Armenia

Arthur (00:42:23):

that this is the border and we're going to be at peace with the neighbors.

Arthur (00:42:27):

But that narrative does not have legs to stand on,

Arthur (00:42:29):

because as we could see,

Arthur (00:42:31):

Azerbaijan is not even making any secrets about their agenda.

Arthur (00:42:37):

And that agenda makes most Armenians really concerned about what's going to happen next.

Arthur (00:42:44):

Because next, a war is just one way to conquer a country.

Arthur (00:42:48):

There are other means to do that.

Arthur (00:42:51):

There are economic levers that can be used.

Arthur (00:42:53):

There are an isolated country that is Armenia,

Arthur (00:42:57):

putting all the levers,

Arthur (00:42:59):

giving all the levers to Turkey and Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:43:02):

only may mean that it may turn into a vassal state of Turkey.

Arthur (00:43:07):

these two powers or one power if one were to look at from their perspective on the issues.

Hovik (00:43:14):

Arthur,

Hovik (00:43:16):

from 2015 to 2019,

Hovik (00:43:17):

Piotr Switalski was ambassador of the EU to Armenia,

Hovik (00:43:23):

and he was a huge sponsor of the so-called civil society in Armenia,

Hovik (00:43:29):

and a big backer of Pashinyan and France,

Hovik (00:43:31):

consequently.

Hovik (00:43:32):

He even wrote a book about the 2018 events called The Armenian Revolution, An Unfinished Cable,

Hovik (00:43:39):

So it comes as no surprise that Switalski was very active during the coup of 2018.

Hovik (00:43:53):

He met with Pashinyan and other leaders.

Hovik (00:43:57):

Serge Sargsyan has so far been very reserved about disclosing more details,

Hovik (00:44:01):

although I can imagine the Armenian government at the time would have a lot of

Hovik (00:44:04):

details on what was going on.

Hovik (00:44:06):

But suffice it to say that one day I think we will learn much more.

Hovik (00:44:10):

During the interview,

Hovik (00:44:11):

however,

Hovik (00:44:12):

President Sargsyan did disclose some new details,

Hovik (00:44:14):

to me at least.

Hovik (00:44:15):

Most famously,

Hovik (00:44:17):

despite the EU leadership sending their congratulations to President Sargsyan and

Hovik (00:44:23):

then afterwards Prime Minister Sargsyan because he got elected as Prime Minister

Hovik (00:44:26):

in the Armenian Parliament,

Hovik (00:44:28):

it appears that Switalski refused to transmit that letter to the Armenian

Hovik (00:44:32):

government for 10 days.

Hovik (00:44:34):

Now, here's the new details.

Hovik (00:44:37):

During the protests,

Hovik (00:44:39):

according to,

Hovik (00:44:40):

again, President Sarkisian,

Hovik (00:44:41):

Switalski met with various people and spread news that Pashinyan had been offered

Hovik (00:44:46):

the deputy prime minister position if he would only calm down the protests.

Hovik (00:44:51):

uh Sargsyan in the interview said he had never made such an offer and it's not

Hovik (00:44:56):

clear who if there was such an offer and who would have made it uh so you know i'm

Hovik (00:45:02):

not sure what sir Sargsyan was insinuating here but why don't you talk about the

Hovik (00:45:08):

role of the eu in armenia in general in 2018 and leading up to it and specifically

Hovik (00:45:13):

if you know anything more about this incident by uh Switalski

Arthur (00:45:17):

Well, I mean, there is a saying, the devil is in details, but in this case, we know the devil.

Arthur (00:45:22):

So the details do not change much in terms of what was going on at the time.

Arthur (00:45:28):

It's obvious that Pashinyan was playing...

Arthur (00:45:33):

with Europeans when he came to power.

Arthur (00:45:37):

Even before,

Arthur (00:45:38):

when he was in the opposition,

Arthur (00:45:40):

he was positioning himself as an anti-Eurasian Union,

Arthur (00:45:46):

CSTO,

Arthur (00:45:48):

and pro-European politician.

Arthur (00:45:50):

When he came to power,

Arthur (00:45:51):

he tried to balance by saying that we're going to have the best relations with

Arthur (00:45:55):

Russia Armenia has ever had and blah,

Arthur (00:45:59):

blah, blah. But for Europeans, it was a chance.

Arthur (00:46:04):

Not only Europeans,

Arthur (00:46:05):

but let's say the West and Americans and all Western powers were interested in,

Arthur (00:46:14):

if not immediately excluding Russia from the region,

Arthur (00:46:19):

but then diminishing its influence and then gradually maybe squeezing it out by

Arthur (00:46:26):

supporting all,

Arthur (00:46:28):

they call it civil society,

Arthur (00:46:30):

but I disagree with the description of what that was.

Arthur (00:46:34):

And in that sense, Serge Sarkisian probably is correct by saying that

Arthur (00:46:40):

They were funded by Europeans and Western governments,

Arthur (00:46:45):

and therefore they were doing what the Western governments wanted them to do,

Arthur (00:46:49):

right?

Arthur (00:46:50):

That's obvious.

Arthur (00:46:52):

But there is a question why...

Arthur (00:46:55):

why things were not taken under control before, right?

Arthur (00:46:59):

So that game was allowed to continue well into 2018.

Arthur (00:47:06):

And I think what I heard Serge Sarkisian say was that he was getting ready to enact

Arthur (00:47:12):

the same laws on controlling politics.

Arthur (00:47:16):

foreign influence in Armenia and whatnot,

Arthur (00:47:18):

except that he was waiting for a precedent,

Arthur (00:47:21):

and the precedent came when Austria enacted such laws.

Arthur (00:47:25):

If it says anything, it says that he was a very cautious player in that.

Arthur (00:47:30):

I mean, if a leader can see that that influence has detrimental effect on Armenia,

Arthur (00:47:38):

I mean, you do that.

Arthur (00:47:39):

You do not wait for someone to set a precedent for you.

Arthur (00:47:42):

If you are waiting for a precedent, it means that you want to justify with others.

Arthur (00:47:48):

And you can say that in the bigger game,

Arthur (00:47:51):

right,

Arthur (00:47:52):

he wanted to play with Europeans,

Arthur (00:47:54):

he wanted to play with the West,

Arthur (00:47:56):

and therefore that was one way for him to keep that track open,

Arthur (00:48:01):

right?

Arthur (00:48:02):

Yes,

Arthur (00:48:03):

understandable,

Arthur (00:48:04):

but you need to make sure that when they cross the red lines,

Arthur (00:48:09):

and they have crossed the red lines in terms of open support.

Arthur (00:48:12):

And Switalski's example is one of many, I think, of open and unprecedented interference

Arthur (00:48:23):

or even intervention in Armenian domestic agenda,

Arthur (00:48:27):

trying to reshape it,

Arthur (00:48:29):

trying to fairly aggressively redirect the foreign policy of the country.

Arthur (00:48:37):

So in some ways, Switalski was just the instrument of that policy.

Arthur (00:48:43):

What he was doing was not just

Arthur (00:48:47):

one person acting, right?

Arthur (00:48:49):

I mean, we kind of, the devil, again, is not just Svitalski.

Arthur (00:48:53):

The devil in this case was whoever was playing that deadly game for Armenia.

Arthur (00:48:59):

And I must say that the most difficult part for me,

Arthur (00:49:03):

when you look at the European Union as an actor in this region,

Arthur (00:49:08):

I mean, they had no problems having excellent,

Arthur (00:49:12):

I would even say,

Arthur (00:49:13):

relations with dictator Aliyev.

Arthur (00:49:16):

a corrupt regime of Aliyev, clearly autocratic.

Arthur (00:49:20):

They didn't have any problems.

Arthur (00:49:22):

They put Armenia on the same level with that regime,

Arthur (00:49:25):

not only with the accession to the Council of Europe and all other stuff,

Arthur (00:49:30):

but every time they were trying to take Armenia down,

Arthur (00:49:35):

no matter how much Armenia progressed

Arthur (00:49:37):

Gradually, slowly, it's a given.

Arthur (00:49:40):

It was not a full-blown democracy and whatnot.

Arthur (00:49:43):

But it was very different from utterly corrupt and autocratic regime,

Arthur (00:49:48):

sultanistic regime of Aliyev.

Arthur (00:49:50):

But they were trying always to keep us on the same level.

Asbed (00:49:55):

100%.

Asbed (00:49:56):

I couldn't agree more with you.

Hovik (00:49:58):

Okay, so I just want to close this topic by,

Hovik (00:50:03):

you know, did we,

Hovik (00:50:05):

did you make note of anything else in the Serge Sargsyan interview that you would

Hovik (00:50:10):

actually like to question,

Hovik (00:50:13):

you know, you would pose a question to Sargsyan himself,

Hovik (00:50:15):

like perhaps shortcomings or things that are still a gap in your,

Hovik (00:50:22):

you know,

Hovik (00:50:23):

understanding of the events?

Arthur (00:50:25):

Well, I think by and large, again, in broad brush, the picture is clear.

Arthur (00:50:32):

There are some details that it will take time until we find out most, if not all.

Arthur (00:50:40):

But in broad brush, the picture is clear.

Arthur (00:50:43):

And I think the new Pashinyan narrative is really not very different from what

Arthur (00:50:49):

behind closed doors,

Arthur (00:50:50):

some of the

Arthur (00:50:51):

European and American diplomats would be telling Armenian presidents before

Arthur (00:50:58):

Pashinyan,

Arthur (00:51:00):

change your relations with Turkey,

Arthur (00:51:04):

come to some kind of rapprochement with Turkey,

Arthur (00:51:08):

settle Karabakh,

Arthur (00:51:12):

and that will diminish the Russian influence on you.

Arthur (00:51:16):

I mean, I'm saying what was said,

Arthur (00:51:20):

some of it even publicly,

Arthur (00:51:22):

and then you will have legitimate aspirations to become part of the Western world.

Arthur (00:51:28):

So that's exactly what Pashinyan is with some adjustments, right?

Arthur (00:51:33):

But the theme is the same.

Arthur (00:51:36):

The theme is the same, that we now have an opportunity.

Arthur (00:51:40):

The future is now.

Arthur (00:51:42):

Pashinyan is saying.

Arthur (00:51:43):

So the future that we dreamt about is now.

Arthur (00:51:46):

And what is that future that he and civil society,

Arthur (00:51:50):

the so-called civil society,

Arthur (00:51:51):

dreamt about is exactly that.

Arthur (00:51:54):

And no, Karabakh, forget about it.

Arthur (00:51:56):

We're closing that page.

Arthur (00:51:57):

We are trying to build normal relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan by doing

Arthur (00:52:04):

whatever they demand.

Arthur (00:52:06):

And therefore, we should be more acceptable for the West.

Arthur (00:52:11):

The problem he has with that narrative is that the West still doesn't need you.

Arthur (00:52:16):

They need you in as much as you are, preferably,

Arthur (00:52:22):

taking openly anti-Russian stance.

Arthur (00:52:24):

But even Georgia doesn't do it anymore, the government of Georgia, that is.

Arthur (00:52:28):

I mean, they still have certainly opposition and groups that would not accept that.

Arthur (00:52:35):

But by and large,

Arthur (00:52:36):

their government is playing a very cautious game here,

Arthur (00:52:39):

doesn't want to become a proxy challenging Russia.

Arthur (00:52:44):

on these issues.

Arthur (00:52:46):

So would they be satisfied if they just at this stage diminish the Russian

Arthur (00:52:53):

influence in Armenia or get more anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia?

Arthur (00:52:58):

Yes, of course.

Arthur (00:52:59):

So they have achieved their goal.

Arthur (00:53:02):

And where are you going to go after this?

Arthur (00:53:06):

Yeah.

Arthur (00:53:07):

it's obvious that you're going to continue to be doing what you've been doing.

Arthur (00:53:12):

You cannot really,

Arthur (00:53:13):

I mean,

Arthur (00:53:14):

now make about face and 180 degrees and say,

Arthur (00:53:17):

I'm disappointed in the West too.

Arthur (00:53:20):

Although Pashinyan is capable of doing all sorts of moves, right?

Arthur (00:53:25):

If that satisfied his political agenda and interests.

Arthur (00:53:31):

And I think he's also in some ways is losing his touch with reality because he's

Arthur (00:53:38):

been increasingly seeing himself as the kind of founding father of new Armenia,

Arthur (00:53:46):

kind of I'm the one who's

Arthur (00:53:47):

That's why he wants a fourth republic, the new identity.

Arthur (00:53:51):

Well, the fourth republic, the new identity, new real Armenia.

Arthur (00:53:55):

This is what it's going to be.

Arthur (00:53:56):

And he's the founder and even the new church.

Arthur (00:53:59):

He's the kind of founding father of this new thing, a historical figure.

Arthur (00:54:04):

And I think he's overplaying on at least several of these kind of instruments.

Arthur (00:54:14):

He's overplaying and

Arthur (00:54:17):

A false note,

Arthur (00:54:18):

constantly there are false notes,

Arthur (00:54:20):

as in his fight with the church,

Arthur (00:54:22):

as in his agenda of peace,

Arthur (00:54:26):

kind of every time he gets a setback when Aliyev speaks.

Arthur (00:54:32):

And then they have to explain what does it mean when Aliyev says that.

Arthur (00:54:36):

It means that Aliyev hasn't changed his mind.

Arthur (00:54:39):

It means that the agenda has not changed at all.

Arthur (00:54:43):

But they were trying and trying hard to persuade us that it's going to be all over.

Arthur (00:54:49):

It's going to be all okay.

Arthur (00:54:51):

What's next?

Arthur (00:54:52):

If he agrees to,

Arthur (00:54:54):

I mean, if he stays in power after 26,

Arthur (00:54:57):

he's certainly going to go and do what Turkey and Azerbaijan are going to be

Arthur (00:55:02):

demanding.

Arthur (00:55:03):

Because, as I said, I mean, he's now going to be even more dependent on them.

Arthur (00:55:08):

You don't want a war?

Arthur (00:55:09):

Therefore, do this.

Arthur (00:55:11):

And the list is big.

Arthur (00:55:13):

And one of the things that they will certainly do, and Aliyev again, went public.

Arthur (00:55:18):

And no matter how Alain Simonian says that it's only for the domestic consumption,

Arthur (00:55:24):

these things are not for domestic consumption.

Arthur (00:55:26):

They have been part of their agenda since 90s.

Arthur (00:55:30):

Since 90s. And that hasn't changed.

Hovik (00:55:33):

Okay, now moving on to the second president of Armenia's interview.

Hovik (00:55:39):

Robert Kocharyan gave an hour-long interview to Channel 5.

Hovik (00:55:44):

I personally watched it, but I'm not sure if there's a lot of new material.

Hovik (00:55:48):

But Kocharyan discussed some points which are corroborated by Foreign Minister of

Hovik (00:55:54):

Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:55:55):

Jeyhun Bayramov.

Hovik (00:55:57):

that there were clear opportunities during the war when Pashinyan could have

Hovik (00:56:00):

accepted the ceasefire and stopped the losses.

Hovik (00:56:04):

I think that October 17, 19 timeframe was according to Kocharyan at that time.

Hovik (00:56:13):

Kocharyan said,

Hovik (00:56:14):

in fact,

Hovik (00:56:15):

I mean, Serge Sargsyan and all the former leadership of Armenia almost were in Artsakh during

Hovik (00:56:19):

the war.

Hovik (00:56:20):

And the government of Artsakh

Hovik (00:56:24):

basically left them waiting.

Hovik (00:56:28):

You wouldn't even meet with them.

Arthur (00:56:32):

Yeah, he will eat me, he said it.

Hovik (00:56:35):

Yeah, he will eat me alive.

Hovik (00:56:37):

Basically, when Kocharyan asked to meet with Arayik Harutyunyan,

Hovik (00:56:41):

Harutyunyan said,

Hovik (00:56:42):

Pashinyan will eat me alive if I do,

Hovik (00:56:45):

indicating the strong influence that Pashinyan had in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:56:50):

Of course, we can't talk much about Arayik Harutyunyan and others because they're in jail in

Hovik (00:56:57):

Baku right now.

Hovik (00:56:59):

But in general,

Hovik (00:57:00):

I get the impression of a spineless Armenian and Artsakh leadership more interested

Hovik (00:57:06):

in covering their behind than doing the right thing for their people and their

Hovik (00:57:10):

servicemen.

Hovik (00:57:11):

Your thoughts, any key takeaways from Robert Kocharyan's interview?

Arthur (00:57:15):

Again, I mean, he mostly reiterated the points that he had made in the past.

Arthur (00:57:22):

Maybe some small detail here and there that he added.

Arthur (00:57:27):

when it comes to that peace opportunity or when they offered the three former

Arthur (00:57:32):

presidents to make a trip to Moscow,

Arthur (00:57:35):

how it was not,

Arthur (00:57:36):

but we knew all of that.

Arthur (00:57:37):

I mean, it was happening in real time and it was covered.

Arthur (00:57:42):

They were offering their services and their services were essentially rejected by

Arthur (00:57:48):

Pashinyan's regime.

Arthur (00:57:50):

Now, he,

Arthur (00:57:54):

stopped short of saying that the remote control for Pashinyan was probably

Arthur (00:58:02):

elsewhere,

Arthur (00:58:04):

because you need evidence to go that far,

Arthur (00:58:07):

right?

Arthur (00:58:08):

But you cannot also rule that out.

Arthur (00:58:11):

That's the whole point.

Arthur (00:58:14):

And I think,

Arthur (00:58:16):

as I said in my opening remarks,

Arthur (00:58:19):

this is one way,

Arthur (00:58:20):

I mean,

Arthur (00:58:21):

Pashinyan wanted a debate.

Arthur (00:58:23):

It is happening.

Arthur (00:58:24):

That's also a way of debating it, right?

Arthur (00:58:27):

When you're making points that are counter to the propaganda, 7x24 on public television owned by

Arthur (00:58:40):

the ruling party.

Arthur (00:58:42):

If that message gets out,

Arthur (00:58:44):

it leaves,

Arthur (00:58:45):

you know,

Arthur (00:58:46):

for some people,

Arthur (00:58:47):

some space to consider other interpretations of what happened.

Arthur (00:58:54):

I think the problem that we also have is that this is happening as part of the campaign.

Arthur (00:59:03):

It's not full swing campaign,

Arthur (00:59:06):

electoral campaign yet,

Arthur (00:59:08):

but it's also part of the election,

Arthur (00:59:10):

and it's going to be one of the topics in that agenda.

Arthur (00:59:15):

electoral agenda.

Arthur (00:59:17):

The problem that both Serge Sargsyan and Kocharyan have is that as the former

Arthur (00:59:25):

leaders of Armenia,

Arthur (00:59:26):

and that has to do with the political culture in this country,

Arthur (00:59:31):

once there are labels,

Arthur (00:59:33):

they are permanent.

Arthur (00:59:34):

I mean, once they stick a label, it stays for a long time.

Arthur (00:59:39):

It's going to take a lot of hard work

Arthur (00:59:43):

And they missed that, as I said, I mean, it's belated PR.

Arthur (00:59:48):

They missed the opportunity to come clean with their own record of what they had done.

Arthur (00:59:55):

Yes, Kocharyan also said that his

Arthur (00:59:59):

terms as president were the most peaceful time in Armenia.

Arthur (01:00:04):

Of course, Pashinyan can say,

Arthur (01:00:05):

oh,

Arthur (01:00:06):

there were all sorts of things happening in skirmishes in Artsakh and Border and

Arthur (01:00:13):

whatnot.

Arthur (01:00:15):

And this can go on and on.

Arthur (01:00:17):

But will the two presidents who are trying to

Arthur (01:00:23):

stay politically active,

Arthur (01:00:25):

if not immediately and directly,

Arthur (01:00:27):

especially Serge Sarkisian,

Arthur (01:00:29):

but then their parties.

Arthur (01:00:31):

Will they be able to garner more votes by stepping up the plate and giving more

Arthur (01:00:41):

details about what happened?

Arthur (01:00:43):

I don't think so because,

Arthur (01:00:46):

again,

Arthur (01:00:47):

what they're saying is no,

Arthur (01:00:49):

and it's not helping them recover from that

Arthur (01:00:54):

you know, stigma that has been placed on them.

Arthur (01:00:57):

That's the unfortunate part.

Arthur (01:00:58):

That's part of immature, I think, political culture of Armenia.

Arthur (01:01:06):

But that's the reality that they will have to face going into this campaign.

Arthur (01:01:11):

So I think that the interviews are welcome in terms of informing the public and

Arthur (01:01:18):

providing the public counter arguments to the state propaganda,

Arthur (01:01:23):

but not sufficient to help them overcome the stigma.

Asbed (01:01:29):

Arthur,

Asbed (01:01:30):

Kocharyan said that he hoped in 2026 that the Armenian people will make,

Asbed (01:01:35):

actually said, must make the right choice and get rid of these evil people.

Asbed (01:01:39):

The question to me was, does the opposition have the chops to remove these authorities?

Arthur (01:01:44):

I think, again, when I'm asked about future, that's part of my professional background.

Arthur (01:01:51):

I always think in scenarios,

Arthur (01:01:54):

and there are three scenarios,

Arthur (01:01:57):

and all three have different likelihoods.

Arthur (01:01:59):

One is

Arthur (01:02:01):

They do manage to mobilize the population.

Arthur (01:02:05):

The turnout in the elections is going to be so high,

Arthur (01:02:09):

and the negative ranking that the ruling party has is going to break their back.

Arthur (01:02:16):

So they're not going to be able to even make it to the parliament.

Arthur (01:02:20):

The scenario, possible scenario, possible.

Arthur (01:02:23):

Probable, very low probability at this point.

Arthur (01:02:26):

And I can say why I think it's low right now.

Arthur (01:02:30):

May change, it may, but we'll need to see.

Arthur (01:02:33):

We need to follow the variables that would allow that scenario to materialize or

Arthur (01:02:41):

not to materialize.

Arthur (01:02:42):

The second scenario is that Pashinyan manages to replicate elections of 21.

Arthur (01:02:49):

He again gets the...

Arthur (01:02:53):

majority,

Arthur (01:02:54):

his party gets the majority or the coalition gets a majority in the parliament,

Arthur (01:02:59):

and we go into the next phase of turning Armenia into a Turkey-Azerbaijan vassal

Arthur (01:03:07):

state,

Arthur (01:03:09):

now totally dependent on them.

Arthur (01:03:10):

And then the other scenario,

Arthur (01:03:13):

which I think is most likely right now,

Arthur (01:03:16):

is that he manages to get to the parliament,

Arthur (01:03:19):

but not enough to get the majority and to become the prime minister again, right?

Arthur (01:03:26):

Not enough even with the coalition parties,

Arthur (01:03:29):

the Minyan parties that pocket opposition,

Arthur (01:03:32):

the so-called opposition that he has created.

Arthur (01:03:36):

That scenario is both possible and probable,

Arthur (01:03:39):

not kind of probability slightly lower than the first one,

Arthur (01:03:44):

right?

Arthur (01:03:46):

Which right now,

Arthur (01:03:48):

seems to be still a possibility.

Arthur (01:03:52):

Keeping him out of the parliament,

Arthur (01:03:54):

I don't think so,

Arthur (01:03:55):

because he still has a significant administrative resource.

Arthur (01:04:01):

He controls it.

Arthur (01:04:03):

He has all the buttons and he can enact policies that will be very welcomed by

Arthur (01:04:10):

certain segments of the population.

Arthur (01:04:12):

It can be

Arthur (01:04:15):

related to the military service,

Arthur (01:04:17):

it can be related to visa liberalization with Europe,

Arthur (01:04:22):

it can be a promise of the

Arthur (01:04:27):

AI paradise in Armenia and peace in Armenia and whatnot.

Arthur (01:04:32):

So he will be playing all of those.

Arthur (01:04:34):

But I don't think those will help him.

Arthur (01:04:37):

He will still have to rely very heavily on the administrative resource and the networks.

Arthur (01:04:43):

Because in Armenia,

Arthur (01:04:44):

it's not just people who are in the government and people who depend on the

Arthur (01:04:50):

government when it comes to their paychecks.

Arthur (01:04:54):

It's the network around these people.

Arthur (01:04:57):

So it's much larger than just administrative resource.

Arthur (01:05:00):

He will rely on that primarily.

Arthur (01:05:04):

And then I do not even rule out that at this time, because it's a life or death.

Arthur (01:05:12):

politically for him,

Arthur (01:05:13):

and maybe even not politically,

Arthur (01:05:15):

and he may go even for much cruder violations of that.

Arthur (01:05:20):

I mean,

Arthur (01:05:21):

if we just look at the local elections in Armenia,

Arthur (01:05:24):

I mean, people who have beaten their party in elections have been removed from power.

Arthur (01:05:30):

Unfortunately, one was killed even.

Asbed (01:05:32):

Yeah, that's right.

Arthur (01:05:34):

Arrested, killed, removed from power.

Arthur (01:05:36):

I mean, that has been the reality.

Arthur (01:05:39):

And it is happening.

Arthur (01:05:40):

And we do not have Switalski anymore.

Asbed (01:05:44):

We have extremely quiet Western diplomats.

Arthur (01:05:46):

We have new Switalskis who condone all of that, right?

Arthur (01:05:50):

Look at what he's doing with the church.

Arthur (01:05:52):

And look at the sheer and very obvious violations of the Constitution that he...

Arthur (01:06:02):

he can get away with.

Arthur (01:06:04):

And there is nothing that is being said from- Arthur, you spoke of networks.

Asbed (01:06:09):

There are a couple of networks with some level of momentum in them.

Asbed (01:06:13):

For example, Tatoyan and his Wings of Unity and Karapetyan and his Mer Dzevov.

Asbed (01:06:21):

What's your assessment of these movements briefly?

Arthur (01:06:25):

Yeah,

Arthur (01:06:26):

well, I think the 60 percent of the undecided sort of voters who have this desire to see

Arthur (01:06:33):

a third force,

Arthur (01:06:36):

political force,

Arthur (01:06:38):

is significant in Armenia.

Arthur (01:06:40):

And these parties,

Arthur (01:06:42):

if they become,

Arthur (01:06:44):

well, I mean, Tatoyan,

Arthur (01:06:45):

this political party,

Arthur (01:06:47):

he already announced that he's going to participate,

Arthur (01:06:51):

and if the movement

Arthur (01:06:53):

Frank Sinatra movement, I'll have it my way.

Arthur (01:07:00):

That movement has yet to make the claim for political agenda,

Arthur (01:07:07):

although it's obvious that they are going in that direction.

Arthur (01:07:12):

It's not clear to me what Pashinyan is going to be doing.

Arthur (01:07:17):

He also understands that

Arthur (01:07:19):

They are probably more serious claimants for the 60%.

Arthur (01:07:24):

I mean,

Arthur (01:07:25):

if they're going to get most votes from that 60%,

Arthur (01:07:29):

that's a very dangerous scenario for them.

Arthur (01:07:31):

So he will be doing everything to block that from happening.

Arthur (01:07:35):

And again, I mean, there are no red lines that he's not going to be crossing.

Arthur (01:07:41):

He's not doing anything active right now,

Arthur (01:07:43):

but that doesn't mean that he will not when time is right for him to act.

Arthur (01:07:50):

If he really sees that,

Arthur (01:07:51):

for instance,

Arthur (01:07:52):

Tatoyan is getting some gravity and traction,

Arthur (01:07:56):

some of the public opinion surveys I've seen

Arthur (01:08:01):

are not yet giving him much of a chance to get the majority of votes.

Arthur (01:08:09):

Yes,

Arthur (01:08:10):

he is going to be struggling,

Arthur (01:08:12):

most likely has chances to get into the parliament,

Arthur (01:08:15):

but not beyond that.

Arthur (01:08:17):

So I think one of the problems we have with the opposition field, instead of uniting

Arthur (01:08:25):

with one agenda, which is we're going into these elections with one goal.

Arthur (01:08:32):

Pashinyan has to be out.

Arthur (01:08:35):

That's the goal.

Arthur (01:08:37):

They are coming up with their own programs.

Arthur (01:08:41):

These programs are very similar, maybe slight differences, but most

Arthur (01:08:47):

are right of the center with some kind of promises that are really from the leftist

Arthur (01:08:53):

agenda,

Arthur (01:08:54):

kind of social justice and whatnot,

Arthur (01:08:56):

but primarily they are right of the center.

Arthur (01:09:00):

Their only kind of competing advantage is the personal charisma and the personality, right?

Arthur (01:09:09):

Do we trust this guy or do we not trust that guy?

Arthur (01:09:12):

That is not very healthy because,

Arthur (01:09:15):

look,

Arthur (01:09:16):

if I'm promising,

Arthur (01:09:17):

I'm coming up with a program,

Arthur (01:09:19):

and I'm promising you that there will be major changes in health care,

Arthur (01:09:25):

in foreign policy,

Arthur (01:09:27):

in this and that,

Arthur (01:09:28):

okay,

Arthur (01:09:29):

it's a beautiful program,

Arthur (01:09:30):

but it turns out that you got into parliament with a 7 percent or 10 percent even

Arthur (01:09:36):

vote, and you are not the one to implement that program.

Arthur (01:09:39):

So what's going to happen to voters who cast their vote for you?

Arthur (01:09:44):

And Pashinyan is still prime minister.

Arthur (01:09:47):

It's going to bring more apathy.

Asbed (01:09:49):

But you know,

Asbed (01:09:50):

Arthur,

Asbed (01:09:51):

I think you're absolutely right that there is a 60% plus disaffected contingent of

Asbed (01:09:57):

the Armenian voter base.

Asbed (01:09:59):

This is an opportunity for if the opposition could ever come together under a

Asbed (01:10:05):

unified banner,

Asbed (01:10:06):

like you said,

Asbed (01:10:07):

and

Asbed (01:10:08):

drive towards a goal,

Asbed (01:10:09):

there's a huge opportunity in attracting all these voters who basically say,

Asbed (01:10:14):

I'm not going to vote,

Asbed (01:10:15):

or I don't plan to vote,

Asbed (01:10:16):

or I don't want to say what I'm going to do.

Arthur (01:10:20):

I think what would make a lot of sense to me if they said that they are going into

Arthur (01:10:25):

this election with one purpose of defeating Pashinyan and taking that force out of

Arthur (01:10:32):

the parliament,

Arthur (01:10:34):

That would make a lot of sense,

Arthur (01:10:35):

but that would mean that they're not coming promising to become a new prime

Arthur (01:10:39):

minister who would take the moon for us,

Arthur (01:10:42):

right? I mean, turn this country into a paradise or whatever they're promising.

Arthur (01:10:48):

Here is the, I think,

Arthur (01:10:52):

a real challenge with that, with that promise.

Arthur (01:10:56):

So what they should promise then,

Arthur (01:10:58):

we get to the parliament,

Arthur (01:11:00):

we get the Pashinyan out,

Arthur (01:11:02):

and we then go to another election,

Arthur (01:11:06):

and that election will decide

Arthur (01:11:09):

the fate of who's going to have the majority, who's going to be the prime minister.

Arthur (01:11:14):

Otherwise,

Arthur (01:11:15):

in some ways,

Arthur (01:11:16):

they're going to play the same game that Pashinyan is going to be happy with.

Arthur (01:11:21):

Because coming with a program,

Arthur (01:11:23):

you already are participating with him,

Arthur (01:11:26):

kind of discussing programmatic issues,

Arthur (01:11:30):

voters are going to be lost,

Arthur (01:11:31):

or he's promising the same thing.

Arthur (01:11:33):

He's in power.

Arthur (01:11:34):

Why should we trust this guy?

Arthur (01:11:36):

It's all kind of going to be further fragmenting that 60 percent.

Arthur (01:11:41):

And that's what Pashinyan would like to see.

Arthur (01:11:44):

Instead, they should say, you 60 percent vote for anybody but Pashinyan and his minion parties.

Arthur (01:11:53):

Let us get the majority in the parliament and we will vote him out.

Arthur (01:11:58):

And after that,

Arthur (01:11:59):

we will set a new agenda for the new government in Armenia by new fan-free

Arthur (01:12:06):

elections.

Asbed (01:12:07):

Arthur, we need to wind down because of time, but there is one thing I latch down to.

Asbed (01:12:12):

I loved your name for the new party, the Frank Sinatra party.

Asbed (01:12:16):

Maybe they should call themselves with that catchy name and the Mer Dzevov people can go forward.

Arthur (01:12:22):

They should play that song.

Arthur (01:12:23):

I'll do it my way.

Asbed (01:12:25):

Let me ask one quick question on the fact that Narek Karapetyan was on Tucker

Asbed (01:12:31):

Carlson and close after that.

Asbed (01:12:33):

Without going into the details,

Asbed (01:12:35):

this was also like an hour and a half between him and Robert Amsterdam on the show.

Asbed (01:12:40):

What were your main takeaways from this thing?

Asbed (01:12:45):

Who was it for?

Asbed (01:12:47):

Why did they do this?

Asbed (01:12:48):

And with what outcomes in mind?

Arthur (01:12:50):

Well,

Arthur (01:12:51):

I think it's obvious if you look at Tucker Carlson and his audience,

Arthur (01:12:57):

right, in the United States,

Arthur (01:12:59):

and you'll probably know more about the configuration of that audience.

Arthur (01:13:04):

But the major thing was the Christian kind of conservative take and trying to start

Arthur (01:13:16):

building bridges with that

Arthur (01:13:19):

constituency in the United States, right?

Arthur (01:13:21):

I mean, kind of,

Arthur (01:13:22):

we are the Christian nation,

Arthur (01:13:25):

there are these problems,

Arthur (01:13:27):

the war and everything kind of framing it in the religious context,

Arthur (01:13:33):

more or less.

Arthur (01:13:35):

Especially with what I heard Narek Karapetyan say, which makes a lot of sense.

Arthur (01:13:42):

But at the same time, I think that

Arthur (01:13:45):

We should not be playing just with one political force in the United States,

Arthur (01:13:52):

no matter how powerful that force seems to be or is.

Arthur (01:13:57):

You need to be playing with all.

Arthur (01:14:00):

for the country, for the nation.

Arthur (01:14:02):

It's interesting that the most important issues,

Arthur (01:14:07):

important issues for me,

Arthur (01:14:10):

yes, Tucker Carlson was saying,

Arthur (01:14:12):

oh, our taxpayer money was going to support this and that.

Arthur (01:14:16):

I don't like it, he was saying.

Arthur (01:14:18):

Yes, very good.

Arthur (01:14:19):

There is a more important issue for

Arthur (01:14:23):

maybe liberal Americans,

Arthur (01:14:25):

and maybe not just liberal Americans,

Arthur (01:14:28):

any Republican Americans,

Arthur (01:14:30):

there is no republic in Armenia.

Arthur (01:14:34):

And that's the message.

Arthur (01:14:36):

That's the message.

Arthur (01:14:37):

Support republic in Armenia.

Arthur (01:14:39):

Put pressure on Pashinyan, who has observed all branches of power.

Arthur (01:14:45):

There are no checks and balances.

Arthur (01:14:47):

There is no independent judiciary.

Arthur (01:14:50):

And as I said,

Arthur (01:14:51):

just as Netanyahu has done in Israel,

Arthur (01:14:54):

and even worse than that,

Arthur (01:14:57):

there is no rule of law in Armenia.

Arthur (01:15:00):

There is rule by law in Armenia.

Arthur (01:15:02):

Law is Pashinyan.

Arthur (01:15:05):

He wants someone to be arrested, it will be happening.

Asbed (01:15:09):

It's a pattern of force.

Arthur (01:15:10):

And that's not what a republic is.

Arthur (01:15:13):

And the United States should be interested in having Armenia a republic.

Arthur (01:15:18):

And then we'll talk about democracy and all other things.

Arthur (01:15:21):

But you cannot have democracy if you do not have a republic.

Arthur (01:15:24):

And we do not have one right now.

Asbed (01:15:26):

Okay. Well, happy note.

Asbed (01:15:28):

Let's close on that one.

Asbed (01:15:30):

Thank you, Arthur, for joining us and sharing your insight.

Arthur (01:15:33):

Thank you. Thank you for having me.

Arthur (01:15:36):

Thank you. Thank you.

Asbed (01:15:37):

That was our Week in Review show.

Asbed (01:15:39):

We've been talking with Mr. Arthur G. Martirosyan, who is senior consultant with CM Partners.

Asbed (01:15:45):

And in 1994,

Asbed (01:15:47):

after graduating from Yale University,

Asbed (01:15:48):

he joined Conflict Management Group and Harvard Negotiations Project.

Asbed (01:15:53):

He has since worked in conflicts in the former Soviet Union,

Asbed (01:15:56):

the Middle East,

Asbed (01:15:57):

the Balkans,

Asbed (01:15:58):

Africa,

Asbed (01:15:59):

and Latin America.

Hovik (01:16:00):

All right, well, I hope you enjoyed this discussion.

Hovik (01:16:04):

We are jumping through hoops to get these regular podcast episodes to you.

Hovik (01:16:10):

I am currently extremely jet-lagged and in Europe, but I decided to do this anyways.

Hovik (01:16:15):

And one way you can show your things is first,

Hovik (01:16:18):

make sure you're subscribed,

Hovik (01:16:20):

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Hovik (01:16:21):

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Hovik (01:16:22):

But also, if you want to feel extra special in our hearts, then go to podcasts.groong.org.

Hovik (01:16:30):

And whatever you can contribute,

Hovik (01:16:32):

it will go to improving our reach and producing more content that you like.

Hovik (01:16:41):

So thank you for your support.

Hovik (01:16:44):

I'm Hovik Manucharyan, somewhere in Europe.

Asbed (01:16:49):

Well, at this point, we're going to start relying on airport Wi-Fi, Hovik.

Asbed (01:16:53):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian.

Asbed (01:16:54):

I'm still in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:16:57):

And I'm on my way to Armenia.

Hovik (01:16:58):

Yeah, can't wait to be back.

Hovik (01:17:00):

But yeah, right now I'm in sort of a purgatory.

Hovik (01:17:05):

Anyway.

Asbed (01:17:06):

Talk to you next week.

Hovik (01:17:08):

Take care, guys.

Hovik (01:17:09):

Bye.

Asbed (01:17:09):

Bye-bye.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Arthur G Martirosyan

Guest

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