Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Sergei Melkonian - Ukraine, Iran & Israel, Vagharshapat Municipal Outcome | Ep 486, Nov 16, 2025

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 486

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Groong Week in Review - November 16, 2025

Topics:

  • Ukraine and Iran-Israel Conflicts
  • C5+1 in Washington DC
  • Vagharshapat/Etchmiadzin Municipal

Guest: Sergei Melkonian

Hosts:

Episode 486 | Recorded: November 17, 2025

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/486

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/53k2AVy6gAA

#ArmeniaPolitics #SouthCaucasus #UkraineWar #IranIsrael


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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone.

Asbed (00:00:05):

Welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for November 16, 2025.

Asbed (00:00:10):

Today,

Asbed (00:00:11):

we're going to be talking with Dr.

Asbed (00:00:12):

Sergei Melkonian of the APRI,

Asbed (00:00:15):

which is a think tank based in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:18):

Hello, Sergei.

Asbed (00:00:19):

Welcome back to the Groong Podcast.

Sergei (00:00:22):

Thank you for inviting me.

Hovik (00:00:26):

Glad to have you back again as well.

Hovik (00:00:30):

And let's begin our topics covering a little bit outside of our region and then

Hovik (00:00:35):

we'll talk about Armenia as well.

Hovik (00:00:37):

So in Ukraine over the past week,

Hovik (00:00:39):

Russia keeps grinding forward and we keep hearing about cities like Pokrovsk being

Hovik (00:00:47):

somewhere encircled.

Hovik (00:00:49):

Meanwhile, Ukraine is hitting Russian refineries and export terminals.

Hovik (00:00:54):

while Russia is, you know, pummeling Ukraine's own electrical grid.

Hovik (00:01:00):

Meanwhile, there are talks about corruption scandals in Kyiv now reaching Zelensky's old inner

Hovik (00:01:07):

circle.

Hovik (00:01:08):

And there are a lot of events brewing around Ukraine,

Hovik (00:01:12):

but I wanted to understand your assessment of where the Ukraine war is currently,

Hovik (00:01:19):

and what is the most likely trajectory of this war going forward?

Sergei (00:01:23):

That's a maybe $1 billion question.

Sergei (00:01:25):

What will be like in a short-term run?

Hovik (00:01:30):

We don't have that much, but I'm sure our readers are $1 billion worth thankful to you.

Sergei (00:01:38):

Definitely the situation over Pokrovsk and Mirnograd is extremely complicated for

Sergei (00:01:45):

the Ukrainian side.

Sergei (00:01:47):

I've just recently this morning checked

Sergei (00:01:52):

encircled.

Sergei (00:01:53):

There is a well-prepared Ukrainian military groups,

Sergei (00:01:58):

partly they are still there,

Sergei (00:02:00):

they are not evacuated.

Sergei (00:02:02):

Otherwise, Russians will be, for Russians, it will be much more easier to finally encircle it.

Sergei (00:02:08):

But it's important to mention that it's not a strategic victory for Russia.

Sergei (00:02:15):

It's mostly tactical success.

Sergei (00:02:18):

But it's also obvious that if they take

Sergei (00:02:21):

under control of this area,

Sergei (00:02:23):

they will have much more opportunity for further advancement because the terrain,

Sergei (00:02:32):

the geography will be much more easier to use during winter when you don't have

Sergei (00:02:39):

like

Sergei (00:02:40):

natural some obstacles.

Sergei (00:02:42):

And as far as we understand, Ukraine did not prepare what do they call the city fortress.

Sergei (00:02:55):

approximately one year to at least encircle and not even to take militarily this

Sergei (00:03:04):

area,

Sergei (00:03:05):

this street or town or city.

Sergei (00:03:07):

So that will be much more easier for them to continue their advancement.

Sergei (00:03:12):

So this is the strategic test for Ukrainian army during winter season.

Sergei (00:03:20):

winter period,

Sergei (00:03:21):

because even the advancement in winter will be a new challenge for the Ukrainian

Sergei (00:03:32):

army.

Sergei (00:03:33):

And we see still the Russian military has still enough capacity to continue to slowly advance.

Sergei (00:03:50):

side stated that they've stopped any negotiations.

Sergei (00:03:54):

So it means that the hands of Russian military,

Sergei (00:03:59):

they are free, they are open to do whatever they want.

Sergei (00:04:03):

And the key assessment that we read from Russian side is,

Sergei (00:04:07):

okay, if you don't agree to have a,

Sergei (00:04:09):

not a ceasefire,

Sergei (00:04:10):

but a peace deal,

Sergei (00:04:12):

now in a short term round,

Sergei (00:04:14):

you will be in a

Sergei (00:04:22):

different expectations to stop the war till the end of 2025 but as we see the

Sergei (00:04:31):

situation on the on the front line most probably the work will continue in 2026

Sergei (00:04:40):

because we didn't see that Russia was raised

Sergei (00:04:52):

different Russian circles,

Sergei (00:04:54):

that Zelensky prepared some plan related to all points that Russia was rising

Sergei (00:05:03):

during negotiations.

Sergei (00:05:05):

For example, Ukraine is not ready to leave unilaterally all the regions.

Sergei (00:05:14):

to take the control,

Sergei (00:05:15):

but they're ready to transfer the control over these areas that are under Ukrainian

Sergei (00:05:20):

control to some international forces.

Sergei (00:05:23):

There are some rumors that in Ukraine there are discussions to change the status of

Sergei (00:05:28):

Russian language,

Sergei (00:05:29):

etc.

Sergei (00:05:30):

But Ukraine will not agree on any demilitarization agenda somehow.

Sergei (00:05:36):

But still, there are these rumors that there are discussions despite the

Sergei (00:05:44):

At the same time,

Sergei (00:05:45):

we see that because the Ukrainian track also directly interconnected with

Sergei (00:05:51):

U.S.-Russia negotiations,

Sergei (00:05:53):

both related to this disarmament agreement,

Sergei (00:05:57):

the START-3,

Sergei (00:05:58):

that will be expired in the beginning of next year,

Sergei (00:06:01):

Russians sent their suggestion to the American side to have this agreement at least

Sergei (00:06:09):

for one year until they do not agree on some new agreement.

Sergei (00:06:15):

There is another option that China somehow should be engaged under these new

Sergei (00:06:20):

negotiations over a new START treaty.

Sergei (00:06:30):

same time to not like persuade like Russians they have only success definitely

Sergei (00:06:35):

Russia has its own problems first of all in terms of economy we see that the very

Sergei (00:06:41):

unpopular measures were done from Russian authorities related to different tax

Sergei (00:06:48):

reform and the reaction is extremely negative and second is

Sergei (00:07:05):

capabilities and capacities and then we see that the discussions between Russia and

Sergei (00:07:15):

the United States so there's no any positive step because the meeting that was

Sergei (00:07:22):

planned in Hungary from one side it's postponed from one side from the other side

Sergei (00:07:28):

it's cancelled so and it's

Sergei (00:07:34):

a weaker position that it had, for example, after Alaska summit.

Sergei (00:07:40):

And Russians,

Sergei (00:07:41):

they admitted it,

Sergei (00:07:42):

especially Lavrov,

Sergei (00:07:44):

deputy head of Russian MFA,

Sergei (00:07:46):

he stated that what is possible to move forward after Alaska summit is almost like

Sergei (00:07:56):

done.

Sergei (00:07:57):

There is a high demand, there is a need to have some new meeting.

Hovik (00:08:04):

Speaking of the Russian-U.S.

Hovik (00:08:06):

negotiations, do you think that

Hovik (00:08:09):

Russia, you know, strategically is, you said it's in a weaker spot.

Hovik (00:08:17):

Did I hear you correctly?

Hovik (00:08:18):

And what were Putin's calculations for rejecting Trump's offer for a ceasefire?

Hovik (00:08:24):

He has justified his stance by saying that unless there is a comprehensive peace

Hovik (00:08:28):

deal,

Hovik (00:08:29):

a temporary ceasefire is meaningless and will only prolong the conflict.

Hovik (00:08:34):

And more important for us,

Hovik (00:08:35):

he specifically mentioned the case of Armenia not achieving a peace deal in 1994

Hovik (00:08:42):

with Azerbaijan and settling for a tenuous ceasefire for 25 years.

Hovik (00:08:48):

And now we see what happened.

Hovik (00:08:50):

So what lessons did Putin learn from the Artsakh conflict and do you think that

Hovik (00:08:55):

those lessons are being applied correctly right now?

Sergei (00:08:59):

Coming to the beginning of your question,

Sergei (00:09:01):

as I see Putin firstly,

Sergei (00:09:02):

he wanted to portray himself as a very constructive partner to focus like in a

Sergei (00:09:09):

final peace deal rather than a temporary ceasefire.

Sergei (00:09:11):

And from Russia's perspective,

Sergei (00:09:13):

the plan to somehow resonate with Trump's position to not freeze the conflict,

Sergei (00:09:19):

but to finally come to the end.

Sergei (00:09:22):

And that was the agenda during Alaska summit.

Sergei (00:09:30):

was quite positive on this suggestion.

Sergei (00:09:36):

When Putin stated about Artsakh conflict,

Sergei (00:09:41):

definitely Russians realized that any,

Sergei (00:09:45):

they call it semi-measures,

Sergei (00:09:48):

they are useless in a long-term run.

Sergei (00:09:51):

So it's important to make a decision right now and to implement it right now.

Sergei (00:09:56):

Otherwise you will face the same problem that you have today.

Sergei (00:10:00):

And it's not only about Artsakh conflict from that perspective,

Sergei (00:10:03):

it's also lessons learned from the first Ukrainian war,

Sergei (00:10:08):

2014,

Sergei (00:10:09):

when the situation was not solved.

Sergei (00:10:13):

It was just... They tried to have a...

Sergei (00:10:19):

some kind of damage control, and finally they failed to keep the situation out of control.

Sergei (00:10:26):

They faced the large-scale war.

Sergei (00:10:28):

So in order to not have the same situation,

Sergei (00:10:31):

now they are more interested to have a final peace deal.

Sergei (00:10:35):

And it's not only about Ukraine,

Sergei (00:10:42):

Minister of Defense of Germany stated that there is a high probability of the war

Sergei (00:10:49):

against Russia before 2029.

Sergei (00:10:52):

And when we monitor what's Russia's opinion leaders or circles that are connected

Sergei (00:10:58):

somehow to decision-making centers,

Sergei (00:11:07):

for a conflict against Russia.

Sergei (00:11:09):

This way,

Sergei (00:11:10):

in order to be prepared in such negative scenarios,

Sergei (00:11:14):

Russians still need to recover themselves somehow.

Sergei (00:11:18):

And to recover themselves somehow, they need a break after Ukraine war.

Sergei (00:11:23):

This way,

Sergei (00:11:24):

as for me,

Sergei (00:11:25):

from Russia's interest,

Sergei (00:11:27):

might be more relevant to stop the war rather than to continue it and face the new

Sergei (00:11:33):

escalation on other theaters.

Hovik (00:11:36):

So you think that the conflict with EU is essentially a train that has left the

Hovik (00:11:45):

station, that is going to be,

Hovik (00:11:48):

I mean, have European decision makers made a decision to head towards a military conflict

Hovik (00:11:56):

with Russia?

Sergei (00:11:56):

I don't think that Europeans are ready for any conflict against Russia if they do not have

Sergei (00:12:05):

in case of Israel.

Sergei (00:12:07):

Definitely Israel,

Sergei (00:12:10):

it's complicated to imagine that Israel later decides to attack Iran,

Sergei (00:12:13):

Hezbollah,

Sergei (00:12:14):

Houthis, et cetera, without not even green light,

Sergei (00:12:16):

but full support from the United States.

Sergei (00:12:19):

First of all,

Sergei (00:12:20):

in terms of military technical supplies,

Sergei (00:12:22):

then political diplomatic supports within UN Security Council and other platforms.

Sergei (00:12:31):

So if they do not have such support from the United States,

Sergei (00:12:37):

do any steps from this direction.

Sergei (00:12:40):

Most probably, that was a kind of reaction when Russia tried to test NATO's,

Sergei (00:12:45):

not red lines,

Sergei (00:12:46):

but NATO's redness,

Sergei (00:12:47):

that's called this way,

Sergei (00:12:48):

when they used drones over Poland or some other countries.

Sergei (00:13:07):

So this is why they take this series.

Hovik (00:13:10):

Okay, so going back to Putin's comments,

Hovik (00:13:13):

you know,

Hovik (00:13:14):

that he made about Artsakh or Nagorno-Karabakh and previous comments that he has

Hovik (00:13:20):

made saying that Armenia never recognized Artsakh.

Hovik (00:13:23):

So why is everyone looking to Russia to do anything about it?

Hovik (00:13:29):

Are we to understand that Russia would have preferred if Armenia,

Hovik (00:13:34):

I mean,

Hovik (00:13:35):

it's difficult to judge history,

Hovik (00:13:37):

you know, with,

Hovik (00:13:38):

you know, looking backwards.

Hovik (00:13:41):

Do you think that his statements about Armenia recognizing Artsakh are sincere and

Hovik (00:13:48):

Russia believes that Armenia should have done that at some point in the past?

Sergei (00:13:54):

I think these statements,

Sergei (00:13:55):

it comes from Russia's weak position because definitely Russia was interested to

Sergei (00:14:00):

freeze somehow the issue of status of Republic of Artsakh.

Sergei (00:14:06):

And there were even official statements that Russia is interested

Sergei (00:14:14):

their calculation was until there is a gray zone, the situation is not resolved 100%.

Sergei (00:14:20):

So Russia has more leverage to keep closer to itself both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sergei (00:14:26):

And they realized,

Sergei (00:14:29):

and even some experts that are close to Security Council,

Sergei (00:14:34):

they stated that,

Sergei (00:14:36):

yes,

Sergei (00:14:37):

the Republic of Artsakh

Sergei (00:14:52):

crisis from other nations.

Sergei (00:14:55):

And when Putin stated that Armenia did not recognize the Republic of Artsakh,

Sergei (00:15:01):

de facto that's the truth,

Sergei (00:15:02):

but in general,

Sergei (00:15:03):

as I told,

Sergei (00:15:04):

it comes from a weak position.

Sergei (00:15:06):

But Russia was not able to protect,

Sergei (00:15:09):

defend and push forward its own agenda and orient the situation on the ground and

Sergei (00:15:17):

recalculate its strategy.

Sergei (00:15:23):

pretend to be a superpower or great power.

Sergei (00:15:27):

I cannot imagine when,

Sergei (00:15:28):

for example,

Sergei (00:15:29):

Russia states, OK,

Sergei (00:15:30):

that was a Ukrainian people decision to elect Zelensky.

Sergei (00:15:33):

That was Ukrainian people decision to bring US or UK military bases on Black Sea and Azov Sea.

Sergei (00:15:40):

So we should take into account because this is their sovereign decision.

Sergei (00:15:44):

If this decision, they contradict 100 percent their national interest, they took actions.

Sergei (00:15:50):

So here they were not able to take any actions.

Sergei (00:15:53):

And when we,

Sergei (00:15:55):

for example, when you read Aliyev's statement during meetings with citizens in Karvachar or

Sergei (00:16:03):

Kelbajar region,

Sergei (00:16:04):

so Aliyev openly stated that all steps that Azerbaijan undertook since 2020 related

Sergei (00:16:11):

to escalations on different heights when they attacked.

Sergei (00:16:21):

established checkpoint there, et cetera.

Sergei (00:16:24):

That was a part of a grand Azerbaijani strategy to take the control over Karabakh.

Sergei (00:16:31):

So that was an official statement from Mr. Ali.

Sergei (00:16:34):

So from this perspective, you see that Baku is

Sergei (00:16:43):

in your toolkit, in your actions.

Sergei (00:16:46):

This is why you prefer to take the new,

Sergei (00:16:49):

agree on new status quo that is shaped by a stronger site.

Sergei (00:17:01):

By the way, with the cases of Syria,

Sergei (00:17:05):

when there are discussions that,

Sergei (00:17:06):

okay, Syrian army,

Sergei (00:17:07):

they did not fight good,

Sergei (00:17:09):

et cetera, definitely there were problems,

Sergei (00:17:10):

both within officers,

Sergei (00:17:12):

soldiers,

Sergei (00:17:13):

commander's control system,

Sergei (00:17:14):

et cetera.

Sergei (00:17:15):

But when you blame your ally that your ally did many mistakes,

Hovik (00:17:22):

Yeah, yeah.

Hovik (00:17:25):

It makes sense to me.

Hovik (00:17:26):

Let's come to Iran for a short while.

Hovik (00:17:30):

You spend a lot of time with Iranian colleagues,

Hovik (00:17:34):

and we always see you participating in talks there.

Hovik (00:17:39):

So a few weeks ago, we talked with Professor Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute.

Hovik (00:17:44):

He's known for his strong position that a second phase of the June War on Iran by

Hovik (00:17:53):

Israel and possibly involving the US is inevitable.

Hovik (00:17:57):

Now, he had predicted that it might happen before December, although there are a few weeks left.

Hovik (00:18:04):

It seems that is not materializing.

Hovik (00:18:07):

But he continues to argue that both the regional tempo and political incentives

Hovik (00:18:13):

in Washington and Tel Aviv point towards renewed strikes and a more wide-scale war

Hovik (00:18:18):

between Israel and Iran.

Hovik (00:18:20):

What are your thoughts on that?

Hovik (00:18:21):

And also,

Hovik (00:18:22):

if a wider Iran-Israel war becomes unavoidable,

Hovik (00:18:27):

what is the scenario that Armenia should actually prepare for as a country on the

Hovik (00:18:32):

immediate periphery of this war?

Sergei (00:18:33):

I agree that it's not a matter of

Sergei (00:18:42):

the risk of escalation is medium, but it continues to increase.

Sergei (00:18:47):

And there are several factors that will affect the escalation.

Sergei (00:18:51):

And we all understand that there is only one people who make a decision on the

Sergei (00:18:57):

escalation,

Sergei (00:18:58):

Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu.

Sergei (00:19:00):

And there are different

Sergei (00:19:05):

First is the internal situation in Israel,

Sergei (00:19:08):

as far as the coalition is still facing some problems.

Sergei (00:19:13):

And elections in Israel, they are planned on autumn 2026.

Sergei (00:19:18):

There are discussions to have a snap elections and according to different polls,

Sergei (00:19:22):

the ruling government,

Sergei (00:19:26):

they will lose and they will not be able to have a

Sergei (00:19:43):

to state during his speech in Knesset that please cancel all these investigations

Sergei (00:19:50):

against Mr.

Sergei (00:19:51):

Netanyahu,

Sergei (00:19:52):

etc. So this is about internal dynamics in Israel.

Sergei (00:19:56):

Second is about Iranian decision.

Sergei (00:20:09):

for 60% uranium that was hidden when the United States bombed these facilities.

Sergei (00:20:16):

And if they find the indicator that Iran is doing some steps on relaunching its

Sergei (00:20:23):

nuclear problem,

Sergei (00:20:24):

that will be maybe the biggest trigger.

Sergei (00:20:27):

And for Minister Netanyahu, I think the third

Sergei (00:20:39):

upcoming U.S.

Sergei (00:20:40):

elections, November 2026.

Sergei (00:20:43):

As far as he needs both green light and full support military and diplomatically

Sergei (00:20:48):

from the United States,

Sergei (00:20:50):

he needs Mr.

Sergei (00:20:51):

Trump to be a very strong position,

Sergei (00:20:57):

both in the White House and Congress.

Sergei (00:20:59):

So this is why the risk of escalation will increase since today until the U.S.

Sergei (00:21:06):

elections that we see based on

Sergei (00:21:19):

to assess the level and the scale of the escalation.

Sergei (00:21:25):

Both side definitely,

Sergei (00:21:27):

we see that there was a lessons learned process,

Sergei (00:21:31):

both from Iran and from Israel.

Sergei (00:21:34):

And we do not know the capabilities that Israel has inside Iran or around Iran to

Sergei (00:21:41):

use them during its attacks.

Sergei (00:21:44):

But today we see that Iran is recovering

Sergei (00:21:48):

First, because of some military supplies.

Sergei (00:21:51):

Second,

Sergei (00:21:52):

there were some statements related to new missiles that Iran did not use against

Sergei (00:22:01):

Israel during 12 days' war.

Sergei (00:22:04):

There were statements that Iran is repaired launchers,

Sergei (00:22:10):

because the key problem for Israel and for Iran was the amount of launchers,

Sergei (00:22:15):

because as far as

Sergei (00:22:24):

and to reach some targets.

Sergei (00:22:26):

But if you have not 100 launchers,

Sergei (00:22:28):

but you have 10 launchers,

Sergei (00:22:30):

it's impossible to have some military success.

Sergei (00:22:33):

But yes,

Sergei (00:22:35):

Iran is recovering,

Sergei (00:22:36):

and there are discussions in Iran that actually local air defense system,

Sergei (00:22:42):

it was much more effective comparing with,

Sergei (00:22:44):

for example,

Sergei (00:22:46):

some other systems,

Sergei (00:22:48):

especially the Russian one.

Sergei (00:22:50):

But let's see, because it's complicated.

Asbed (00:23:04):

Different groups coming from inside Iran or from Azerbaijan?

Sergei (00:23:08):

That were mostly migrants from Afghanistan that were recruited by Israeli military

Sergei (00:23:15):

intelligence to operate them on the ground inside Iran.

Sergei (00:23:33):

There might be some new obstacles,

Sergei (00:23:35):

for example, if Iran decides or it has capabilities to deploy its air defense system in Iraq or

Sergei (00:23:44):

in some other parts of the Middle East to make some new obstacles.

Sergei (00:23:48):

Or, for example,

Sergei (00:23:49):

if Russia is coming back to Syria,

Sergei (00:23:51):

because just recently get news that delegation from the Russian military of defense

Sergei (00:23:59):

was in Syria.

Sergei (00:24:00):

And they visited some southern areas on the Syria-Israel border,

Sergei (00:24:04):

where previously Russian military police was operating and keeping the border under

Sergei (00:24:10):

control during Assad regime.

Sergei (00:24:14):

And now,

Sergei (00:24:15):

as I understand,

Sergei (00:24:18):

Syria is still interested to have Russia as a southern shield against Israel.

Sergei (00:24:27):

its system in Syria or Iran deploys its system close to Syria or in Iraq, etc.

Sergei (00:24:34):

That will be a bit complicated for Israel to reach Iranian airspace as it did,

Sergei (00:24:40):

for example, in June 2025.

Asbed (00:24:42):

Do you believe that this current Syrian government led by al-Jolani actually has,

Asbed (00:24:48):

what is he calling himself now,

Asbed (00:24:50):

al-Sharaa,

Asbed (00:24:51):

has actually the chops to make relations with Russia?

Asbed (00:24:56):

Yes.

Asbed (00:24:57):

He was in the White House just recently.

Sergei (00:24:59):

Yes.

Sergei (00:25:01):

Jolani started first contact since the beginning of 2025,

Sergei (00:25:04):

and the key marker was the visit of Mr.

Sergei (00:25:08):

Bogdanov.

Sergei (00:25:24):

And then there were some other meetings with MFA, Minister of Economy, etc.

Sergei (00:25:30):

And just recently was a visit of Julani and he met with Putin.

Sergei (00:25:35):

Definitely they were discussing Russia's military base that are still in Syria.

Sergei (00:25:39):

They were discussing some economic projects related to Russia's investment in the

Sergei (00:25:47):

Syrian oil production industry and Russia's supplies

Sergei (00:25:57):

economic problems and engaging Russia,

Sergei (00:26:01):

Turkey,

Sergei (00:26:02):

and Julani may have some internal problems that are the base of his stable power.

Sergei (00:26:10):

Otherwise, if nothing changes for

Sergei (00:26:22):

resources to use for your internal electricity generation.

Sergei (00:26:28):

Then you have not one or two hours of electricity,

Sergei (00:26:30):

but you have half a day of electricity,

Sergei (00:26:32):

definitely that will affect on his internal positions.

Sergei (00:26:38):

And related to domestic situation,

Sergei (00:26:41):

they are interested still to have Russia as a tool that might be used somehow to

Sergei (00:26:46):

keep Israel from any

Sergei (00:26:54):

tried to do since 2016,

Sergei (00:26:58):

15,

Sergei (00:27:14):

16,

Sergei (00:26:58):

when they had it,

Sergei (00:27:00):

they called it the conflicting mechanism,

Sergei (00:27:03):

when Israel had to inform Khmeimim,

Sergei (00:27:07):

Russian military base in Syria,

Sergei (00:27:09):

about their military operations over Syrian airspace in advance.

Sergei (00:27:14):

And so there was a kind of communication.

Sergei (00:27:18):

So maybe they expected to have Russians to keep Israeli somehow.

Asbed (00:27:23):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:27:24):

Coming back to the Iran conflict,

Asbed (00:27:26):

do you think that the TRIPP agreement,

Asbed (00:27:29):

the Trump-Rout agreement in the White House back in August actually injected the

Asbed (00:27:33):

United States inside Armenia,

Asbed (00:27:35):

right on the border of Iran?

Asbed (00:27:37):

And how does Iran view,

Asbed (00:27:41):

actually specifically,

Asbed (00:27:42):

how does Iran's security apparatus view these developments?

Sergei (00:27:47):

From the very beginning,

Sergei (00:27:48):

the key concern of security apparatus was following from their perspective,

Sergei (00:27:54):

United States may deploy some PMC,

Sergei (00:27:57):

private military company,

Sergei (00:27:58):

in order to provide a security control over TRIPP,

Sergei (00:28:05):

but then the statement was dissolved from our media side that there are zero

Sergei (00:28:08):

discussions about any private military companies.

Sergei (00:28:12):

But still, these concerns exist in the conservative wing.

Sergei (00:28:16):

The second concern is related to

Sergei (00:28:25):

Again, from security perspective,

Sergei (00:28:27):

because there is an interesting point,

Sergei (00:28:30):

because there is a different perspective from Russia and from Iran regarding the

Sergei (00:28:33):

TRIPP.

Sergei (00:28:34):

So the Iranian perspective is that Tehran does not detach Israeli presence in the

Sergei (00:28:40):

south of Artsakh,

Sergei (00:28:41):

some of the Azerbaijani control,

Sergei (00:28:44):

from possible any U.S.

Sergei (00:28:46):

presence within TRIPP.

Sergei (00:28:50):

So from their perspective, this is one circle.

Sergei (00:29:03):

the Armenian-Iran border.

Sergei (00:29:08):

And there are two problems.

Sergei (00:29:09):

First, the possible U.S.

Sergei (00:29:11):

or U.S.-affilated companies to monitor the flows coming from Iran into Iran.

Sergei (00:29:18):

And the second is the functionality of Armenian-Iran border.

Sergei (00:29:27):

keep the same level of flows.

Sergei (00:29:32):

This is why there are different projects, soon will be finalized,

Sergei (00:29:48):

of flows from Iran and to Iran,

Sergei (00:29:50):

and there is a guarantee for them that the north-south connectivity will not be

Sergei (00:29:56):

canceled, interrupted somehow within TRIPP or this east-west connectivity.

Sergei (00:30:02):

And so the key point was from Iran, we still have some concerns related to TRIPP.

Sergei (00:30:11):

It means, as for me, from expert level, that

Sergei (00:30:18):

Three months, four months,

Sergei (00:30:19):

Armenian side tried to mitigate these concerns from Iran,

Sergei (00:30:24):

but still we did not succeed 100%.

Asbed (00:30:27):

Yeah, what would it take to actually mitigate those concerns, Sergei?

Sergei (00:30:32):

So the key points from Armenian side is that this is not against Iran somehow.

Sergei (00:30:36):

We will not allow someone to use our territory against Iranian interest in any way.

Sergei (00:30:43):

So this is only about making connectivity working because Armenia wants to open the

Sergei (00:30:49):

border with Turkey and the border with Turkey will not be open until the TRIPP is

Sergei (00:30:53):

not operating.

Sergei (00:30:54):

So all this regional blocking communications process is interconnected.

Sergei (00:31:00):

So, and this is the key point that the North South

Sergei (00:31:14):

Iranian border, so please do not have any concerns.

Sergei (00:31:18):

As I heard from Iranian colleagues, that was a key message.

Asbed (00:31:25):

Okay,

Asbed (00:31:26):

so let's go from the northwest border of Iran as far as encircling goes to the

Asbed (00:31:33):

northeast border of Iran.

Asbed (00:31:34):

On November 6,

Asbed (00:31:36):

Trump gathered the leaders of the C5 Central Asian countries in the White House in

Asbed (00:31:40):

an effort to establish a presence in the region and compete for influence with

Asbed (00:31:45):

Russia and China.

Asbed (00:31:47):

After the August 8th meeting that brought the U.S.

Asbed (00:31:49):

into the South Caucasus,

Asbed (00:31:51):

now I think they are trying to make,

Asbed (00:31:53):

it's logical to think that they are trying to make inroads into Central Asia.

Asbed (00:31:59):

Over $130 billion of commitments were signed, mineral rights and things like that.

Asbed (00:32:06):

But if we look at the statements and we go a little beyond the boilerplate that we

Asbed (00:32:11):

hear from Moscow about every country is sovereign and they can make their own

Asbed (00:32:16):

decisions, et cetera, et cetera.

Asbed (00:32:17):

What's the view of the C5 plus one agreements from Moscow?

Sergei (00:32:23):

C plus five format is not only about Central Asia and United States.

Sergei (00:32:28):

There are many C plus five, European Union, India, China, Russia, and other actors.

Sergei (00:32:33):

So definitely from Russia's perspective,

Sergei (00:32:36):

that was an attempt to bring United States closer to Central Asia

Sergei (00:32:50):

let's call them countermeasures or counter-steps.

Sergei (00:32:53):

They mitigated this concern.

Sergei (00:32:55):

And for example,

Sergei (00:32:56):

right after this visit,

Sergei (00:32:58):

some leaders,

Sergei (00:32:59):

they visited Russia,

Sergei (00:33:01):

especially head of Kazakhstan,

Sergei (00:33:04):

President Tokayev.

Sergei (00:33:05):

He not just visited Russia and met with Vladimir Putin.

Sergei (00:33:10):

They increased, they qualitatively increased the level of the bilateral relations.

Sergei (00:33:16):

They signed that

Sergei (00:33:22):

and alliance right after the visit to the United States.

Sergei (00:33:28):

So that was a message that we are not pivoting somehow.

Sergei (00:33:31):

We are continuing our multi-vectoral foreign policy and definitely we are

Sergei (00:33:37):

interested to work with all both regional and non-regional actors

Asbed (00:33:46):

against Russia's interest in the region but Sergei, we also noticed that there was a

Asbed (00:33:50):

lack of a defense component to the uh there so there was not a defense alliance it

Asbed (00:33:56):

was mostly a trade and economic kind of a partnership that they signed with Russia

Sergei (00:34:01):

yeah because i so the level of their defense relationship

Sergei (00:34:22):

There are concerns that there is a new era of competition in Central Asia,

Sergei (00:34:29):

when we see that all regional and non-regional actors,

Sergei (00:34:33):

they're trying to be more active.

Sergei (00:34:35):

And definitely,

Sergei (00:34:36):

from one perspective,

Sergei (00:34:37):

China might be an ally in,

Sergei (00:34:41):

let's call it regionalization of Central Asia,

Sergei (00:34:44):

to keeping non-regional actors,

Sergei (00:34:48):

especially Western,

Sergei (00:34:50):

out of regional equation.

Sergei (00:34:52):

But still, Russia is not ready to compete with China with a central Asia.

Sergei (00:34:59):

But there are some niches where Russia has its own advantages.

Sergei (00:35:05):

For example,

Sergei (00:35:06):

when it comes to nuclear energy,

Sergei (00:35:08):

so Kazakhstan will construct a new power plant,

Sergei (00:35:11):

and they will do this with the Rosatom,

Sergei (00:35:14):

with the Russian company,

Sergei (00:35:15):

while some infrastructure projects that are on the agenda in Kazakhstan,

Sergei (00:35:19):

they do with China.

Sergei (00:35:21):

So Kazakhstan are also trying to balance between Russia and China.

Sergei (00:35:25):

And now to have this balancing act,

Sergei (00:35:28):

they're also expanding their relations with the United States.

Asbed (00:35:34):

Okay.

Asbed (00:35:36):

Is Russia concerned about Turkey as a spearhead of NATO,

Asbed (00:35:40):

making deep inroads into Central Asia with this organization of Turkic states?

Asbed (00:35:46):

So there was a meeting, I think, a month ago or so.

Asbed (00:35:49):

It was a very vibrant meeting in Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:35:53):

Are there concerns in Russia about this organization?

Sergei (00:35:56):

No, that's very...

Sergei (00:36:00):

because just today we had some conversation with Russian officials here in Yerevan.

Sergei (00:36:07):

And for the first time,

Sergei (00:36:08):

it openly rises concern that that might be a problem for Russia in a mid-term

Sergei (00:36:14):

realm.

Sergei (00:36:15):

Because before that, if you remember, Mr. Lavrov stated that all this on Turkey, on Turanic,

Sergei (00:36:25):

We do not take them serious.

Sergei (00:36:27):

This is a kind of, you know, far-fetched ambitions.

Sergei (00:36:33):

It's mostly about culture rather than geopolitics, et cetera, et cetera.

Sergei (00:36:37):

But the decision to conduct a joint multilateral military drills with an

Sergei (00:36:43):

organization of Turkic states,

Sergei (00:36:47):

that was maybe the biggest signal

Sergei (00:36:58):

shifting to hard integration because when you talk about the same alphabet this is

Sergei (00:37:06):

another problem because this issue is not advanced somehow to have a unified

Sergei (00:37:12):

alphabet within Turkish states but when you unify the school textbooks etc this is

Sergei (00:37:20):

the one story but when it comes to joint multilateral military drills when Turkey

Sergei (00:37:27):

is

Sergei (00:37:32):

exporter to some of these regional states, that's a source of concern.

Sergei (00:37:39):

But for Russia,

Sergei (00:37:40):

the problem is that they're still limited within their toolkit how to mitigate the

Sergei (00:37:46):

risk and everything is related to the end of the war in Japan.

Sergei (00:37:56):

maybe they will reassess somehow,

Sergei (00:37:59):

because as for today,

Sergei (00:38:00):

I don't see that Moscow,

Sergei (00:38:02):

there is a clear foreign policy strategy related to both South Kokozov and Central

Sergei (00:38:08):

Asia.

Asbed (00:38:09):

We have actually talked about this,

Asbed (00:38:11):

and we have been,

Asbed (00:38:12):

you and us have been very surprised that Russia does not see this as a threat when

Asbed (00:38:18):

we, Armenia,

Asbed (00:38:19):

see this as a rising issue.

Asbed (00:38:21):

Not just for Armenia, but for Russia as well.

Sergei (00:38:36):

different circles related to both diplomat and security corps,

Sergei (00:38:42):

there are concerns about rising Turkey in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.

Asbed (00:38:48):

Okay,

Asbed (00:38:49):

well, for the sake of time,

Asbed (00:38:50):

Sergei,

Asbed (00:38:51):

I'm gonna move to domestic issues because we want to talk about this local election

Asbed (00:38:57):

in Vagharshapat that happened yesterday on November 16.

Asbed (00:39:02):

We saw a moderate turnout of about 45% with roughly 31 and a half thousand of the

Asbed (00:39:07):

city's almost 70,000 registered voters casting ballots.

Asbed (00:39:11):

The civil contract party won 48 and a half percent of the vote,

Asbed (00:39:15):

securing 19 of the 33 council seats.

Asbed (00:39:18):

And that gave them a clear majority to form a government without needing any kind

Asbed (00:39:22):

of a coalition.

Asbed (00:39:24):

Victory Alliance,

Asbed (00:39:25):

this is Haghtanak Dashinq,

Asbed (00:39:28):

came in second with 12 seats,

Asbed (00:39:30):

while smaller parties like Mother Armenia,

Asbed (00:39:33):

Republic, Homeland,

Asbed (00:39:34):

Free Democrats,

Asbed (00:39:35):

Heritage,

Asbed (00:39:36):

and Pan-Armenian Front,

Asbed (00:39:38):

they only won a handful of seats.

Asbed (00:39:41):

We will try to put all the data in our show notes,

Asbed (00:39:43):

so please click on that and check those things out.

Asbed (00:39:47):

Hovig, were there irregularities reported during these elections?

Hovik (00:39:54):

I didn't follow this election very closely,

Hovik (00:39:58):

but my reading of the news indicates that there were irregularities,

Hovik (00:40:04):

including open voting in precincts.

Hovik (00:40:10):

There were several complaints about campaign finance,

Hovik (00:40:14):

administrative resource abuse,

Hovik (00:40:19):

and just even registering observers.

Hovik (00:40:22):

You know,

Hovik (00:40:23):

we also saw news reports that right during the election,

Hovik (00:40:28):

there were power blackouts,

Hovik (00:40:30):

which is very reminiscent of the 2021 elections.

Hovik (00:40:36):

Nevertheless, I didn't stop the Central Election Commission from certifying the results.

Hovik (00:40:41):

So, you know, civil contract has about 49%, I believe.

Hovik (00:40:46):

With its minor partner,

Hovik (00:40:49):

the Republic Party,

Hovik (00:40:51):

which has,

Hovik (00:40:52):

I think,

Hovik (00:40:53):

3%,

Hovik (00:40:54):

if I'm not mistaken,

Hovik (00:40:56):

they should be able to have a solid majority.

Hovik (00:40:59):

So, yeah, the Republic Party has 3.9%, so 4%.

Hovik (00:41:03):

But I think that before we go on any further,

Hovik (00:41:06):

you know, a lot of attention nowadays is being cast on election day activities.

Hovik (00:41:13):

Whereas in modern times in Armenia,

Hovik (00:41:18):

elections are mostly registering predetermined outcomes,

Hovik (00:41:23):

which are the result of,

Hovik (00:41:24):

you know,

Hovik (00:41:25):

I told you in our chat,

Hovik (00:41:26):

like administrative resources strike again.

Hovik (00:41:29):

And it is this that is

Hovik (00:41:32):

you know,

Hovik (00:41:33):

I think the key determinant and,

Hovik (00:41:37):

you know, just there were reports that,

Hovik (00:41:39):

you know,

Hovik (00:41:40):

civil contracts spent an enormous amount of money at certain targeted communities,

Hovik (00:41:46):

communities that were recently incorporated into the larger

Hovik (00:41:49):

municipal bloc uh because civil contract since 2000 since it has come to power has

Hovik (00:41:55):

been merging different electoral districts almost like gerrymandering and then uh

Hovik (00:42:03):

it appears that you know in the city of Vagharshapat itself most of the people you

Hovik (00:42:08):

know voted for the opposition but

Asbed (00:42:10):

Hovik,

Asbed (00:42:11):

just about the administrative resources,

Asbed (00:42:13):

I just want to mention because there's nothing of a major issue with a party

Asbed (00:42:18):

spending money to get elected.

Asbed (00:42:20):

But in this case, I think you are referring to municipal funds that were being spent just at the

Asbed (00:42:26):

right time making infrastructural upgrades so that people think that the government

Asbed (00:42:31):

is doing really well by them,

Asbed (00:42:33):

right? Right.

Hovik (00:42:34):

Yeah, I mean,

Hovik (00:42:35):

administrative resources means resources of the state being directed,

Hovik (00:42:38):

not party funds.

Hovik (00:42:40):

Administrative resources means resources of the government, whether it is financial resources.

Hovik (00:42:45):

So,

Hovik (00:42:46):

you know, a month before,

Hovik (00:42:47):

you know,

Hovik (00:42:48):

you target all of these sort of construction and all the like glitzy reconstruction

Hovik (00:42:53):

work in communities that you want to win with.

Hovik (00:42:58):

Yeah, to the detriment of the general population with a clear design to capture the election.

Hovik (00:43:06):

We also have to realize that in Armenia,

Hovik (00:43:10):

about 20% probably of the population is employed by the government.

Hovik (00:43:16):

And we have seen evidence of a lot of teachers,

Hovik (00:43:18):

a lot of government employees being essentially told,

Hovik (00:43:25):

you know, who to vote for.

Hovik (00:43:26):

You know, when there are like gatherings,

Hovik (00:43:28):

public gatherings,

Hovik (00:43:29):

you know,

Hovik (00:43:30):

you go and it's all like just,

Hovik (00:43:32):

you know, teachers from schools and teacher groups appearing there.

Hovik (00:43:36):

So it stinks to high heaven of being influenced by the government.

Hovik (00:43:47):

Yeah, until this issue is resolved in Armenia,

Hovik (00:43:48):

I think that my honest opinion is that elections are going to suffer from this

Hovik (00:43:56):

issue of administrative resources.

Hovik (00:43:57):

And the fact is that the international community is not paying attention.

Hovik (00:44:02):

They're happy to swipe this under the rug.

Asbed (00:44:09):

They can just come and monitor on the day of elections.

Asbed (00:44:12):

And the election is won far before the election day.

Hovik (00:44:18):

Exactly.

Hovik (00:44:19):

That's what I was trying to say.

Hovik (00:44:21):

And speaking of monitoring...

Hovik (00:44:23):

There were no external international monitors,

Hovik (00:44:26):

I believe, in this election,

Hovik (00:44:27):

because it's a municipal election.

Hovik (00:44:29):

But one of the main monitoring organizations with a lot of resources is the Union

Hovik (00:44:35):

of Informed Citizens,

Hovik (00:44:37):

led by a certain Daniel Ioannisyan,

Hovik (00:44:40):

who is also revising Armenia's constitution,

Hovik (00:44:44):

um you know he's part of the uh anti-corruption commission uh so he has fingers in

Hovik (00:44:51):

a lot of places and this doesn't seem to uh cause any alarm among western observers

Hovik (00:44:57):

that a

Hovik (00:44:59):

NGO has so much power and so much funding that they're able to, you know, control so much.

Hovik (00:45:07):

And in fact, this organization is very, very much pro-European.

Asbed (00:45:10):

External funding.

Asbed (00:45:12):

It's not Armenian funds.

Hovik (00:45:13):

Yeah, Archbishop Mikayel Ajapahyan was arrested based on a report from Daniel Ioannisyan.

Hovik (00:45:20):

Daniel Ioannisyan defended...

Hovik (00:45:23):

uh the recent attack of uh and arrest of journalists uh from the Imnemnimi podcast uh

Hovik (00:45:32):

or you know you can call them media or journalists uh so yeah and they have immense

Hovik (00:45:38):

amount of funding from the west so this in my opinion this by in in no way is a

Hovik (00:45:45):

free and fair election,

Hovik (00:45:46):

and it allows us to sort of see the warnings from some in Armenia that no

Hovik (00:45:51):

government has changed power through the result of elections in Armenia.

Hovik (00:45:57):

But I want to pose a question to Sergey if he has any opinion on this.

Hovik (00:46:02):

Vagharshapat has 70,000 voters,

Hovik (00:46:05):

and I think it was viewed as a very symbolic election because Vagharshapat is also

Hovik (00:46:11):

the

Hovik (00:46:12):

seat of Holy Etchmiadzin, where the, you know, the head of the church is located.

Hovik (00:46:17):

And we know that currently Nikol Pashinyan is trying to unseat the Catholicos.

Hovik (00:46:24):

But do you think just from a purely electoral perspective,

Hovik (00:46:29):

I'm not sure how much you follow internal Armenian elections,

Hovik (00:46:32):

but do you think that this election sets a precedent or can it predict anything

Hovik (00:46:37):

about future elections,

Hovik (00:46:39):

including the

Hovik (00:46:40):

June 2026 parliamentary election i'm not an expert in each one of the polls

Sergei (00:47:13):

they did not participate in the election.

Sergei (00:47:15):

Now they are,

Sergei (00:47:16):

as far as I understand,

Sergei (00:47:17):

according to different polls,

Sergei (00:47:19):

they are number one political party in opposition and key opponent for the ruling

Sergei (00:47:24):

party.

Sergei (00:47:25):

So if you took this piece out of the entire puzzle, you will not have the entire picture.

Sergei (00:47:33):

So this is why the parliamentary elections will have

Sergei (00:47:37):

a different scale,

Sergei (00:47:40):

not only in terms of geography,

Sergei (00:47:43):

but also in terms of,

Sergei (00:47:46):

let's call them high waiters who will take part in these elections.

Sergei (00:47:52):

Yes, yes.

Sergei (00:47:54):

And the second is that all local elections,

Sergei (00:47:57):

it doesn't matter in Armenian,

Sergei (00:47:59):

now some other countries,

Sergei (00:48:01):

they have their own specificities.

Sergei (00:48:03):

For example, I mean, I'm originally from Gyumri and when I was following

Sergei (00:48:24):

have your personal connections, relative connections, etc.

Sergei (00:48:29):

And when it comes to the parliamentary elections, the Republican level, that's a bit different.

Sergei (00:48:37):

This is why I would not like to merge these two different types of elections.

Hovik (00:48:47):

You mentioned Mer Dzeov.

Hovik (00:48:48):

We should also mention that neither Hayastan Dashinq nor the Republican Party were

Hovik (00:48:54):

also on the ballot.

Hovik (00:48:56):

Although,

Hovik (00:48:58):

you know,

Hovik (00:48:59):

there are sort of,

Hovik (00:49:01):

it's a common view that Mayr Hayastan,

Hovik (00:49:04):

which I think got like 3% or 4%,

Hovik (00:49:06):

let me see,

Hovik (00:49:08):

Mayr Hayastan... 4% because they passed the...

Hovik (00:49:13):

So Meyer Hayastan is known to be affiliated with Robert Kocharian,

Hovik (00:49:17):

or at least that's the common knowledge,

Hovik (00:49:20):

but why didn't the larger players,

Hovik (00:49:27):

Samvel Karapetyan,

Hovik (00:49:28):

Mer Dzevov,

Hovik (00:49:29):

Hayastan

Hovik (00:49:30):

Dashinq formally under its own name,

Hovik (00:49:32):

or the Republican Party,

Hovik (00:49:34):

why didn't they participate?

Sergei (00:49:36):

To be honest, I have no idea on this matter.

Sergei (00:49:41):

Maybe in case of

Sergei (00:49:58):

like, Armenian regions.

Sergei (00:50:00):

So, as far as I understand,

Sergei (00:50:01):

they do not have,

Sergei (00:50:02):

like,

Sergei (00:50:03):

some activities on the ground,

Sergei (00:50:05):

despite the fact that they are supporting the church.

Sergei (00:50:09):

They are very close to the Etchmiadzin.

Sergei (00:50:13):

So,

Sergei (00:50:14):

that's maybe the argument why they were not active on these elections and they were

Sergei (00:50:20):

not active on other elections.

Sergei (00:50:24):

This is why, as I see, their key focus

Sergei (00:50:29):

and six.

Hovik (00:50:31):

Yeah,

Hovik (00:50:33):

and I should also mention that I think right now Mer Dzevov is currently a movement

Hovik (00:50:38):

and not a formal political party.

Hovik (00:50:40):

I believe Narek Karapetyan had announced that they will,

Hovik (00:50:45):

closer to either the end of December or early in January,

Hovik (00:50:50):

decide or announce the opening of the party.

Hovik (00:50:53):

So, yeah, in their case, I believe they may not even be registered as a party right now.

Hovik (00:50:59):

So...

Asbed (00:51:01):

Probably the same with Tatoyan and Wings of Unity.

Asbed (00:51:06):

They might be registered because I think they are a political movement at this

Asbed (00:51:10):

point or a political party,

Asbed (00:51:11):

but they may not be ready for these elections.

Asbed (00:51:14):

It just happened, what, two, three weeks ago?

Hovik (00:51:16):

I remember reading some news that they were sort of

Hovik (00:51:25):

They may have endorsed another party in the elections,

Hovik (00:51:29):

but yeah,

Hovik (00:51:30):

I don't think they were actively involved in the Vagharshapat elections.

Hovik (00:51:34):

But I may be mistaken.

Asbed (00:51:37):

All right.

Asbed (00:51:38):

All right. Well, for now, let's wrap up our topics here.

Asbed (00:51:41):

I'd like to ask each of you for some thoughts that you might want to share with our listeners.

Asbed (00:51:46):

Sergei, anything on your mind?

Sergei (00:51:48):

I think the problem for us, I mean, it's

Sergei (00:51:58):

especially the POWs.

Sergei (00:52:03):

There was a fake court, fake decision in Baku just recently related to our prisoners.

Sergei (00:52:11):

And this is out of internal agenda.

Sergei (00:52:16):

And we may face like a very bad precedence soon if we will not pay attention

Sergei (00:52:32):

of our spotlights when we are following our daily routine or some political,

Sergei (00:52:39):

both external and internal political developments.

Sergei (00:52:42):

That's related to the situation with the Armenian heritage in Artsakh,

Sergei (00:52:47):

because we see that even some foreign experts,

Sergei (00:52:50):

they raise their concerns about Armenian churches,

Sergei (00:52:54):

Armenian heritage.

Sergei (00:53:01):

not only about Armenian church,

Sergei (00:53:04):

but also about the heritage of Armenian heroes of the Second World War.

Sergei (00:53:08):

And this is part of Russian foreign policy agenda to memorize all heroes of the war.

Sergei (00:53:21):

So we try every time.

Sergei (00:53:32):

general Armenian agenda, unfortunately.

Asbed (00:53:34):

Yeah, thanks for keeping that on the forefront of our consciousness because it's very important.

Asbed (00:53:40):

Hovig and I were talking about how some of our politicians and political analysts

Asbed (00:53:45):

prefer to talk about the diaspora and Dashnaks and point fingers that way rather

Asbed (00:53:50):

than talking about our prisoners of war and other really important things.

Asbed (00:53:57):

Hovig, what's on your mind?

Hovik (00:53:59):

I want to thank Sergey again for raising that issue and it just made me think how much

Hovik (00:54:07):

change can we inflict when the government in Armenia talks about these prisoners as

Hovik (00:54:15):

a or just to talk about Armenian cultural heritage in Artsakh a security liability

Hovik (00:54:21):

for Armenia so but you know that it's a sobering question that you know we should

Hovik (00:54:29):

we should all strive to you know make that issue the number one issue because

Hovik (00:54:36):

Whether the government in Armenia is ruled,

Hovik (00:54:40):

it seems almost by hands from the outside and especially by enemies of Armenia,

Hovik (00:54:44):

we cannot let that dictate our agenda.

Hovik (00:54:47):

But I also want to raise the issue of media in Armenia being continuously subjugated to

Hovik (00:54:55):

repression by the government.

Hovik (00:54:57):

We saw that the Imnemnimi podcast, two of its hosts were again jailed.

Hovik (00:55:03):

And I believe there's reports that 1.68 a.m.

Hovik (00:55:11):

is being harassed now.

Hovik (00:55:13):

And in general,

Hovik (00:55:14):

it seems like this government has,

Hovik (00:55:16):

you know,

Hovik (00:55:17):

it seems like a carte blanche on repressions,

Hovik (00:55:20):

whether it's against the church or the media.

Hovik (00:55:22):

And, you know, it raises

Hovik (00:55:25):

the challenge for us to try harder to improve that coverage.

Hovik (00:55:30):

So I want to announce that tomorrow,

Hovik (00:55:32):

Tuesday,

Hovik (00:55:33):

we're going to be interviewing Hayk Mamijanyan from the Republican Party of

Hovik (00:55:38):

Armenia to also talk about

Hovik (00:55:40):

you know, the repression against media in Armenia, as well as the Vagharshapat results.

Hovik (00:55:47):

So, you know, stay tuned.

Hovik (00:55:51):

Stay tuned.

Hovik (00:55:52):

And more, by the way.

Asbed (00:55:55):

We hope to talk more about these things.

Hovik (00:55:58):

And if anyone wants to, you know, I just want to also make a special call.

Hovik (00:56:02):

If anyone wants to support media in Armenia,

Hovik (00:56:05):

the best thing you can do right now is tell your friends,

Hovik (00:56:09):

anyone in the media,

Hovik (00:56:10):

to cover this event.

Hovik (00:56:12):

If you know any international journalists,

Hovik (00:56:14):

whether they're independent or whether they're part of a mainstream establishment,

Hovik (00:56:18):

tell them to, you know,

Hovik (00:56:19):

send them our interview that we did with Arthur Khachikyan a few days ago.

Hovik (00:56:26):

Send them any other article about this and ask them why they're not on a plane to

Hovik (00:56:30):

Armenia to cover this because it's a serious issue.

Asbed (00:56:33):

All right.

Asbed (00:56:34):

Let's leave it there for today.

Asbed (00:56:36):

Thank you, Sergei, for joining us.

Asbed (00:56:37):

We really appreciate your time.

Hovik (00:56:40):

Merci, Sean.

Asbed (00:56:44):

That was our week in review.

Asbed (00:56:46):

We recorded it on November 17, 2025.

Asbed (00:56:48):

We've been talking with Dr.

Asbed (00:56:50):

Sergei Melkonian,

Asbed (00:56:51):

who is currently a research fellow at APRI Armenia,

Asbed (00:56:55):

Yerevan-based think tank.

Asbed (00:56:56):

He served as assistant to president of Armenia,

Asbed (00:56:59):

Armin Sarkisyan,

Asbed (00:57:00):

on foreign policy matters for the Middle East and post-Soviet space.

Asbed (00:57:04):

Sergei is also a guest lecturer at Yerevan State University and the Russian Armenian University.

Hovik (00:57:11):

Folks,

Hovik (00:57:12):

so I'm just going to give you a quick reminder to make sure that you are subscribed

Hovik (00:57:18):

to our podcast.

Hovik (00:57:20):

And while you're doing that, make sure you like, share, and comment.

Hovik (00:57:25):

Let us know how we're doing.

Hovik (00:57:28):

Any of that helps us defeat the algorithm.

Hovik (00:57:32):

And, you know, if you're feeling extra generous, why not also send us a few cups of coffee?

Hovik (00:57:38):

You can do that through podcasts.groong.org/donate.

Asbed (00:57:43):

Thank you very much, folks.

Asbed (00:57:44):

We'll talk to you next week.

Asbed (00:57:46):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in rainy Glendale.

Hovik (00:57:50):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan, just arrived in Armenia.

Hovik (00:57:55):

I don't even know what the weather is like, but I came home directly for this podcast.

Hovik (00:58:00):

So I'm glad to be back.

Hovik (00:58:03):

And yeah, looking forward to stay in Armenia for a while.

Hovik (00:58:07):

Excellent.

Asbed (00:58:08):

Excellent. Glad you made it home safe and sound.

Hovik (00:58:10):

Yeah. Thank you.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Sergei Melkonian

Guest

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