Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Hrant Mikaelian - Ukraine Talks, Armenia’s Crackdowns, and Rising Tensions | Ep 488, Nov 23, 2025

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 488

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Groong Week in Review - November 23, 2025

Topics:

  • High-Stakes Ukraine Talks
  • Armenia’s Growing Political Detentions
  • Pashinyan Honored In Kazakhstan
  • Rising Pressure On The Church
  • Impeachment vs. Elections
  • Pashinyan Seizes Power Grid

Guest: Hrant Mikaelian

Hosts:

Episode 488 | Recorded: November 24, 2025

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/488

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/YA7EDq_Ve3I

#ArmeniaPolitics #SouthCaucasus #HumanRights #FreeSpeech #RussiaUkraine #GroongPodcast


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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for November 23,

Asbed (00:00:09):

2025.

Asbed (00:00:10):

Today, we're talking with Hrant Mikaelian, who is an interdisciplinary researcher in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:16):

Before we get started, everyone, as always, please support us.

Asbed (00:00:21):

If you can,

Asbed (00:00:22):

podcasts.groong.org/donate,

Asbed (00:00:25):

become a sustaining member,

Asbed (00:00:27):

and always like and subscribe to our channels.

Asbed (00:00:30):

Thank you.

Asbed (00:00:31):

Well, hello, Hrant.

Asbed (00:00:32):

Welcome to the Groong Podcast.

Hrant (00:00:34):

Hello, guys.

Hrant (00:00:35):

Thank you for having me.

Hovik (00:00:39):

Okay.

Hovik (00:00:40):

So for some weeks,

Hovik (00:00:41):

we've discussed the state of the Ukraine conflict or war or whatever,

Hovik (00:00:46):

the SMO.

Hovik (00:00:47):

And each week, it seems there are new threats to keep Russia at the negotiations table.

Hovik (00:00:53):

And proposals always look similar.

Hovik (00:00:56):

And...

Hovik (00:00:57):

At least so far, they have led to nowhere.

Hovik (00:01:00):

Last week, it was Tomahawks versus continuing negotiations.

Hovik (00:01:04):

This week,

Hovik (00:01:05):

it's a 28-point plan offering international monitoring of ceasefire lines,

Hovik (00:01:10):

prisoner exchange mechanism,

Hovik (00:01:12):

and limits on Ukraine's future force posture.

Hovik (00:01:16):

And in return, Russia would receive a formal freeze on NATO membership for Ukraine.

Hovik (00:01:23):

for a defined period of time,

Hovik (00:01:25):

so not forever,

Hovik (00:01:26):

and also a structured path for lifting Western sanctions.

Hovik (00:01:30):

Recognition of Russia's de facto continued control of Crimea and guarantees that

Hovik (00:01:36):

any remaining disputes would be managed to negotiations rather than military force.

Hovik (00:01:42):

So on top of that, just today,

Hovik (00:01:44):

As a result of discussions between high-level delegations between the United States

Hovik (00:01:50):

and Ukraine,

Hovik (00:01:52):

that 28-point plan was reduced to 19 points,

Hovik (00:01:55):

and there's still no agreement from Ukraine fully on it.

Hovik (00:01:59):

And we should remember previous efforts by the West to freeze the conflict.

Hovik (00:02:04):

We're talking about the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements,

Hovik (00:02:09):

and only for Western leaders to finally admit that this was all a ploy to buy

Hovik (00:02:14):

Ukraine more time to get ready for war.

Hovik (00:02:17):

So,

Hovik (00:02:18):

Harant,

Hovik (00:02:19):

is this new 28-point plan or 19-point plan essentially like a Minsk-3,

Hovik (00:02:26):

in your opinion?

Hovik (00:02:27):

Well,

Hrant (00:02:28):

the 19-point plan I haven't seen yet,

Hrant (00:02:31):

so on that I cannot comment,

Hrant (00:02:33):

but I've seen 28-point plan issued by U.S.

Hrant (00:02:35):

and 24 points issued by EU.

Hrant (00:02:42):

So the EU document is completely one sided and intended to prevent the negotiations

Hrant (00:02:50):

because obviously forcing Russia to capitulate in current situation is not

Hrant (00:02:57):

adequate.

Hrant (00:02:59):

Regarding the US document, US document seems to be kind of a compromise between US and Russia.

Hrant (00:03:06):

because it has some points which include Russia's concerns and some points of

Hrant (00:03:14):

American concerns.

Hrant (00:03:17):

And obviously, by far, not completely is beneficial for Russia.

Hrant (00:03:23):

It is completely beneficial for US though, and definitely not completely beneficial for Ukraine.

Hrant (00:03:29):

Although I think that in current stage,

Hrant (00:03:34):

When the US is observing Ukraine losing on the battleground, this is a damage control.

Hrant (00:03:41):

Because if you are trying to sell your stock before it collapses,

Hrant (00:03:48):

need to do it until it has some price so uh so i think it's it's the last time when

Hrant (00:03:55):

you can you know get something in exchange because Ukraine's front lines are

Hrant (00:04:00):

collapsing very quickly last month and Russia has had highest gains since uh since

Hrant (00:04:09):

march 2022 in November this year and it is accelerating so

Hrant (00:04:16):

The Russia strategy of war of attrition has finally started bringing the results.

Hrant (00:04:23):

Ukraine has lost most of its potential.

Hrant (00:04:26):

And now it's currently bringing Russia the results on the battleground.

Hrant (00:04:31):

Russia is attacking simultaneously on six towns, which has never occurred before.

Hrant (00:04:37):

So it is, you know, as strong as ever.

Hrant (00:04:40):

And now U.S.

Hrant (00:04:41):

has to stop it somehow.

Hrant (00:04:43):

So this plan emerged.

Hrant (00:04:46):

And the next question is, who will be responsible for the failed negotiations?

Hrant (00:04:53):

Because in reality, neither Russia... It will fail.

Hovik (00:04:57):

Are you saying that there is no chance it will succeed?

Hrant (00:05:00):

I don't see it.

Hrant (00:05:01):

So in reality, either Russia or Ukraine would ultimately bring it to a failure.

Hrant (00:05:12):

And both want the counterpart to do it.

Hrant (00:05:16):

But we see that Ukraine is doing it on its side because all of the Ukrainian major

Hrant (00:05:25):

speakers have already stated that this plan is unacceptable.

Hrant (00:05:29):

And then they started negotiating with EU leaders to change the plan,

Hrant (00:05:34):

while Donald Trump has demanded to sign the current version of the plan.

Hrant (00:05:39):

So now they are changing it.

Hrant (00:05:41):

So obviously we can see that it's not going to work.

Hrant (00:05:46):

Because this plan was a least compromise,

Hrant (00:05:49):

which Russia could,

Hrant (00:05:51):

could take,

Hrant (00:05:52):

theoretically could agree.

Hrant (00:05:54):

And the less than that, definitely Russia will not agree.

Hrant (00:05:56):

The war will continue and the more death and destruction will follow.

Hrant (00:06:01):

So that's what I see here.

Hrant (00:06:02):

And by the way,

Hrant (00:06:03):

this plan,

Hrant (00:06:04):

why I'm saying that this is beneficial only for the United States,

(00:06:08):

because,

Hrant (00:06:08):

you know,

(00:06:10):

yeah,

Hrant (00:06:10):

Ukraine loses some territories.

Hrant (00:06:12):

But so does Russia,

Hrant (00:06:14):

because Russia also gives up territories in Dnepropetrovsk province,

Hrant (00:06:19):

in Kharkov and Sumy province,

Hrant (00:06:21):

which it controls right now,

Hrant (00:06:22):

and those are not very small.

Hrant (00:06:24):

So that's one thing.

Hrant (00:06:26):

Another thing, Russia agrees on many, many terms which it had not agreed before.

Hrant (00:06:34):

And the term of demilitarization with

Hrant (00:06:36):

you know,

Hrant (00:06:37):

maintaining 600,000 Ukrainian troops is not possible because Ukrainian army before

Hrant (00:06:43):

Russian invasion was 250,000 troops.

Hrant (00:06:47):

So how can you demilitarize Ukraine with gaining more army ultimately?

Hrant (00:06:53):

So I think this is, you know, pro-US plan, only pro-US plan.

Hrant (00:06:57):

No one can say this is pro-Russian plan.

Hrant (00:06:59):

Yeah, but obviously EU and Ukraine are not very happy about it.

Hovik (00:07:05):

So if it's a pro-U.S.

Hovik (00:07:06):

plan, does this mean that even Russia is not fully signed off on it?

Hovik (00:07:11):

And what is the U.S.

(00:07:13):

strategy?

Hovik (00:07:13):

Because I'm sure U.S.

Hovik (00:07:15):

policymakers are not dumb, as some people like to think.

Hovik (00:07:20):

What is their goal in proposing this plan if it's doomed for failure?

Hrant (00:07:27):

OK, now, first of all, on Russia's response.

Hrant (00:07:31):

As a very same evening when this plan was published,

Hrant (00:07:35):

and announced, the Russian leader Putin

Hrant (00:07:40):

has appeared in the military shirt and in meeting with his top military officials.

Hrant (00:07:48):

And they were telling him that they have great advances here and there.

Hrant (00:07:52):

And he was very firm, saying that we have upper hand on the battleground.

Hrant (00:07:58):

So this is first reaction of Russia.

Hrant (00:08:01):

The second reaction came on the next day when Putin said that,

Hrant (00:08:06):

yes, this is like a starting point for negotiations.

Hrant (00:08:09):

So he did not reject the plan, but he said that he is planning to renegotiate point by point.

Hrant (00:08:17):

Now, regarding the U.S., we have seen how U.S.

Hrant (00:08:22):

is going to use Russian funds, gain some more income, revenue and so on.

Hrant (00:08:28):

So lots of things regarding Trump is about that.

Hrant (00:08:33):

That's obvious.

Hrant (00:08:34):

But why U.S.

Hrant (00:08:36):

is negotiating here at all?

Hrant (00:08:38):

Because,

Hrant (00:08:39):

first of all,

Hrant (00:08:40):

this war from the beginning was a mistake and Trump admits it and he blames Biden

Hrant (00:08:46):

for it.

Hrant (00:08:47):

But anyway, U.S.

Hrant (00:08:48):

is in this situation and Mark Rubio has agreed that this is a proxy war.

Hrant (00:08:53):

So it is draining U.S.

Hrant (00:08:55):

resources.

Hrant (00:08:57):

Moreover, if Ukraine is losing, which is a fact in my opinion, then Ukraine

Hrant (00:09:05):

If Ukraine loses and U.S.

Hrant (00:09:07):

is Ukraine's ally, this means that U.S.

Hrant (00:09:11):

is losing as well.

Hrant (00:09:13):

So now U.S.

Hrant (00:09:14):

tries to leave Ukraine losing, but not to lose itself.

Hrant (00:09:19):

So in the end, U.S.

Hrant (00:09:21):

needs to be in the winner's camp, not in the loser's camp, as it always did.

Hrant (00:09:26):

The First World War, Second World War, U.S.

Hrant (00:09:28):

always arrived to the winner's camp.

Hrant (00:09:31):

So now Trump wants to create a winner's camp where first and the most important

Hrant (00:09:39):

person will be himself.

Hrant (00:09:41):

And the second goal is that if he will continue draining resources here and in the

Hrant (00:09:46):

Middle East,

Hrant (00:09:47):

he will not be able to contain China.

Hrant (00:09:50):

And since this is a long-term goal, you know, they need to acquire resources.

Hrant (00:09:56):

Moreover, there is a discussion about

Hrant (00:09:58):

economic further crisis in the US and in the global economy,

Hrant (00:10:03):

especially regarding the AI bubble,

Hrant (00:10:06):

which is most likely very big and most likely to burst at some point,

Hrant (00:10:11):

maybe not very distant future,

Hrant (00:10:13):

especially the debt crisis.

Hrant (00:10:15):

So, you know, in these cases,

Hrant (00:10:16):

you need to leave all the problems behind and to reboot lots of policies.

Hrant (00:10:23):

And this is part of that.

Hrant (00:10:24):

And if Trump is successful there,

Hrant (00:10:27):

Then he will show to everyone that his agenda is working while Democrats are failing.

Hrant (00:10:33):

So it's also about the future political power in the United States.

Hrant (00:10:38):

But if he fails, this will mean that Democrats were right and that Russia...

Hrant (00:10:43):

is not, you know, adequate partner and that their policy was right then.

Hrant (00:10:49):

You should not elect Trump and so on and so forth.

Hrant (00:10:51):

So that's also about the power in the United States,

Hrant (00:10:54):

especially given that the next election will take place in 12 months.

Asbed (00:10:59):

Around from Ukraine,

Asbed (00:11:00):

let's turn to Central Asia because it's been a pretty robust geopolitical month for

Asbed (00:11:05):

Kazakhstan already,

Asbed (00:11:07):

which is a member of the Organization of Turkic States and a close partner with

Asbed (00:11:11):

Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:11:12):

And Kazakhstan is also a member of the CIS and the CSTO.

Asbed (00:11:16):

First, on November 7, Pazakh President Kassim Jomar Tokayev went to the United States.

Asbed (00:11:21):

He met with Trump in the White House,

Asbed (00:11:23):

signed billions of dollars worth of agreements,

Asbed (00:11:26):

and formally joined the Abraham Accords.

Asbed (00:11:29):

And following that, Tokayev went to Moscow and signed a deep strategic agreement with Putin.

Asbed (00:11:35):

But nothing would be complete,

Asbed (00:11:37):

of course, without meeting the one and only Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia on his official visit

Asbed (00:11:42):

to Asana last week.

Asbed (00:11:44):

Pashinyan made it a point to thank Tokayev for a shipment of wheat through

Asbed (00:11:48):

Kazakhstan and then to Azerbaijan and then to Georgia and from there to Armenia,

Asbed (00:11:53):

all in the spirit of diversification of the Armenian economy.

Asbed (00:11:57):

Tokayev,

Asbed (00:11:58):

whose country tacitly supported Azerbaijan in the 2020 Artsakh War,

Asbed (00:12:03):

bestowed on Pashinyan Kazakhstan's highest honor.

Hovik (00:12:07):

Was it the Golden Borat?

Asbed (00:12:10):

Close, Hovig.

Asbed (00:12:11):

It was actually called the Order of the Golden Borat.

Hovik (00:12:15):

No, Golden...

Asbed (00:12:18):

It's actually called the Order of the Golden Eagle.

Asbed (00:12:21):

So let's talk a little bit about Kazakhstan a little bit.

Asbed (00:12:25):

Kazakhstan seems to be upping its political game.

Asbed (00:12:28):

They appear to be playing with Russia,

Asbed (00:12:30):

China,

Asbed (00:12:31):

the United States,

Asbed (00:12:32):

all of the West,

Asbed (00:12:33):

and they're doing this well.

Asbed (00:12:35):

How do you assess their achievements so far?

Asbed (00:12:37):

How are they managing to balance all of these superpowers?

Hrant (00:12:43):

Well, Kazakhstan is in reality...

Hrant (00:12:47):

trying to have a diverse foreign policy,

Hrant (00:12:53):

and it's rather successful,

Hrant (00:12:56):

but it has lots of resources to do so,

Hrant (00:12:58):

because on one hand,

Hrant (00:13:00):

they have lots of oil,

Hrant (00:13:01):

and on another hand,

Hrant (00:13:03):

they have lots of uranium,

Hrant (00:13:07):

and also a big territory.

Hrant (00:13:10):

Small population, though, but, you know,

Hrant (00:13:14):

very well located,

Hrant (00:13:15):

not very close to major conflict areas,

Hrant (00:13:18):

but not so far that you don't have any connection.

Hrant (00:13:22):

So it's somehow in a very good shape right now, Kazakhstan.

Hrant (00:13:27):

I have been there a couple of months ago and have seen how fast this country is developing.

Hrant (00:13:35):

So with small population and lots of resources, you can do a lot and they are

Hrant (00:13:40):

rather effective at that.

Hrant (00:13:43):

Although, of course, there is also some popular discontent as well, especially among the poor.

Hrant (00:13:50):

But anyway, Kazakhstan is quickly developing.

Hrant (00:13:53):

Now, regarding the foreign policy, I think that first of all, the

Hrant (00:14:00):

Central Asian leaders have some extent of deficit of legitimacy because they all

Hrant (00:14:08):

are authoritarian leaders and the West,

Hrant (00:14:11):

you know,

Hrant (00:14:12):

always questions any leader's legitimacy,

Hrant (00:14:15):

especially the authoritarian leader's legitimacy.

Hrant (00:14:18):

And while Trump is a transactional president, it's very easy to deal with him.

Hrant (00:14:24):

especially pleasing him with good words or negotiating some economic agreements,

Hrant (00:14:31):

which Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states,

Hrant (00:14:33):

especially Uzbekistan,

Hrant (00:14:34):

have done.

Hrant (00:14:36):

So in their view, they have achieved, to some extent, legitimization.

Hrant (00:14:44):

Also, I can remember how several months ago,

Hrant (00:14:48):

Central Asian residents have had a meeting with French leader and also they have

Hrant (00:14:56):

approved the Cyprus

Hrant (00:15:00):

territorial integrity,

Hrant (00:15:02):

which is not in line with Turkish foreign policy,

Hrant (00:15:06):

which shows that they are not very happy about Turkish pan-Turkism and

Hrant (00:15:11):

interventionism into Central Asia.

Hrant (00:15:13):

Also, they don't reject it.

Hrant (00:15:16):

So for Central Asian leaders and countries overall,

Hrant (00:15:20):

the so-called pan-Turkist policy of Turkey is not just about pan-Turkism,

Hrant (00:15:26):

but more it's about,

Hrant (00:15:28):

it's a path towards the West.

Hrant (00:15:30):

towards the Western markets, technologies and the development, let's say.

Hrant (00:15:37):

So Turkey is kind of mediator in their view.

Hrant (00:15:41):

And of course,

Hrant (00:15:42):

given that Turkey is strategically located,

Hrant (00:15:44):

it tries to utilize its location to pursue its own political agenda,

(00:15:51):

which is,

Hrant (00:15:51):

in my view,

Hrant (00:15:52):

very dangerous because Turkey wants to militarize Central Asia and militarize it

Hrant (00:15:59):

Furthermore, against Russia.

Hrant (00:16:01):

And UK is also in the game and US as well.

Hrant (00:16:06):

That is why US is brokering the so-called trip,

Hrant (00:16:10):

or let's be honest,

Hrant (00:16:11):

it is so-called Zangezur Corridor.

Hrant (00:16:15):

It is the same.

Hrant (00:16:16):

Although Pashinyan says it's not the same,

Hrant (00:16:18):

yes, the name is not the same,

Hrant (00:16:20):

but essentially it is the same because it is not Armenian controlled.

Hrant (00:16:25):

And I think, moreover, I think that even the U.S.

Hrant (00:16:28):

will not control it.

Hrant (00:16:30):

Because Turks were dreaming about Zangezur Corridor since 1920.

Hrant (00:16:36):

And they had, you know, input it into the Alexanderopol agreement.

Hrant (00:16:43):

And then many statements and so on.

Hrant (00:16:46):

And then the 2020 trilateral agreement.

Hrant (00:16:50):

And then Russia was in, so they had the goal to leave Russia out.

Hrant (00:16:56):

It was successfully fulfilled with help of EU, US, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.

Hrant (00:17:03):

And now the next goal would be,

Hrant (00:17:05):

I'm sure,

Hrant (00:17:06):

to keep US out of that as well,

Hrant (00:17:08):

because otherwise it will not be a corridor.

Hrant (00:17:14):

It will be not that corridor which Turks want.

Hrant (00:17:17):

Now regarding the Kazakhstan reaction,

Hrant (00:17:20):

The Kazakh leader has gave the same golden eagle to Ilham Aliyev for the trip,

Hrant (00:17:28):

and now he gave it to Pashinyan because he also,

Hrant (00:17:32):

on his part,

Hrant (00:17:35):

committed to this corridor as well.

Asbed (00:17:38):

Hrant, what's the significance of Kazakhstan joining the Abraham Accords?

Hrant (00:17:42):

Yeah,

Hrant (00:17:43):

that's a sign of,

Hrant (00:17:45):

that's one of the transactions because Kazakhstani elite needs legitimization as

Hrant (00:17:52):

they have connections in the UK,

Hrant (00:17:54):

but it's rather one-sided now with the US and then with France and then with Russia

Hrant (00:18:00):

and then with China.

Hrant (00:18:02):

And so, you know, they don't care much about Palestine.

Hrant (00:18:05):

They are far away.

Hrant (00:18:08):

The Kazakh leader is rather secular and Kazakh authorities are rather secular.

Hrant (00:18:12):

Moreover, they are afraid of Islamism in their country.

Hrant (00:18:16):

So that's one part of the deal.

Hrant (00:18:18):

And another, you know, getting better negotiation position with the U.S., it is important.

Hrant (00:18:24):

For U.S., it is very important.

Hrant (00:18:25):

For Trump, because the Abraham Accord, especially after 2023, became very difficult to fulfill.

Hrant (00:18:33):

And now another Muslim country, though it's very far away, but joins it.

Asbed (00:18:38):

So what's the significance of Kazakhstan overall for Armenia?

Asbed (00:18:41):

Why all this strategic partnership and friendship and giant state feeding of Pashinyan?

Asbed (00:18:49):

What's going on?

Hrant (00:18:51):

Well,

Hrant (00:18:52):

theoretically,

Hrant (00:18:53):

there could be lots of areas of cooperation,

Hrant (00:18:56):

although not very wide because,

Hrant (00:18:57):

you know,

Hrant (00:18:59):

the There are no common borders and not very much of potential,

Hrant (00:19:03):

but some areas of cooperation are obviously present.

Hrant (00:19:08):

Although,

Hrant (00:19:09):

as of now,

Hrant (00:19:10):

the platform for the agreement and for increased level of relations is Armenia's

Hrant (00:19:18):

pro-Turkish policy,

Hrant (00:19:19):

let's be honest.

Hrant (00:19:21):

So it's been done in this frame.

Hrant (00:19:24):

the very same way as Armenia has recognized Palestine and was recognized by Pakistan.

Hrant (00:19:33):

But again,

Hrant (00:19:34):

I'm sure that Armenia and Kazakhstan can have separate and rather deep relations

Hrant (00:19:40):

agenda,

Hrant (00:19:41):

but now it's about so-called order.

Hovik (00:19:43):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:19:45):

Not last week, but earlier this month, Armenia received a shipment of Russian wheat

Hovik (00:19:52):

through Kazakhstan, then Azerbaijan, then Georgia, and then eventually to Armenia.

Hovik (00:19:57):

The Pashinyan media made a spectacle of it, calling it historic.

Hovik (00:20:02):

One would think that Armenia was starving and this train arrived just in time to save Armenia.

Hovik (00:20:11):

So we want to talk about the shipment or the beginning of shipments of wheat

Hovik (00:20:17):

from Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:20:21):

What is the significance of this?

Hovik (00:20:22):

And is this really unblocking of communications like the Pashinyan media presents it?

Hovik (00:20:28):

And how did Armenia receive its wheat before?

Hovik (00:20:30):

Or maybe we were eating rice, I'm not sure.

Asbed (00:20:33):

Earlier we were talking about what kind of grain got through and it was,

Asbed (00:20:36):

I think we were discussing it was either grade three or grade four wheat that could

Asbed (00:20:41):

be used for animal feed essentially.

Asbed (00:20:44):

Was that possibly because the government did not trust that this thing coming

Asbed (00:20:48):

through Azerbaijan would not be mocked with and they felt like they could not eat

Asbed (00:20:52):

it?

Asbed (00:20:54):

And then I think you said Civil Contract people actually made the spectacle out of

Asbed (00:20:58):

eating this stuff and saying it was safe and it was good.

Hovik (00:21:00):

I think the Minister of Economy promised that he would eat that wheat.

Hovik (00:21:04):

So, yeah.

Hovik (00:21:05):

But,

Hovik (00:21:06):

you know, going back to my question,

Hovik (00:21:07):

Hrant,

Hovik (00:21:09):

you know, how would you assess this beginning of shipments from Kazakhstan?

Hovik (00:21:13):

And is it going to be only wheat?

Hovik (00:21:15):

What else can we receive through Kazakhstan?

Hrant (00:21:18):

Yeah, it was fourth grade cattle feed.

Hrant (00:21:22):

And...

Hrant (00:21:23):

In the end,

Hrant (00:21:24):

we learned that it was ordered for Samvel Aleksanyan to somehow find some wheat to

Hrant (00:21:33):

bring to Armenia.

Hrant (00:21:35):

So Pashinyan had very few time,

Hrant (00:21:39):

most likely when Aliyev announced that he is ready to organize some kind of

Hrant (00:21:47):

transit,

Hrant (00:21:48):

although not direct,

Hrant (00:21:49):

but through Georgia.

Hrant (00:21:52):

then Pashinyan decided to show this progress, not on the paper, but in reality.

Hrant (00:21:59):

Because he desperately needs to show the results to the public, which are absent.

Hrant (00:22:05):

I mean, yeah, there are lots of results for Azerbaijan, but none for Armenia.

Hrant (00:22:10):

And this very minor result for Armenia he needed to show.

Hrant (00:22:14):

So he organized some shipments.

Hrant (00:22:19):

of fourth grade wheat to Armenia in a very short term.

Hrant (00:22:25):

And initially I thought it will be shipped through Caspian Sea to Baku and then

Hrant (00:22:31):

through Baku,

Hrant (00:22:32):

through Azerbaijan to Georgia and then to Armenia.

Hrant (00:22:35):

But then I found out that it was shipped through Russia.

Hrant (00:22:39):

And, you know, from Kazakhstan to Russia.

Hrant (00:22:43):

I didn't understand what the sense in this diversification,

Hrant (00:22:47):

because even without Azerbaijan,

Hrant (00:22:50):

Kazakh was present in Armenia.

Hrant (00:22:56):

I mean, it is very hard to find any sense in that.

Hrant (00:22:59):

yeah of course besides you know you can show that yes through Azerbaijan now

Hrant (00:23:04):

something can pass i mean this is nonsense and i'll try to show why why it is

Hrant (00:23:08):

nonsense first this shows that Azerbaijan considers that any good which can

Hrant (00:23:15):

end up in Armenia, is subject to be stopped in Azerbaijan or to be released.

Hrant (00:23:22):

So Azerbaijan controls overall flow,

Hrant (00:23:26):

which means today they let it,

Hrant (00:23:28):

tomorrow they stop it,

Hrant (00:23:29):

and the next day they do something else.

Hrant (00:23:31):

So it means that Azerbaijan is not an adequate partner.

Hrant (00:23:35):

But they have their hand on pulse, so they control everything.

Hrant (00:23:40):

That's what Aliyev has shown.

Hrant (00:23:41):

Now what Pashinyan has shown?

Hrant (00:23:43):

Oh, we have another road.

Hrant (00:23:45):

which is, in fact,

Hrant (00:23:46):

not another road, because,

Hrant (00:23:47):

you know,

Hrant (00:23:48):

if you are bringing Kazakhstan to Russia,

Hrant (00:23:51):

to Azerbaijan, to Georgia,

Hrant (00:23:53):

then if you bring from Kazakhstan to Russia,

Hrant (00:23:55):

then to Georgia,

Hrant (00:23:57):

there is no difference,

Hrant (00:23:58):

except to you pay more to Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:24:01):

I mean, this is, in reality, this is nonsense.

Hrant (00:24:03):

But anyway, that's what it is.

Hrant (00:24:06):

And, you know, it was a PR

Hrant (00:24:13):

Event. Nothing else.

Hrant (00:24:14):

Yeah, spectacle, as you said.

Hovik (00:24:17):

Hrant, on November 12th,

Hovik (00:24:18):

so that's also two weeks ago,

Hovik (00:24:21):

the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency,

Hovik (00:24:23):

SVR,

Hovik (00:24:24):

posted an announcement on its website titled The Kiss of Yerevan,

Hovik (00:24:28):

with the obvious reference to The Kiss of Judas.

Hovik (00:24:32):

And in that announcement,

Hovik (00:24:33):

it alleges that Armenia intends to stop buying grain from Russia and instead

Hovik (00:24:37):

purchase more expensive grain from Ukraine using financial support from the

Hovik (00:24:42):

European Union.

Hovik (00:24:43):

And by doing so,

Hovik (00:24:44):

Armenia is said to be committing betrayal of Russia and severing another tie to

Hovik (00:24:49):

Moscow for political reasons.

Hovik (00:24:51):

Of course, Pashinyan denied this as nonsense.

(00:24:54):

But of course,

Hovik (00:24:54):

we remember how Pashinyan met Macron and von der Leyen in Europe last year and

Hovik (00:25:01):

discussed the stupendous idea of switching every Armenian from eating wheat to

Hovik (00:25:06):

rice.

Hovik (00:25:07):

And they actually treated it with utmost seriousness.

Hovik (00:25:10):

So what do you make of this announcement from the SVR and this back and forth

Hovik (00:25:15):

between Pashinyan and Pashinyan's response,

Hovik (00:25:20):

essentially?

Hrant (00:25:22):

First, regarding betrayal.

Hrant (00:25:24):

I don't remember Armenia committed, you know, its blood to buy wheat only from Russia.

Hrant (00:25:31):

I mean, you cannot betray in this case.

Hrant (00:25:34):

That's on one hand.

(00:25:36):

Yeah.

Hrant (00:25:36):

Second, you know, regarding the...

Hrant (00:25:40):

EU involvement.

Hrant (00:25:42):

If EU is pushing Armenia and if Armenian government is a subject to this foreign

Hrant (00:25:49):

political pressure,

Hrant (00:25:51):

which I'm sure to some extent it is,

Hrant (00:25:53):

then it is not a sovereign decision of Armenia.

Hrant (00:25:57):

I think it is very important to understand.

Hrant (00:25:59):

I mean, in this case, it's not about Yerevan, it's about Brussels.

Hrant (00:26:04):

And Russia has to deal with Brussels in this case.

Hrant (00:26:07):

And I don't know...

Hrant (00:26:10):

from where the Russian foreign intelligence got this information.

Hrant (00:26:14):

But from Armenian authorities' policies,

Hrant (00:26:18):

I can see that,

Hrant (00:26:19):

yes, they are trying to replace Russian wheat and remove it from markets.

Hrant (00:26:24):

And I can remember how a year ago,

Hrant (00:26:26):

head of Security Council of Armenia was speaking that,

Hrant (00:26:30):

yeah, we need to replace wheat with rice.

Hrant (00:26:33):

which obviously shows the intention to replace Russian with.

Hrant (00:26:36):

But anyway,

Hrant (00:26:38):

I think all of this is nonsense because,

Hrant (00:26:40):

you know,

Hrant (00:26:41):

it's the same discussion as replacing Russian oil and gas,

Hrant (00:26:45):

which is very hard to do because on the price side and on the many convenience and

Hrant (00:26:51):

so on,

Hrant (00:26:52):

it's not easily replaceable.

Hrant (00:26:54):

If EU wants to pay Ukraine additional amount,

Hrant (00:26:59):

So that Armenia pays the same.

Hrant (00:27:01):

I think at this stage, it does not make any significant difference for Armenia.

Hrant (00:27:08):

And if you want to pay, let it do so.

Hrant (00:27:11):

I don't see here that big deal as Russia does.

Hrant (00:27:15):

Maybe if EU stops paying, Armenia will start buying from Russia again.

Hrant (00:27:20):

I mean, if Russian proposal is good in terms of price.

Hrant (00:27:25):

So I don't see here a big deal, but obviously Armenian government is doing, you know,

Hrant (00:27:32):

Not diversification as Kazakhstan,

Hrant (00:27:34):

but a U-turn from Russia towards the West,

Hrant (00:27:38):

but being pushed by the West.

Hrant (00:27:42):

So being,

Hrant (00:27:43):

you know, in kind of forced and also using the connection with Armenian elite,

Hrant (00:27:48):

current political elite.

Hrant (00:27:51):

So, yes, it shows some reality, but not all.

Asbed (00:27:55):

Well, it's a little hard to separate the wheat from the chaff in that news.

Asbed (00:28:00):

Let's move on to domestic politics here.

Asbed (00:28:05):

Hrant,

Asbed (00:28:06):

as a result of gerrymandering and many other forms of administrative resources,

Asbed (00:28:10):

Civil Contract was able to squeeze a victory in the Vagharshapat elections two

Asbed (00:28:14):

weeks ago.

Asbed (00:28:16):

What is your take on these elections?

Asbed (00:28:18):

Does it set a precedent or predict what's going to happen in the parliamentary

Asbed (00:28:22):

elections in June of 2026?

Hrant (00:28:26):

Yeah,

Hrant (00:28:27):

it was a very interesting case because in reality,

Hrant (00:28:31):

since 2018,

Hrant (00:28:32):

the current government never made a large-scale fraud in elections until

Hrant (00:28:41):

Vagharshapat elections.

Hrant (00:28:43):

And it did not pass unnoticed.

Hrant (00:28:44):

Everyone noticed it.

Hrant (00:28:47):

And yeah, first was gerrymandering, as you said.

Hrant (00:28:50):

And then there was administrative resource and possibly some falsifications, some...

Hrant (00:28:56):

road and so on.

Hrant (00:28:57):

So I've tried to assess the extent of real vote,

Hrant (00:29:01):

and the vote for the ruling party would be most likely based on the statistical

Hrant (00:29:06):

data which was published.

Hrant (00:29:09):

If we exclude excessive votes in the community villages,

Hrant (00:29:15):

most likely they would gain some 42% to 43% of votes instead of 48.6%.

Hrant (00:29:23):

So some 3,300 votes out of 15,300 votes which they got are most likely a result of fraud.

Hrant (00:29:35):

And this is not surprising because the party which Pashinyan is making fraud during

Hrant (00:29:43):

elections in his own party...

Hrant (00:29:45):

And it is to be expected that he will start fraud in the national elections or in

Hrant (00:29:51):

the local elections.

Hrant (00:29:53):

But I see it in the wider context of Pashinyan's trying to eliminate the local

Hrant (00:30:00):

government in Armenia.

Hrant (00:30:01):

So three opposition mayors in which have been elected in Armenia are now arrested.

Hrant (00:30:12):

One have been killed.

Hrant (00:30:15):

And many elections have been manipulated the other way,

Hrant (00:30:18):

for example,

Hrant (00:30:19):

when the opposition mayor was elected and then

Hrant (00:30:22):

The authorities,

Hrant (00:30:24):

using brutal police force,

Hrant (00:30:26):

removed them from the office and installed their home.

Hrant (00:30:31):

There have been three cases like that previously.

Hrant (00:30:34):

So what we see here is the try and obviously successful try.

Hrant (00:30:39):

If we understand on the success that the government was able to physically realize it,

Hrant (00:30:48):

try to eliminate the independent local government governance in Armenia,

Hrant (00:30:53):

which is now fulfilled.

Hrant (00:30:55):

Now, regarding the election itself,

Hrant (00:30:58):

we could see that the participation rate in the villages world was inadequately

Hrant (00:31:03):

high.

Hrant (00:31:04):

In some villages, the authorities have received 80% of votes and so on.

Hrant (00:31:08):

So, probably is more or less obvious here.

Hrant (00:31:12):

While in many of Vagharshapat town precincts,

Hrant (00:31:18):

they got, you know,

Hrant (00:31:19):

some 33 to 36 percent of votes.

Hrant (00:31:22):

So,

Hrant (00:31:24):

you know, what is also important that there was no competition in reality because many of

Hrant (00:31:30):

opposition parties did not participate.

Hrant (00:31:34):

The competition was weak, so it's not only authorities to blame for that, but also opposition.

Hrant (00:31:41):

And authorities also implemented a very calculated strategy compared to Gyumri,

Hrant (00:31:50):

because they were talking that it's purely a local thing.

Hrant (00:31:54):

They did not let Pashinyan to arrive to Etchmiadzin to have a rally there because

Hrant (00:32:00):

Argishti Mehagyan,

Hrant (00:32:02):

who was a representative and who was a candidate of authorities to be elected as a

Hrant (00:32:08):

mayor,

Hrant (00:32:09):

he said that it will harm the civil contract party.

Hrant (00:32:14):

in this election so this election was completely you know uh faced with local

Hrant (00:32:20):

agenda you know streets you know transport uh and so family ties yeah yeah village

Hrant (00:32:26):

but at the same time the very same day they the Mekhakyan, when Mekhakyan was elected

Hrant (00:32:33):

pashinyan has announced that this election shows that the people of Vagharshapat want

Hrant (00:32:39):

him to continue attack on armenian church

Asbed (00:32:43):

He was very quick to say that.

Hrant (00:32:45):

Yeah. Yeah. Complete nonsense.

Hrant (00:32:46):

But, but, but, you know, he's trying to use any occasion to attack Armenian church.

Asbed (00:32:52):

I'm still concerned that this could be a precedent or a pattern for what's going to

Asbed (00:32:56):

happen during the 2026 elections.

Asbed (00:33:00):

And Harant,

Asbed (00:33:01):

while many political forces are gearing up for the parliamentary elections,

Asbed (00:33:06):

the RPA, the Republican Party of Armenia is taking charge of the effort to remove Pashinyan

Asbed (00:33:11):

with a vote of no confidence.

Asbed (00:33:13):

And most people call this just impeachment, both in Armenian and in English.

Asbed (00:33:20):

The impeachment candidate is David Hambardzumyan, who was... Where is he?

Asbed (00:33:26):

Yes, anyone?

Hovik (00:33:27):

Asbed, that's an easy question, Asbed.

Hovik (00:33:30):

If you're an opposition member, then your true place is in jail.

Asbed (00:33:34):

He was jailed two weeks ago.

Asbed (00:33:36):

David Hambardzumyan, the possible candidate for replacing Pashinyan, is in jail.

Asbed (00:33:42):

And,

Asbed (00:33:43):

you know,

Asbed (00:33:44):

perhaps taking charge is a little too generous a word,

Asbed (00:33:46):

since the Republican Party of Armenia is...

Asbed (00:33:51):

they haven't successfully convinced anyone to sign on board.

Asbed (00:33:55):

Although the Hayastan Dashinq people are on board,

Asbed (00:33:58):

they haven't been able to get the independent MPs on board and they don't even have

Asbed (00:34:04):

anyone from the large number of required votes from Civil Contract to defect over.

Asbed (00:34:10):

Now, we discussed this a couple of episodes ago,

Asbed (00:34:12):

actually the previous episode 487,

Asbed (00:34:15):

I think,

Asbed (00:34:16):

with Hayk Mamijanyan from the RPA.

Asbed (00:34:19):

He said that the key to the process is going to be street protests.

Asbed (00:34:23):

He said that the impeachment process has to be backed by street action to convince

Asbed (00:34:28):

the civil contract members to sign on.

Asbed (00:34:32):

We're in the winter months and it's very cold in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:34:36):

Is it fair to say that it's not an optimal time for street protests right now?

Hrant (00:34:41):

You know, the weather is not a major condition right now not to have a street protest.

Hrant (00:34:46):

Last year,

Hrant (00:34:47):

because of inadequate actions of opposition,

Hrant (00:34:51):

because of failures of opposition,

Hrant (00:34:52):

including the RPA,

Hrant (00:34:54):

Pashinyan got stronger.

Hrant (00:34:57):

In the beginning of the year, his approval rating was somewhere around 32%.

Hrant (00:35:04):

And now it has grown up to 40%.

Hrant (00:35:06):

So what does it give us?

Hovik (00:35:09):

But before that, you said 40%, but we're reading MPG polls that say, you know, 12%, 17%.

Hovik (00:35:19):

Are you talking about when, you know, you take out the, you know, non-committed voters?

Hovik (00:35:26):

It's not voter intention.

Hrant (00:35:29):

It is a prime minister approval rate, you know.

Hrant (00:35:32):

So if you ask people, do you approve prime minister?

Hrant (00:35:37):

You know, 32%.

Hrant (00:35:39):

a year ago,

Hrant (00:35:40):

almost a year ago,

Hrant (00:35:41):

in the beginning of 2025,

Hrant (00:35:42):

around 32% would say they approve,

Hrant (00:35:45):

around 60% would say they disapprove,

Hrant (00:35:48):

and some people would say they are undecided.

Hrant (00:35:52):

Maybe 55% or 57% were disapproving.

Hrant (00:35:55):

Anyway,

Hrant (00:35:56):

but after TRIP announcement and the large-scale propaganda campaign by authorities,

Hrant (00:36:05):

and while opposition was silenced,

Hrant (00:36:10):

Pashinyan got his approval rate increased.

Hrant (00:36:14):

That's one instance.

Hrant (00:36:16):

Another is that almost whole 2025 passed under competition or even clash between

Hrant (00:36:25):

RPA and the Hayastan bloc,

Hrant (00:36:28):

which means that they were fighting each other instead of fighting Pashinyan.

Hrant (00:36:36):

from which Pashinyan benefited a lot,

Hrant (00:36:38):

because since the beginning of the year,

Hrant (00:36:41):

both Hayastan bloc and the Republican Party have decreased their approval rates.

Hrant (00:36:46):

So what we can observe here is that because of their weak policies or non-well

Hrant (00:36:57):

calculated policies,

Hrant (00:36:59):

I think Pashinyan is now stronger than a year ago.

Hrant (00:37:02):

That's first and very important point.

Hrant (00:37:05):

And he was able to overcome the providing Azerbaijan with Zangezur corridor,

Hrant (00:37:12):

which he would not be able to do so if not,

Hrant (00:37:15):

you know,

Hrant (00:37:16):

weakness of opposition.

Hrant (00:37:19):

Of course, he jailed some opposition leaders back then, but, you know, not all of them.

Hrant (00:37:26):

So opposition could have had a counter campaign to show the problems with this trip corridor.

Hrant (00:37:35):

But they did not, which led Pashinyan to increase his approval rate significantly.

Hrant (00:37:41):

And also electoral vote intention as well, because there you can also see an increase.

Hrant (00:37:49):

Now, that's a problem.

Hrant (00:37:51):

So

Hrant (00:37:53):

If the Republican Party announces the protest actions right now,

Hrant (00:37:58):

not very many people will attend.

Hrant (00:38:00):

That's a big problem.

Hrant (00:38:01):

And regarding the impeachment process,

Hrant (00:38:04):

if you ask 100 people in the streets in Armenia,

Hrant (00:38:07):

what is it all about?

Hrant (00:38:09):

Almost nobody will be able to tell you.

Hrant (00:38:12):

I mean, the Republican Party got 5% of votes during the last two elections.

Hrant (00:38:19):

But even 5% does not support this agenda,

Hrant (00:38:22):

not because they don't support the impeachment of Pashinyan,

Hrant (00:38:25):

but because they don't understand the essence of the current process,

Hrant (00:38:29):

which is very important.

Hrant (00:38:30):

Because if we look at how many representatives of the Republican Party,

(00:38:35):

of course,

Hrant (00:38:35):

I don't mean Hayk Mamijanyan and several other prominent members,

Hrant (00:38:39):

but many low-level propagandists of the party were showing that this process is

Hrant (00:38:44):

directed against the Hayastan bloc.

Hrant (00:38:47):

Because they were saying that,

(00:38:48):

oh,

Hrant (00:38:48):

you see,

Hrant (00:38:50):

we are starting impeachment and Hayastan bloc is not joining us and so on and so

(00:38:53):

forth.

Hrant (00:38:53):

So the whole narrative was about, you know, who is a leader in the opposition.

Asbed (00:39:00):

But Hayastan Dashing has jumped on board.

Asbed (00:39:02):

Hayastan Dashing has jumped on board at this point.

Hrant (00:39:05):

Ultimately, yes.

Asbed (00:39:06):

Yes.

Asbed (00:39:07):

So when we were talking with Mamijanyan,

Asbed (00:39:10):

he was basically saying that impeachment and the elections are two threads that go

Asbed (00:39:15):

together in parallel.

Asbed (00:39:17):

But the issue that they were seeing was a lack of resources to push forward with both.

Asbed (00:39:24):

Do you really think that this is the issue facing the opposition,

Asbed (00:39:28):

that they don't have enough resources?

Asbed (00:39:30):

Or is it a, what do you think it is?

Hrant (00:39:36):

Well, of course, they know their resources better than me.

Hrant (00:39:39):

But in my view, they have more resources than they think, first.

Hrant (00:39:45):

And second,

Hrant (00:39:46):

they are not very efficient in utilization of their resources in the political

Hrant (00:39:51):

field.

Hrant (00:39:52):

So their technologies are outdated.

Hrant (00:39:56):

And if you look at the government,

Hrant (00:39:59):

and at the civil contract party at pashinyan how he is communicating with the

Hrant (00:40:04):

people it's not only about money and resources okay he has blog he's communicating

Hrant (00:40:11):

with people on a daily basis robert Kocharyan in in his on his side is

Hrant (00:40:18):

communicating with people once in two years do you need lots of resources to

Hrant (00:40:23):

communicate with people at least weekly

Hrant (00:40:26):

I don't think so.

Hrant (00:40:27):

So it's not only about resources,

Hrant (00:40:29):

it's about will,

Hrant (00:40:30):

it's about understanding,

Hrant (00:40:31):

it's about dedication,

(00:40:33):

and it's about,

Hrant (00:40:33):

you know,

Hrant (00:40:36):

understanding what are you planning to do.

Hrant (00:40:39):

And as of now, opposition is in some way afraid of taking power,

Hrant (00:40:45):

from what I see,

Hrant (00:40:47):

because they are afraid that if they take power and then Azerbaijan and Turkey will

Hrant (00:40:50):

attack,

Hrant (00:40:52):

They will be blamed for that.

Hrant (00:40:53):

So they are, you know, kind of maintaining the status quo.

Hovik (00:40:57):

Biding their time, right?

Hrant (00:40:59):

Yeah, yeah.

Hrant (00:41:00):

But you cannot do that forever.

Hrant (00:41:02):

But yet they are doing the same for the last several years.

Hovik (00:41:06):

OK, so let's switching topics.

Hovik (00:41:12):

Despite the Stockholm arbitration court's binding decision,

Hovik (00:41:17):

which ruled that Armenia must freeze its actions against the electric networks of

Hovik (00:41:21):

Armenia,

Hovik (00:41:23):

Armenia's regulatory agency,

Hovik (00:41:24):

the Public Services Regulatory Commission,

Hovik (00:41:26):

PSRC,

Hovik (00:41:28):

revoked the distribution license for electricity from the electric networks of

Hovik (00:41:33):

Armenia on November 18.

Hovik (00:41:34):

That was just last week.

(00:41:36):

Because,

Hovik (00:41:36):

you know,

Hovik (00:41:37):

who cares about international legal commitments when you have von der Leyen on your

Hovik (00:41:42):

side and you're destined to be a thorn on Putin's side?

Hovik (00:41:45):

But that's beside the point.

Hovik (00:41:48):

And we should remember that Samvel Karapetyan is the owner of the electric networks

Hovik (00:41:52):

through Tashir Group.

Hovik (00:41:53):

And he is also currently in jail for simply saying, you know, we will defend the church.

Hovik (00:42:00):

And according to also legal agreements that were deliberately rushed through

Hovik (00:42:06):

parliament and by Pashinyan this summer,

Hovik (00:42:09):

showing his intention to take over the electric networks,

Hovik (00:42:13):

if the ENA loses its license,

Hovik (00:42:15):

then the power grid must be recognized as publicly overriding interest,

Hovik (00:42:19):

or maybe it's translated to eminent domain in English.

Hovik (00:42:23):

Does this mean that this deal is done?

Hovik (00:42:25):

The power grid is now seized from Samvel Karapetyan?

Hrant (00:42:30):

Well, as of now, they are discussing reselling it to someone,

Hrant (00:42:35):

maybe some foreign investor,

Hrant (00:42:37):

maybe domestic investor,

Hrant (00:42:39):

which will be pro-government,

Hrant (00:42:41):

of course.

Hrant (00:42:42):

And I don't remember this scale of seizure of property in Armenia.

Hrant (00:42:49):

You had several cases under this government,

Hrant (00:42:51):

under previous governments,

Hrant (00:42:53):

but none of the deals have exceeded $30 million.

Hrant (00:42:58):

This time, it's about

Hrant (00:43:00):

you know, you can speak about six or 700 million dollars or even more.

Hrant (00:43:05):

So, I mean, whenever the power changes in Armenia, this will be subject of, you know, complete

Hrant (00:43:16):

redrawal of the terms and I think this is a big deal but at the same time this

Hrant (00:43:25):

government now tries to use all its resources in favor of itself even in economic

Hrant (00:43:31):

field there are even discussions of growing network of Pashinyan's family

Hrant (00:43:39):

supermarket 88 and then they are trying to capture the Yerevan city network and the

Hrant (00:43:46):

lots of other fields.

Hrant (00:43:47):

So they have been talking about monopolization during previous governments,

Hrant (00:43:52):

but they are doing lots of similar stuff in cigarettes,

Hrant (00:43:56):

in lots of other stuff.

Hrant (00:43:58):

So basically what we are observing is that it's redistribution of wealth in the country.

Hrant (00:44:05):

And this thing is very important for Pashinyan because electrical networks of

Hrant (00:44:10):

Armenia have lots of employees.

Hrant (00:44:14):

And he was afraid that Sanvel Karapetian

Hrant (00:44:16):

the day he has the political ambitions,

Hrant (00:44:20):

he will be,

Hrant (00:44:21):

you know,

Hrant (00:44:22):

utilizing this resource in favor of himself,

Hrant (00:44:26):

you know, for example,

Hrant (00:44:27):

to force his employees to protest in the streets,

Hrant (00:44:31):

which I don't think he would do,

Hrant (00:44:33):

but that's Pashinyan's fear.

Hrant (00:44:35):

So I think his driving motive was that,

Hrant (00:44:37):

because Samvel Karapetian on his side said that he is not gaining anything out of

Hrant (00:44:43):

this electrical network,

Hrant (00:44:44):

he is spending much more.

Asbed (00:44:47):

Hrant, a quick question.

Asbed (00:44:49):

If the Stockholm decision went against Armenia,

Asbed (00:44:53):

what investor would actually invest money in buying this company from basically

Asbed (00:45:02):

Pashinyan's government?

Asbed (00:45:03):

Have you heard anything about what investor groups might be interested?

Hrant (00:45:07):

Well, it could be Khachatur Sukiasyan or so-called Grzo.

Hrant (00:45:11):

That's one possible scenario.

Hrant (00:45:15):

Another possible scenario would be,

Hrant (00:45:17):

you know,

Hrant (00:45:18):

dividing it into pieces and selling it to different investors.

Hrant (00:45:24):

Another possible scenario would be to leave it under,

Hrant (00:45:27):

you know,

Hrant (00:45:28):

state control or even not even state control,

Hrant (00:45:31):

but it's prime minister office control.

Hrant (00:45:34):

The same thing they did with the Zangezur copper molybdenum combinate.

Hrant (00:45:40):

That's another thing.

Hrant (00:45:41):

And the next would be, you know, giving to some foreign investor for half or a third of price.

Hovik (00:45:47):

Are the news that the foreign investors, there was some news about Turkish investors.

Hovik (00:45:52):

Is there any truth to those reports?

Hrant (00:45:55):

Well, I have not seen any proofs, but I would not be surprised.

Hrant (00:46:00):

For a minute, I would not be surprised.

Hrant (00:46:01):

And that is a very good thing for Pashinyan because even if he loses power,

Hrant (00:46:06):

go and grab it from Turks and Turkey will start

Hrant (00:46:10):

using its military political pressure against Armenia,

Hrant (00:46:14):

and he will show it as,

Hrant (00:46:16):

you know,

Hrant (00:46:17):

this is how you treat Turkey,

Hrant (00:46:18):

that's what you get,

Hrant (00:46:19):

and so on and so forth.

Hrant (00:46:20):

So anything Turkey does against Armenia plays in favor of Pashinyan.

Hrant (00:46:25):

Anything against Armenia, he uses for his power.

Hrant (00:46:30):

That's his modus vivendi for the last seven years.

Hrant (00:46:34):

And when he speaks about Armenia and Armenians, he always says, you, not we.

Hrant (00:46:40):

That's what he says.

Hrant (00:46:41):

And giving it to Turkey for him would be beneficial.

Hrant (00:46:45):

But I mean, on one hand, Turks would also not be ready to pay for that.

Hrant (00:46:52):

I don't think Turks are ready to make any investments in Armenia.

Hrant (00:46:57):

Most likely they would grab something for free, but not pay for anything.

Hrant (00:47:03):

That's what I see.

Hovik (00:47:05):

For a few minutes, let's talk about the issue of political prisoners in Armenia.

Hovik (00:47:09):

This week,

Hovik (00:47:10):

we saw the continued persecution and extension of pretrial detentions for political

Hovik (00:47:16):

prisoners.

Hovik (00:47:17):

First of all, Samvel Karapetyan's pretrial detention was extended by two months.

Hovik (00:47:23):

I think he has been serving five months already.

Hovik (00:47:26):

Lydia Mantashyan,

Hovik (00:47:27):

the only female political prisoner,

Hovik (00:47:29):

had her pretrial detention also extended by three months.

Hovik (00:47:33):

She has also been

Hovik (00:47:34):

in detention for five months.

Hovik (00:47:37):

And of course last week we already covered the arrest and the horrible way that

Hovik (00:47:44):

Narek Samsonian and Vazgen Saghatelyan were just basically arrested by the National

Hovik (00:47:50):

Security Service and put in pretrial detention.

Hovik (00:47:53):

So

Hovik (00:47:54):

For our listeners who may just be tuning in to these issues,

Hovik (00:47:58):

why are these cases treated as criminal matters to begin with,

Hovik (00:48:02):

rather than political disagreements or political speech?

Hovik (00:48:05):

Salvat got up and just said, you know, we're going to protect the church our way.

Hovik (00:48:09):

How is that a criminal offense?

Hovik (00:48:12):

How is it justified internationally?

Hrant (00:48:16):

Well, those are obviously political cases,

Hrant (00:48:19):

and they are not even treated like criminal cases,

Hrant (00:48:22):

I would say,

Hrant (00:48:23):

because...

Hrant (00:48:24):

For example, Samvel Karapetyan is being convicted for coup d'état.

Hrant (00:48:31):

That's an official article there.

Hrant (00:48:35):

That's what they blame him for.

Hrant (00:48:37):

This is a political case.

Hrant (00:48:39):

But for foreign-sponsored human rights defenders, this is a good case.

Hrant (00:48:45):

Because if...

Hrant (00:48:47):

You can defend the rights of those who are pro-Western,

Hrant (00:48:51):

but you cannot defend the rights of those who are not pro-Western.

Hrant (00:48:55):

So if they are not pro-Western,

Hrant (00:48:58):

if they are representatives of Armenian Church,

Hrant (00:49:01):

three archbishops,

Hrant (00:49:03):

several priests,

Hrant (00:49:05):

many opposition representatives,

Hrant (00:49:09):

and so on and so forth,

Hrant (00:49:10):

are in jail.

Hrant (00:49:13):

But no one among these paid human rights defenders,

Hrant (00:49:19):

no one is making a statement,

Hrant (00:49:22):

condemning it,

Hrant (00:49:23):

condemning the government.

Hrant (00:49:24):

The EU is supporting the government.

Hrant (00:49:27):

I can't remember how it is.

Hrant (00:49:29):

A year ago,

Hrant (00:49:30):

after the crackdown on opposition,

Hrant (00:49:32):

where several people were injured,

Hrant (00:49:34):

the EU has made a statement that at least it's better than 2008,

Hrant (00:49:37):

so we support the government,

Hrant (00:49:39):

we support democracy,

Hrant (00:49:40):

and so on.

Hrant (00:49:41):

So by supporting democracy in Armenia, you know, democracy is a priority for the pro-Western.

Hrant (00:49:49):

So by supporting pro-Western regime in Armenia, they support authoritarianism in Armenia.

Hrant (00:49:54):

Because the EU is creating a borderline against Russia,

Hrant (00:49:58):

this region against Russia and Iran and as french president macron in the beginning

Hrant (00:50:04):

of 2024 said that armenia is a buffer state for us against Russian influence that's

Hrant (00:50:12):

what he said so that's our approach and if for creating a buffer state against

Hrant (00:50:19):

Russian influence you need to install an authoritarian government

Hrant (00:50:24):

you need to destroy all human rights, they will do it.

Hrant (00:50:27):

The same way they did in Ukraine,

Hrant (00:50:29):

the same way they did it in Moldova,

Hrant (00:50:32):

and during Saakashvili era in Georgia,

Hrant (00:50:34):

the same way they are doing it here.

Hrant (00:50:36):

So that is it.

Hrant (00:50:38):

It's a kind of neocolonial approach,

Hrant (00:50:41):

creating a buffer state against their geopolitical rivals,

Hrant (00:50:46):

yet speaking about democracy and destroying democracy at the same time.

Hrant (00:50:50):

That's what they do.

Asbed (00:50:52):

All right.

Asbed (00:50:53):

Thank you, Hrant.

Asbed (00:50:54):

Let's be done with our topics.

Asbed (00:50:57):

Let me ask each of you if there's something on your mind you want to share with our listeners.

Asbed (00:51:02):

Hovig, go first.

Hovik (00:51:04):

I don't have much other than I heard that Zareh Sinanyan, someone who I knew once,

Hovik (00:51:16):

and who I consider a friend,

Hovik (00:51:20):

is going to be visiting the US sometime in the next few weeks,

Hovik (00:51:24):

along with Moldova,

Hovik (00:51:25):

of all places.

Hovik (00:51:27):

He has been Pashinyan's tool,

Hovik (00:51:29):

and not a very sharp one at that,

Hovik (00:51:31):

I would say,

Hovik (00:51:32):

but to re-engineer the diaspora and create a so-called new diaspora that is free of

Hovik (00:51:39):

anything binding Armenia to its identity of Christianity,

Hovik (00:51:44):

genocide remembrance and nationhood.

Hovik (00:51:47):

So,

Hovik (00:51:48):

you know,

Hovik (00:51:49):

if anyone knows,

Hovik (00:51:50):

if anyone is invited to one of his private engagements with handpicked audiences,

Hovik (00:51:57):

I hope you can pose some interesting questions,

Hovik (00:52:01):

even if you don't fully agree with us.

Hovik (00:52:03):

But, you know, ask him what is the meaning of attacking the church, because he recently

Hovik (00:52:10):

brazenly said that there are no political prisoners in Armenia,

Hovik (00:52:15):

And he said that,

Hovik (00:52:16):

you know,

Hovik (00:52:17):

the church and everyone who's in jail is,

Hovik (00:52:20):

you know,

Hovik (00:52:21):

associated with Russia,

Hovik (00:52:22):

as if that is a death sentence.

Hovik (00:52:24):

So,

Hovik (00:52:25):

yeah,

Hovik (00:52:26):

I hope that if there's anyone listening to us,

Hovik (00:52:28):

maybe you can pose a few hard questions to Zareh Sinanyan.

Hovik (00:52:32):

I'm sure,

Hovik(00:52:33):

though,

Hovik (00:52:33):

that his audience will be pretty limited and handcrafted to make sure that he

Hovik (00:52:38):

doesn't get any questions at all that would inconvenience him.

Asbed (00:52:42):

Okay, Hrant, is something on your mind you'd like to share?

Hrant (00:52:47):

Yeah, a couple of things.

Hrant (00:52:49):

Yeah, this is a widespread Western narrative,

Hrant (00:52:52):

which is,

Hrant (00:52:54):

you know,

Hrant (00:52:55):

whatever is not pro-Western in Armenia is associated with Russia,

Hrant (00:52:59):

therefore should be destroyed.

Hrant (00:53:01):

We have seen an ugly article written by Thomas De Waal,

Hrant (00:53:04):

British journalist for Carnegie Endowment,

Hrant (00:53:10):

which was about the geopolitical context of Armenian elections,

Hrant (00:53:14):

and the same story,

Hrant (00:53:15):

Russia is intervening,

Hrant (00:53:17):

the Armenian church is pro-Russian,

Hrant (00:53:18):

Samvel Karapetyan is pro-Russian,

Hrant (00:53:20):

here and there,

Hrant (00:53:21):

everyone is pro-Russian,

Hrant (00:53:22):

so the government is

Hrant (00:53:24):

trying to preserve democracy by cracking down all the same bullshit we hear every day.

Hrant (00:53:30):

I mean,

Hrant (00:53:31):

I want us to stay focused on that,

Hrant (00:53:33):

and I want us to,

Hrant (00:53:34):

you know,

Hrant (00:53:35):

to reject this type of fake narratives.

Hrant (00:53:39):

And another thing which I want to share is that the last week,

Hrant (00:53:42):

Azerbaijan destroyed a two-century-old Shia mosque in Artsakh.

Hrant (00:53:49):

which is noteworthy,

Hrant (00:53:50):

because previously Azerbaijan only destroyed Armenian churches,

Hrant (00:53:53):

cemeteries and khachkars,

Hrant (00:53:56):

and now they destroy Shia mosque.

Hrant (00:53:58):

Although it was a small village,

Hrant (00:54:01):

rural Shia mosque,

Hrant (00:54:03):

but still it's a historical landmark for that small area.

Hrant (00:54:09):

And what is interesting here is,

Hrant (00:54:12):

in my view,

Hrant (00:54:13):

that first of all,

Hrant (00:54:14):

Aliyev with this step is,

Hrant (00:54:17):

you know, erasing Artsakh completely.

Hrant (00:54:19):

It's not about Christian Muslim anymore.

Hrant (00:54:22):

It's about, you know, building a completely different thing out of Artsakh.

Hrant (00:54:26):

And that Aliyev has always spoken about Shushi as a

Hrant (00:54:31):

historical heart of Azerbaijan and so on and so forth.

Hrant (00:54:34):

But now Aliyev is building a big new big blocks there instead of reconstructing the

Hrant (00:54:43):

story was destroyed by him in 2020 and by his father in 1992.

Hrant (00:54:50):

But anyway, that's one side.

Hrant (00:54:53):

Another thing is that

Hrant (00:54:55):

Under guidance of Turkey,

Hrant (00:54:57):

Azerbaijan is effectively becoming or sliding towards Sunni Islam instead of Shia

Hrant (00:55:04):

Islam, which was traditional for Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:55:06):

And this is also a sign of that,

Hrant (00:55:08):

I think,

Hrant (00:55:09):

which is also important to see because,

Hrant (00:55:12):

you know, many regard Azerbaijan still as a Shia state,

Hrant (00:55:16):

which is not,

Hrant (00:55:17):

which it is not.

Hrant (00:55:18):

It is on one hand, it is secular state.

Hrant (00:55:21):

On another hand, it is, of course, a Muslim state, but not very well-shaped denominations.

Hrant (00:55:29):

And especially now they have,

Hrant (00:55:31):

you know,

Hrant (00:55:32):

slow transition from Shia Islam towards Sunni Islam because Shia is Iran and Sunni

Hrant (00:55:39):

is Turkey in this case.

Hrant (00:55:40):

I was going to say,

Asbed (00:55:42):

Iran is going to be very happy to hear the news of a Shia mosque being destroyed.

Asbed (00:55:47):

Thank you, Hrant, for joining us today.

Asbed (00:55:49):

Appreciate your time and your insight.

Hovik (00:55:52):

Thank you.

Hovik (00:55:54):

Thank you, Hrant jan.

Asbed (00:55:55):

That was our Week in Review recorded on November 24, 2025.

Asbed (00:56:00):

We've been talking with Hrant Mikaelian,

Asbed (00:56:03):

who is a political scientist and multidisciplinary researcher in social sciences

Asbed (00:56:08):

based in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:56:09):

As always, we want to call on everyone to subscribe to our channel.

Asbed (00:56:14):

And a lot of people that we are finding are watching our shows are not even subscribed.

Asbed (00:56:19):

They get it through the YouTube algorithms and stuff like that.

Asbed (00:56:22):

So please subscribe to our channel.

Asbed (00:56:24):

Your numbers help us.

Asbed (00:56:26):

And like our shows,

Asbed (00:56:28):

share our shows,

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put it in front of new eyes so that those people come into our community as well.

Asbed (00:56:35):

And comment on our shows.

Asbed (00:56:37):

We read the comments and we participate in the comments.

Asbed (00:56:41):

And if you are able to,

Asbed (00:56:43):

go ahead and become a sustaining member.

Asbed (00:56:46):

Go to podcasts.groong.org/donate and pick either Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee.

Asbed (00:56:53):

You can give once or as we prefer, become a sustaining member and give monthly.

Hovik (00:56:59):

Yeah, I have to say, Asbed, last time I was in LA, I mean, just a few weeks ago,

Hovik (00:57:08):

I think we saw a marked difference in recognition.

Hovik (00:57:12):

I don't want to say we have celebrity status in the Armenian community,

Hovik (00:57:15):

but definitely I felt more people approaching us and recognizing us,

Hovik (00:57:20):

which is good.

Hovik (00:57:21):

I mean, our viewership is still minuscule,

Hovik (00:57:23):

and I think that within the Armenian community,

Hovik (00:57:27):

that is related to the sort of wide sense of apathy and post-war PTSD that people

Hovik (00:57:35):

and disillusionment with Armenia,

Hovik (00:57:36):

unfortunately.

Hovik (00:57:38):

And our goal is to change that.

Hovik (00:57:39):

But whenever we have an international guest, we have...

Hovik (00:57:43):

tens of thousands of views which is welcome and we're hoping that by bringing

Hovik (00:57:48):

international guests on our show we can also help uh you know pop up in front of

Hovik (00:57:53):

armenian eyes more frequently and um yeah I want to thank all my friends you know I

Hovik (00:57:58):

used to complain every time I went to la that none of my friends were watching the

Hovik (00:58:03):

podcast but Lou, if you're watching I wanna i wanna recognize you because you

Hovik (00:58:09):

have been

Hovik (00:58:10):

uh you know one of my friends who has been watching or listening to us from the

Hovik (00:58:14):

first day so uh thank you for that but many more of my friends are now like

Hovik (00:58:19):

watching this podcast so I want to shout out to them and if they're listening you

Hovik (00:58:23):

know, I want to say hi

Asbed (00:58:26):

Well, because I mentioned I had a similar experience yesterday.

Asbed (00:58:29):

Generally, nobody realizes that we are a podcast and we're talking about it.

Asbed (00:58:34):

So sometimes when you see a thousand or even 10,000 views,

Asbed (00:58:37):

you're surprised when nobody's ever heard of you.

Asbed (00:58:41):

But last night I was at a function here in Glendale.

Asbed (00:58:46):

And a friend approached me and said he's a listener of our podcast.

Asbed (00:58:51):

And he particularly picked on Pietro Shakarian's recent podcast with us where he

Asbed (00:58:57):

talked about the publication of his book on Anastas Mikoyan.

Asbed (00:59:01):

And he said, Oh, this one.

Asbed (00:59:03):

Yeah, that one.

Asbed (00:59:04):

That's right.

Asbed (00:59:05):

Right behind you.

Asbed (00:59:07):

Excellent.

Asbed (00:59:08):

And he said that not only had he liked that show,

Asbed (00:59:12):

but that show had made a difference for him in researching how his family,

Asbed (00:59:17):

his grandparents moved from the Middle East to the Soviet Union.

Asbed (00:59:22):

And then of course, his parents have left the Soviet Union and he's now here.

Asbed (00:59:26):

But that was very interesting.

Asbed (00:59:27):

He actually went in search of Mikoyan's famous speech in 1954.

Asbed (00:59:34):

And I was just amazed.

Asbed (00:59:35):

So that's why I texted you and Pietro this morning.

Asbed (00:59:39):

And Pietro woke up and said, basically, that made his day.

Asbed (00:59:43):

It was amazing.

Asbed (00:59:44):

So that was a great experience.

Asbed (00:59:46):

Thank you for listening to us, folks.

Asbed (00:59:49):

Okay, well, I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Asbed (00:59:51):

And I know from that book behind you that you are now back in Yerevan, Hovig.

Hovik (00:59:56):

Yeah, and if I can just leave on a positive note this time,

Hovik (01:00:03):

I want to share something else that's on my bookshelf.

Hovik (01:00:06):

This is, by the way, the books I'm currently reading and the books that are

Hovik (01:00:13):

some of the most valuable ones that I frequently refer to.

Hovik (01:00:17):

But on my bookshelf, I have this mini statuette of an angel blowing a trumpet.

Hovik (01:00:25):

You might recognize this from the Ghazanchechots Cathedral in Shushi.

Hovik (01:00:31):

And it has a very powerful symbolic meaning for Armenians.

Hovik (01:00:35):

And to me especially,

Hovik (01:00:36):

because I was at a protest and out of the blue,

Hovik (01:00:40):

this Artsakhtsi gentleman came up to me and he said,

Hovik (01:00:46):

I noticed you carrying this flag,

Hovik (01:00:48):

so I wanted to give this to you.

Hovik (01:00:49):

It is a...

Hovik (01:00:52):

honestly, the most cherished possession of mine.

Hovik (01:00:55):

And if you know anything about the eschatology,

Hovik (01:00:57):

to me,

Hovik (01:00:58):

this angel represents a call to service,

Hovik (01:01:01):

a service to God,

Hovik (01:01:02):

a service to our nation,

(01:01:04):

our homeland,

Hovik (01:01:04):

and our community.

Hovik (01:01:06):

It is also a reminder that we need a newfound commitment to rebuild Armenia.

Hovik (01:01:12):

Just like this cathedral in Ghazanchechots,

Hovik (01:01:16):

the actual angel statues were destroyed multiple times and rebuilt,

Hovik (01:01:21):

especially in the 1920 massacres of Armenians in Shushi.

Hovik (01:01:26):

I think so shall we commit to rebuilding Shushi and the cathedral in one day.

Hovik (01:01:34):

And this is, for me,

Hovik (01:01:35):

an ever-present reminder of my own duty and the reason why I do this podcast and

Hovik (01:01:41):

the reason why I thank you for listening to us.

Hovik (01:01:44):

And hopefully you can do more than just listen, whether it's taking action in your way

(01:01:50):

you know,

Hovik (01:01:50):

becoming an activist in your own way or supporting us,

Hovik (01:01:53):

like Asbed said,

Hovik (01:01:54):

which is, you know,

Hovik (01:01:55):

liking, commenting,

Hovik (01:01:56):

sharing and donating.

Asbed (01:01:57):

I wonder what happened to that fellow after all of what's happened in Artsakh in

Asbed (01:02:02):

the last three, four years,

Asbed (01:02:03):

the full ethnic cleansing in 2023.

Hovik (01:02:06):

Well, it was post-2023, so they were already displaced.

Hovik (01:02:10):

But yeah, we know that many Artsakhtsis are being deliberately...

Hovik (01:02:16):

pushed away from Armenia by this regime.

Hovik (01:02:19):

But I'm hoping,

Hovik (01:02:21):

and whoever gave this to me,

Hovik (01:02:23):

I want to thank them out of the bottom of my heart because it has become my

Hovik (01:02:27):

newfound treasure.

Asbed (01:02:29):

All right.

Asbed (01:02:30):

We will talk to you next week, folks.

Asbed (01:02:32):

Stay tuned.

Asbed (01:02:33):

Take care, guys.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Hrant Mikaelian

Guest

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