Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Eldar Mamedov - The Global Geopolitics Surrounding the South Caucasus | Ep 492, Dec 1, 2025

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 492

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Conversations on Groong - December 1, 2025

Topics:

  • US and Venezuela
  • Potential for New War on Iran
  • Is Azerbaijan a “Middle Power”?
  • Europe’s Confused Geopolitical Identity
  • Armenia’s Confused Geopolitics

Guest: Eldar Mamedov

Hosts:

Episode 492 | Recorded: November 29, 2025

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/SjcJMIis7sg

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/492

#IranCrisis #AzerbaijanPolitics #EuropeanGeopolitics #ArmeniaSecurity #SouthCaucasus #GlobalPowerPolitics


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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode.

Asbed (00:00:08):

We're continuing to discuss different aspects of Israel's unprovoked war on Iran,

Asbed (00:00:12):

which torpedoed the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and are leading the region and

Asbed (00:00:17):

the world closer to catastrophic war.

Asbed (00:00:19):

For this,

Asbed (00:00:20):

we will soon be joined by Mr.

Asbed (00:00:21):

Eldar Mamedov,

Asbed (00:00:23):

former Latvian diplomat and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute and a

Asbed (00:00:27):

member of the Pugwash Council on Science and World Affairs.

Hovik (00:00:32):

And Asbed,

Hovik (00:00:33):

of course, we'll talk about Iran,

Hovik (00:00:34):

but we,

Hovik (00:00:35):

in this interview,

Hovik (00:00:36):

will also cover multiple other issues,

Hovik (00:00:39):

including some breaking news about Venezuela.

Hovik (00:00:43):

So stay tuned, folks.

Hovik (00:00:45):

But before we go to Mr. Mamedov, if this is the first time you're seeing us,

Hovik (00:00:50):

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Hovik (00:00:51):

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Hovik (00:00:58):

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Hovik (00:00:59):

I'm in Yerevan in Asbed.

Hovik (00:01:01):

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Hovik (00:01:03):

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Hovik (00:01:05):

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Hovik (00:01:15):

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Asbed (00:02:04):

Mr.

Asbed (00:02:05):

Eldar Mamedov welcome to the Groong Podcast.

Eldar (00:02:08):

Thanks for having me.

Hovik (00:02:10):

Well, Mr. Mamedov, this is your first time on our show.

Hovik (00:02:13):

So as customary,

Hovik (00:02:15):

can we take a minute and tell our audience who you are,

Hovik (00:02:18):

what you do and what keeps you awake at night?

Eldar (00:02:22):

Sure.

Eldar (00:02:24):

Well,

Eldar (00:02:25):

I am someone who was a Latvian diplomat and I worked among other places in Latvian

Eldar (00:02:32):

embassies in Washington,

Eldar (00:02:34):

D.C.

Eldar (00:02:35):

and in Madrid, Spain.

Eldar (00:02:37):

Then I joined the European Parliament.

Eldar (00:02:39):

I was a senior foreign policy advisor for time spent for over 10 years.

Eldar (00:02:45):

And lately,

Eldar (00:02:50):

I'm a fellow for the Queen's Institute,

Eldar (00:02:52):

and I'm also a member of the Pugwash Council for Science and World Affairs,

Eldar (00:02:57):

which is a Nobel Peace Prize winning track organization dedicated to

Eldar (00:03:02):

non-proliferation and to world free of weapons of mass destruction.

Eldar (00:03:07):

So that's in a nutshell what I do.

Asbed (00:03:10):

Wonderful.

Asbed (00:03:11):

Mr. Mamedov, earlier this morning, Donald Trump announced that Venezuelan airspace is closed.

Asbed (00:03:18):

In a Truth Social post,

Asbed (00:03:19):

he wrote: "To all airlines,

Asbed (00:03:21):

pilots, drug dealers,

Asbed (00:03:22):

and human traffickers,

Asbed (00:03:24):

please consider the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela to be closed in its

Asbed (00:03:28):

entirety."

Asbed (00:03:29):

This has led analysts to warn that an attack may be imminent.

Asbed (00:03:33):

And The Intercept also reports that it has reviewed War Department documents outlining U.S.

Asbed (00:03:37):

logistics planning for a Caribbean buildup throughout 2028.

Asbed (00:03:41):

What's your take on these developments?

Asbed (00:03:44):

What geopolitical strategy or reasoning might be driving Washington towards a

Asbed (00:03:49):

confrontation with Venezuela now?

Eldar (00:03:52):

Well,

Eldar (00:03:53):

certainly this is a somewhat puzzling turn of events because the official

Eldar (00:03:59):

justification which is being used as a fight against drug trafficking.

Eldar (00:04:05):

But the main problem in terms of drug trafficking for the United States is fentanyl.

Eldar (00:04:10):

And certainly fentanyl does not come from Venezuela.

Eldar (00:04:14):

In Venezuela, there are some drug cartels which have been

Eldar (00:04:21):

designated terrorist organizations in the United States.

Eldar (00:04:24):

And President Maduro is designated or declared head of terrorist narco-trafficking organization.

Eldar (00:04:37):

But to the best of my knowledge, even the US intelligence itself

Eldar (00:04:45):

does not concur with this assessment that Maduro is the chief of drug trafficking organization.

Eldar (00:04:56):

Some officials within the Venezuelan government

Eldar (00:05:00):

may have some level of cognizance with those groups,

Eldar (00:05:06):

but there is certainly no conclusion,

Eldar (00:05:09):

to the best of my knowledge,

Eldar (00:05:10):

again,

Eldar (00:05:11):

that Maduro himself is involved.

Eldar (00:05:15):

So it looks like this project of regime change in Venezuela is left over from the

Eldar (00:05:21):

first Trump administration,

Eldar (00:05:23):

which was then preserved by people like John Bolton,

Eldar (00:05:26):

And obviously in the current administration,

Eldar (00:05:28):

the Secretary of State Marco Rubio seems to have very strong positions concerning

Eldar (00:05:36):

some Latin American people.

Eldar (00:05:39):

regimes that he dislikes.

Eldar (00:05:41):

And that's not only Venezuela, but also Cuba.

Eldar (00:05:44):

By the way,

Eldar (00:05:45):

we'll have to see what implications or what repercussions this situation has for

Eldar (00:05:50):

Cuba also.

Eldar (00:05:51):

But I think the main problem here is that there is a lot of talk about targeting

Eldar (00:05:59):

drug dealers,

Eldar (00:06:01):

about striking some targets in Venezuela,

Eldar (00:06:05):

but it isn't clear

Eldar (00:06:08):

that there is some strategy how to deal with this problem in the long term.

Eldar (00:06:13):

Even if the goal is the regime change,

Eldar (00:06:17):

I think no one doubts that the United States is powerful enough to remove Nicolas

Eldar (00:06:22):

Maduro from power.

Eldar (00:06:23):

But the question is, what happens then?

Eldar (00:06:25):

What is the plan?

Eldar (00:06:27):

And then it's inevitable that you ask the question,

Eldar (00:06:32):

did we not learn anything from regime change operations?

Eldar (00:06:35):

We had Libya, we had Iraq.

Eldar (00:06:37):

So how all of that work out?

Eldar (00:06:42):

None of these cases is even remotely success story.

Eldar (00:06:46):

And then another crucial aspect here is that Trump's base is very concerned about

Eldar (00:06:52):

immigration,

Eldar (00:06:54):

right?

Eldar (00:06:55):

And he himself has built a lot of his political platform on fight against illegal immigration.

Eldar (00:07:01):

But the destabilization of Venezuela

Eldar (00:07:05):

which is not Libya across the world,

Eldar (00:07:06):

it's in the Western Hemisphere right there,

Eldar (00:07:10):

will definitely push up a lot of people to the north,

Eldar (00:07:15):

to the United States.

Eldar (00:07:17):

So I cannot see how anything good,

Eldar (00:07:22):

anything useful for the American national security could come out of this

Eldar (00:07:28):

posturing.

Asbed (00:07:29):

Yeah, exactly.

Asbed (00:07:30):

My thoughts as well.

Asbed (00:07:32):

What do you think South America in general,

Asbed (00:07:35):

like Argentina and Brazil are going to think about this kind of interference in

Asbed (00:07:39):

their part of the American continent,

Asbed (00:07:41):

the South America?

Eldar (00:07:43):

Well, Argentina under President Millet,

Eldar (00:07:45):

is obviously very pro-American and quite recently they've secured a loan from the

Eldar (00:07:54):

United States just before the parliamentary elections in Argentina, which...

Asbed (00:07:58):

Just because they're such good people.

Eldar (00:08:01):

Exactly.

Eldar (00:08:03):

No, there is definitely an ideological interest in supporting Millais' government,

Eldar (00:08:08):

because that's one of the right-wing governments currently in South America.

Eldar (00:08:15):

And Millais himself has went out of his way to demonstrate his faulty,

Eldar (00:08:23):

not only to the United States,

Eldar (00:08:24):

but also to Israel,

Eldar (00:08:25):

importantly.

Eldar (00:08:27):

It's one of the most pro-Israeli governments right now in the world next to the United States.

Eldar (00:08:35):

It's suffice to say how they vote in the United Nations on issues related to Israel

Eldar (00:08:40):

and Palestine.

Eldar (00:08:41):

So there was clearly a political interest to rescue Argentina.

Eldar (00:08:47):

And on the face of it, it helped because it helped Millay to achieve a victory in

Eldar (00:08:58):

regional elections recently.

Eldar (00:09:00):

When it comes to Brazil, then, of course, the situation is the opposite.

Eldar (00:09:05):

The government of President Lula has always opposed heavy-handed attempts from the

Eldar (00:09:13):

north to medal in South America.

Eldar (00:09:17):

And I do not see how that can change.

Eldar (00:09:21):

So again, if we look to South America in a broader sense,

Eldar (00:09:26):

and I will also add Mexico here,

Eldar (00:09:28):

then we will see clearly the ideological divide with governments who are on the

Eldar (00:09:33):

left of center,

Eldar (00:09:34):

such as Brazil,

Eldar (00:09:35):

Colombia,

Eldar (00:09:36):

Mexico, also Chile.

Eldar (00:09:39):

likely to be very critical of these latest moves by the United States,

Eldar (00:09:46):

whereas the governments to the right of center,

Eldar (00:09:50):

such as Argentina or Paraguay or Ecuador,

Eldar (00:09:54):

could have a different view on that.

Hovik (00:09:57):

Interesting.

Hovik (00:09:59):

This is indeed a developing story.

Hovik (00:10:02):

And while it's not our normal cup of tea because we try to cover Eurasia,

Hovik (00:10:08):

we will,

Hovik (00:10:09):

to the best of our abilities,

Hovik (00:10:10):

try to keep our viewers informed.

Hovik (00:10:13):

But I suggest we come closer to the region that we cover normally on this podcast.

Hovik (00:10:20):

Mr. Mamedov,

Hovik (00:10:21):

earlier this year in June,

Hovik (00:10:23):

the entire world witnessed a war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.

Hovik (00:10:29):

The exchange showed how fast the region can slide into a larger fight and how

Hovik (00:10:36):

limited outside actors were in stopping it.

Hovik (00:10:39):

Iran signaled both its reach and restraint.

Hovik (00:10:43):

While Israel pushed for a harder line from Washington,

Hovik (00:10:46):

many feared that one misstep could turn a sharp clash into a full war and would

Hovik (00:10:51):

draw the United States,

Hovik (00:10:53):

Gulf monarchies,

Hovik (00:10:54):

and possibly even Russia.

Hovik (00:10:56):

Now today,

Hovik (00:10:57):

months later,

Hovik (00:10:58):

the core of the issues remain unsettled,

Hovik (00:11:00):

and the risk of a renewed confrontation still hangs over the region.

Hovik (00:11:04):

In fact, it has become a pastime predicting when it will happen rather than if it will happen.

Hovik (00:11:10):

But, you know, you obviously observe this region.

Hovik (00:11:15):

So I wanted to start by asking for your view on what we learned from that round of

Hovik (00:11:21):

fighting in June.

Eldar (00:11:24):

Well, you know, I was in Tehran in May for Tehran Dialogue Forum.

Eldar (00:11:29):

And I was one of the last actually Western analysts on the ground.

Eldar (00:11:35):

And the feeling at that time was...

Eldar (00:11:40):

that the deal with the United States was complicated, but it was not impossible.

Eldar (00:11:48):

It was complicated because after several rounds of negotiations,

Eldar (00:11:52):

the American negotiator,

Eldar (00:11:54):

Steve Witkoff,

Eldar (00:11:56):

changed the American position from no weaponization of Iran's nuclear program as a

Eldar (00:12:04):

red line

Eldar (00:12:05):

to no enrichment, no uranium enrichment on the Indian soil, which was not the American

Eldar (00:12:12):

red line, but in fact, the Israeli red line.

Eldar (00:12:15):

So this is where the negotiations have derailed and hit the wall.

Eldar (00:12:21):

Even so, Iranians were still hoping that some kind of creative solution could be found.

Eldar (00:12:29):

And then Israel struck just the day before the next round of negotiations between

Eldar (00:12:36):

Americans and Iranians was supposed to take place.

Eldar (00:12:40):

Now,

Eldar (00:12:41):

where we are now,

Eldar (00:12:43):

five months later,

Eldar (00:12:46):

unfortunately, there is no proper negotiation track between Washington and Tehran.

Eldar (00:12:52):

And that is because there is no one on the American side apparently willing to

Eldar (00:12:59):

engage in serious negotiations.

Eldar (00:13:03):

In Iran, after the war,

Eldar (00:13:06):

they are taking stock of what has happened.

Eldar (00:13:11):

I think two particularly important issues are worth pointing to.

Eldar (00:13:16):

First is the war has revealed,

Eldar (00:13:21):

again, the strength of Iranian nationalism,

Eldar (00:13:23):

which transcends the particular form of government that Iran has in this moment,

Eldar (00:13:28):

Islamic Republic.

Eldar (00:13:29):

And the second factor is that Iranian missile capabilities have proved to be credible.

Eldar (00:13:37):

So Iranians are building on that.

Eldar (00:13:41):

But at the same time, they definitely are not willing to engage in a

Eldar (00:13:49):

next round of hostilities with Israel and the United States.

Eldar (00:13:52):

So they are going out of their way,

Eldar (00:13:56):

messaging and signaling their availability and preparedness to talk and find a

Eldar (00:14:04):

diplomatic solution.

Eldar (00:14:06):

But unfortunately,

Eldar (00:14:08):

there is no partner on the American side that would show serious interest in

Eldar (00:14:13):

diplomacy. So this is where we are.

Eldar (00:14:15):

It's a dangerous limbo.

Eldar (00:14:18):

It can, if not resolved,

Eldar (00:14:20):

it can lead to a repeat of hostilities,

Eldar (00:14:25):

but perhaps at a more devastating scale.

Asbed (00:14:29):

Mr. Mamedov, you noted the lack of leadership towards more diplomatic moves.

Asbed (00:14:35):

Why is that? Is that because Israel maybe has pushed America in a corner where they don't

Asbed (00:14:41):

exactly know what kind of compromise to reach with Iran or is it just red line

Asbed (00:14:46):

against red line at this point?

Eldar (00:14:49):

Well, I think definitely the Israeli factor is a key one and you cannot

Eldar (00:14:56):

underestimate that.

Eldar (00:14:57):

And second,

Eldar (00:14:59):

my sense is that the Trump administration,

Eldar (00:15:02):

with notoriously short attention span,

Eldar (00:15:05):

that the president has simply moved on and is not prioritizing negotiations with

Eldar (00:15:12):

Iran.

Eldar (00:15:13):

We've seen lately a surge for diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine, which is very welcome.

Eldar (00:15:22):

The plan may be flawed,

Eldar (00:15:23):

but it's the only more realistic plan that's on the table right now,

Eldar (00:15:28):

the Trump's plan on Ukraine.

Eldar (00:15:30):

Now we discussed Venezuela just a few minutes ago,

Eldar (00:15:34):

so it seems to me that somehow Iran is not at the center of the attention of this

Eldar (00:15:41):

administration. Besides,

Eldar (00:15:42):

also let's not forget that Trump has boasted repeatedly that he has destroyed

Eldar (00:15:49):

Iranian nuclear program and nuclear sites.

Eldar (00:15:54):

So maybe this lack of interest is not such a bad thing considering the track record

Eldar (00:16:00):

of this administration on Iran.

Hovik (00:16:03):

And it seems like a very dangerous situation because if the United States attention

Hovik (00:16:08):

is distracted,

Hovik (00:16:10):

is the U.S. essentially sleepwalking into potential?

Hovik (00:16:13):

If Israel or Iran or someone tries to do a false flag operation,

Hovik (00:16:20):

You know, how likely is that scenario in your opinion?

Hovik (00:16:23):

And do you have any timelines?

Hovik (00:16:25):

Because your colleague from Quincy Institute,

Hovik (00:16:28):

Trita Parsi,

Hovik (00:16:29):

was saying war was inevitable,

Hovik (00:16:31):

but he was also saying that,

Hovik (00:16:32):

you know,

Hovik (00:16:33):

the ideal time for the opportunity window for Israel would be before December,

Hovik (00:16:38):

before the midterm elections in the United States.

Hovik (00:16:41):

Does Israel have a complete carte blanche to launch a war?

Hovik (00:16:46):

And if so,

Hovik (00:16:47):

and also,

Hovik (00:16:48):

yeah,

Hovik (00:16:49):

address, you know,

Hovik (00:16:50):

when do you think,

Hovik (00:16:51):

if the issue is about when,

Hovik (00:16:53):

I know predicting is hard,

Hovik (00:16:55):

but how close are we to,

Hovik (00:16:57):

you know,

Hovik (00:16:58):

one slight mistake turning into a war?

Eldar (00:17:03):

Well,

Eldar (00:17:04):

I think I agree with Trita in the sense that for Israel now is the window of

Eldar (00:17:09):

opportunity to strike again before Iran has completely reestablished its deterrence

Eldar (00:17:16):

and rebuilt its air defenses,

Eldar (00:17:19):

perhaps with the help of Russians and the Chinese.

Eldar (00:17:23):

So indeed, the sooner, the better from Israeli point of view.

Eldar (00:17:28):

Now, there are two obstacles to that.

Eldar (00:17:33):

First is Iranian deterrence,

Eldar (00:17:36):

especially the missiles,

Eldar (00:17:38):

and those have caused a lot of damage in Israel,

Eldar (00:17:43):

and not all of it has come under public eye because of military censorship.

Eldar (00:17:49):

in Israel,

Eldar (00:17:50):

but by all accounts,

Eldar (00:17:53):

the damage was far more severe than has been reported and allowed to be reported by

Eldar (00:18:00):

Israel.

Eldar (00:18:01):

So that's one. And second is the role of the United States.

Eldar (00:18:05):

Israel understands quite well that they cannot undertake an attack on Iran on their own.

Eldar (00:18:13):

They need the United States behind them.

Eldar (00:18:18):

Donald Trump is notoriously reluctant and allergic to long-winded and drawn-out

Eldar (00:18:26):

military campaigns,

Eldar (00:18:28):

which his one-off strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June has shown.

Eldar (00:18:36):

So I do not think that that will change,

Eldar (00:18:40):

and that definitely also plays into Israeli calculations.

Eldar (00:18:46):

On the other hand,

Eldar (00:18:49):

there is also a long track record of American presidents,

Eldar (00:18:54):

American governments going alone with Israeli actions in the Middle East.

Eldar (00:18:59):

So it's an open question whether Trump will summon the courage to say no to Israel,

Eldar (00:19:09):

should Israel go ahead with round two,

Eldar (00:19:11):

so to say,

Eldar (00:19:14):

or will he simply go alone?

Hovik (00:19:17):

During the June fighting,

Hovik (00:19:19):

we saw some indication that the territory of Azerbaijan could have been used or

Hovik (00:19:26):

whether it's for intelligence,

Hovik (00:19:27):

whether for passively or actively.

Hovik (00:19:29):

At the same time,

Hovik (00:19:30):

so Azerbaijan's close partnership with Israel raises real questions about how Iran

Hovik (00:19:37):

reads the strategic map.

Hovik (00:19:40):

We know that Baku offers Israel access, intelligence and presence along Iran's northern border.

Hovik (00:19:46):

And this presence could potentially be amplified by the recent trip.

Hovik (00:19:52):

We'll discuss the trip agreement.

Hovik (00:19:54):

We will discuss it separately.

Hovik (00:19:55):

But from Tehran's perspective, I think that's not a minor issue.

Hovik (00:20:01):

And it shapes how Iranian leaders interpret any clash with Israel and how they

Hovik (00:20:06):

judge the risk of two-front contingency.

Hovik (00:20:09):

So our question is, how much does this partnership change Iran's vulnerability

Hovik (00:20:16):

And I mean partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:20:19):

And how does it influence Tehran's choices when a crisis breaks out?

Eldar (00:20:24):

Well, definitely for Tehran, this is a major headache.

Eldar (00:20:28):

It's a national security dilemma at the same level as is the situation in Iraq, for example.

Eldar (00:20:34):

That's what I've been told by senior officials.

Eldar (00:20:38):

It's on the same level of magnitude because that concerns direct borders of Iran,

Eldar (00:20:44):

unlike Lebanon or Syria,

Eldar (00:20:46):

and also the question of territorial integrity of Iran.

Eldar (00:20:51):

Because let's not forget,

Eldar (00:20:53):

Israel's interest in Azerbaijan is the question of the so-called Iranian

Eldar (00:20:59):

Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:21:00):

which in Baku,

Eldar (00:21:01):

they call it "Southern Azerbaijan".

Eldar (00:21:04):

But...

Eldar (00:21:05):

The long-term strategy of Israeli hawks and their neoconservative allies in

Eldar (00:21:13):

American think tanks,

Eldar (00:21:14):

such as Foundation for Defense of Democracy or Hudson Institute,

Eldar (00:21:19):

is dismemberment of Iran along the ethnic lines.

Eldar (00:21:23):

So in that sense, Azerbaijan is seen as a key pillar of that strategy simply because...

Eldar (00:21:32):

Azerbaijanis are the biggest ethnic component in Iran after Persians.

Eldar (00:21:41):

Of course,

Eldar (00:21:42):

the overwhelming majority of Azerbaijanis,

Eldar (00:21:44):

they feel identified with the Iranian state and there's no evidence that any

Eldar (00:21:49):

significant number of them would harbor any irredentist or separatist sentiment.

Eldar (00:21:55):

But there is definitely a pan-Turkist minority,

Eldar (00:22:01):

on the fringes, which is being cultivated by Baku, Ankara, and Jerusalem.

Eldar (00:22:08):

And the plan is to use that sentiment to incite internal unrest in Iran.

Eldar (00:22:21):

So that's

Eldar (00:22:23):

That's, let's say, the strategic, long-term strategic goal of those circles.

Eldar (00:22:31):

At this juncture right now,

Eldar (00:22:36):

the value of Azerbaijan for Israel is because it provides a foothold right on

Eldar (00:22:42):

Iran's border for intelligence operations and as a launch pad also

Eldar (00:22:52):

against Iran and there's a strong suspicion in Iran that Azerbaijani territory

Eldar (00:23:01):

indeed was used by Israel for drone attacks inside Iran.

Eldar (00:23:08):

I cannot judge independently but I think it's highly likely and highly credible that

Eldar (00:23:15):

the territory of Azerbaijan could have been used for that purposes.

Eldar (00:23:19):

And of course, the authorities in Tehran see this as a major security threat for their country.

Hovik (00:23:28):

It's interesting that you mentioned Ankara in that mix.

Hovik (00:23:31):

And it's not very common that people talk about Ankara.

Hovik (00:23:36):

But I think it is also not uncommon to see Turkish generals being interviewed on

Hovik (00:23:42):

television publicly emphasizing the need to ensure security of their brethren

Hovik (00:23:48):

should the necessity arise.

Hovik (00:23:51):

How likely is

Hovik (00:23:56):

If a worst case scenario happens and Iran splinters,

Hovik (00:24:01):

how likely is both Azerbaijani and more importantly,

Hovik (00:24:04):

I think for us,

Hovik (00:24:05):

because it's overlooked,

Hovik (00:24:06):

Turkish involvement?

Hovik (00:24:08):

Because Turkey is also very good at diplomacy and plays that sort of balanced hand.

Hovik (00:24:14):

But do Iranians see a threat coming from Turkey with regard to that scenario?

Hovik (00:24:22):

Definitely.

Eldar (00:24:23):

Erdogan himself,

Eldar (00:24:25):

let's not forget,

Eldar (00:24:26):

at the so-called Victory Parade in Baku following the Second Karabakh War in 2020,

Eldar (00:24:33):

he himself recited a poem which was interpreted in Tehran as a kind of message that

Eldar (00:24:42):

he sees himself as a protector of Turks worldwide,

Eldar (00:24:46):

including the other Turks in Iran.

Eldar (00:24:49):

So definitely there is this element of apprehension.

Eldar (00:24:54):

On the other hand,

Eldar (00:24:56):

Iran has always managed to handle its relations with Turkey within,

Eldar (00:25:04):

let's say,

Eldar (00:25:05):

confines of diplomatic dialogue,

Eldar (00:25:09):

even though at times,

Eldar (00:25:12):

occasionally relations really hit rocks and...

Eldar (00:25:19):

become more turbulent,

Eldar (00:25:21):

but at the end of the day,

Eldar (00:25:24):

both states have a very long tradition of managing their disagreements.

Eldar (00:25:33):

They have cooperation,

Eldar (00:25:35):

they have disagreements,

Eldar (00:25:37):

but somehow they always manage to find a diplomatic solution to their differences.

Eldar (00:25:45):

So in that sense,

Eldar (00:25:48):

I think Tehran will keep trying to manage and contain those tensions with Ankara,

Eldar (00:25:56):

especially now that Ankara is also becoming a rival for Israel in the Middle East.

Eldar (00:26:04):

So we'll have to see how that works out.

Eldar (00:26:07):

But that does not, of course, change the fact that from an Iranian perspective,

Eldar (00:26:14):

The strengthening of Turkish role in the Middle East and in the Caucasus obviously

Eldar (00:26:21):

is a long-term challenge,

Eldar (00:26:25):

especially because Turkey never hesitates to play the ethnic cards.

Eldar (00:26:29):

They played it in Syria with Syrian tour commands.

Eldar (00:26:31):

They tried to play it in Iraq with Iraqi tour commands.

Eldar (00:26:36):

I already alluded to those

Eldar (00:26:38):

statements made by Erdogan.

Eldar (00:26:41):

And we also see their ambitions in Central Asia and how they try to strengthen and

Eldar (00:26:48):

foster the organization of Turkic states.

Eldar (00:26:51):

So this ethnically Turkic element has always been very important in Turkish foreign policy.

Eldar (00:27:01):

I don't foresee that it will become less so.

Eldar (00:27:03):

And that's definitely a long term challenge for Iran.

Eldar (00:27:08):

But I would also say for Russia as well, given the existence of Turkic enclaves in Russia.

Hovik (00:27:17):

Now, okay, here comes the most weird part of the developments over the last three months.

Hovik (00:27:26):

You know, this didn't exist in June,

Hovik (00:27:27):

but in August,

Hovik (00:27:29):

we suddenly learned that Aliyev and Pashinyan were in the White House being fatahed

Hovik (00:27:35):

by Trump.

Hovik (00:27:37):

And the end result was this agreement called the Trump route for international

Hovik (00:27:42):

peace and prosperity,

Hovik (00:27:45):

which many just say is another word for the Zangezur Corridor that links Turkey and

Hovik (00:27:50):

Azerbaijan across Armenia.

Hovik (00:27:54):

And there is some question about the territorial integrity of Armenia related to that.

Hovik (00:28:03):

Of course, it's still in the development stages.

Hovik (00:28:06):

They're discussing whether it'll be a 50-year lease or a 99-year lease.

Hovik (00:28:11):

How does Iran view this trip agreement?

Hovik (00:28:15):

Because we've seen equivocation, I think, from Iranian leaders.

Hovik (00:28:20):

The hardliners say that it is a threat, while the reformists are more cautious.

Asbed (00:28:28):

Like the president's office.

Hovik (00:28:30):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:28:31):

And so does the trip agreement,

Hovik (00:28:33):

in essence,

Hovik (00:28:34):

bring Israel into Armenia,

Hovik (00:28:36):

Israel,

Hovik (00:28:37):

United States together?

Hovik (00:28:38):

And could we see Armenia used in a new war against Iran if this project is materialized?

Eldar (00:28:46):

From Iranian perspective,

Eldar (00:28:47):

whether we're talking about hardliners or reformists,

Eldar (00:28:51):

that's definitely development,

Eldar (00:28:53):

which is very concerning because

Eldar (00:28:56):

Beyond the ideological differences,

Eldar (00:28:59):

there are strategic interests of the state,

Eldar (00:29:03):

which are immutable.

Eldar (00:29:04):

And from Iranian perspective,

Eldar (00:29:07):

being isolated from the South Caucasus and from the only friendly border they have,

Eldar (00:29:16):

which is with Armenia,

Eldar (00:29:18):

that would obviously weaken Iran's strategic position,

Eldar (00:29:23):

especially because

Eldar (00:29:27):

The TRIP project involves getting Americans on the ground.

Eldar (00:29:36):

And there are also,

Eldar (00:29:38):

on the Iranian side,

Eldar (00:29:41):

suspicions that the current Armenian government is becoming too friendly to Israel

Eldar (00:29:48):

and too ready to lend itself,

Eldar (00:29:52):

so to say, to Israel and to the United States

Eldar (00:29:55):

to wage their geopolitical battles against their adversaries,

Eldar (00:30:02):

namely Russia and Iran,

Eldar (00:30:05):

of course, especially Iran from the point of view of Israel and the United States.

Eldar (00:30:10):

So the question is what Iran can do about that.

Eldar (00:30:15):

And here,

Eldar (00:30:17):

of course,

Eldar (00:30:19):

the overall assessment of Iran's position,

Eldar (00:30:22):

strategic position,

Eldar (00:30:23):

military position,

Eldar (00:30:24):

economic position,

Eldar (00:30:25):

kicks in after the war in June with Israel.

Eldar (00:30:29):

To what extent Iran is really capable of preventing developments in the Caucasus

Eldar (00:30:41):

that are detrimental to its security.

Eldar (00:30:45):

And here we see determination in the speeches, in the statements of the leaders of Iran.

Eldar (00:30:57):

And it could be said that it does play some deterring role on behavior of Baku,

Eldar (00:31:05):

because after all,

Eldar (00:31:08):

the regime in Baku never dared to push so-called Zangezur corridor militarily.

Eldar (00:31:16):

But all of that being said,

Eldar (00:31:19):

it is still to be seen to what extent Iran can prevent developments that are

Eldar (00:31:25):

detrimental to it.

Eldar (00:31:27):

But it also depends on how the project itself will evolve.

Eldar (00:31:30):

So far, there was a meeting in the White House.

Eldar (00:31:33):

There was this flashy announcement of TRIPP.

Eldar (00:31:38):

But...

Eldar (00:31:39):

The whole project is still very short on specifics.

Eldar (00:31:42):

What exactly it will entail, how and on what basis, on what legislative basis it will operate.

Eldar (00:31:52):

Will there be also American boots on the ground to protect the American investment

Eldar (00:31:57):

that is supposed to be coming?

Eldar (00:31:59):

So all of these issues are still open and Iranian reaction will obviously depend on

Eldar (00:32:06):

how these gaps are going to be filled in with time.

Asbed (00:32:09):

Yeah,

Asbed (00:32:10):

all these details are missing,

Asbed (00:32:12):

as you said, but it has given Ilham Aliyev enough grounds to declare Azerbaijan as having

Asbed (00:32:17):

graduated from a small state to a middle power.

Asbed (00:32:21):

And interestingly,

Asbed (00:32:22):

in a recent article that you wrote in Le Monde Diplomatic,

Asbed (00:32:26):

you co-authored it,

Asbed (00:32:28):

I think, on Azerbaijan's role in the Middle East,

Asbed (00:32:31):

and you argued that Baku is no longer a small regional actor,

Asbed (00:32:35):

but a government that tries to insert itself into bigger Middle Eastern rivalries.

Asbed (00:32:40):

You note that Azerbaijan uses its ties with Israel,

Asbed (00:32:43):

its messaging on Palestine,

Asbed (00:32:45):

and its outreach to Gulf states to build influence beyond the South Caucasus.

Asbed (00:32:49):

Maybe Aliyev is taking his lead from Erdogan and his methods.

Asbed (00:32:54):

What's Baku trying to achieve with this wider geopolitical play?

Asbed (00:32:58):

How much of it is about prestige?

Asbed (00:33:01):

How much of it is about leverage against Iran?

Asbed (00:33:03):

And how much of it is driven by the need for Aliyev's authoritarian regime looking

Asbed (00:33:10):

for new patrons?

Eldar (00:33:13):

Well, I think more than anything, it's a prestige-driven project.

Eldar (00:33:20):

Indeed,

Eldar (00:33:21):

after the Karabakh Wars in 2020 and 2023,

Eldar (00:33:24):

there is a certain tendency in Baku circles,

Eldar (00:33:30):

media circles and political circles to inflate the importance of Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:33:39):

As rightly pointed out,

Eldar (00:33:40):

there is this constant talk about Azerbaijan becoming "middle power" leader in the

Eldar (00:33:47):

South Caucasus.

Eldar (00:33:48):

And from that perspective,

Eldar (00:33:52):

trying to expand the influence and trying to play a bigger role in Middle East,

Eldar (00:33:58):

but also,

Eldar (00:33:59):

by the way, in Central Asia,

Eldar (00:34:00):

but that's a separate topic.

Eldar (00:34:02):

So, of course, that all...

Eldar (00:34:07):

fits into that strategy.

Eldar (00:34:10):

Now,

Eldar (00:34:11):

how successful it can be,

Eldar (00:34:15):

how impactful it really is in the Middle East,

Eldar (00:34:19):

that,

Eldar (00:34:20):

of course, is a different question because Azerbaijan is still seen as a newcomer.

Eldar (00:34:26):

as a newcomer that acts with a little bit of excess of self-confidence.

Eldar (00:34:35):

But in reality, it's not clear what can it bring to the table in the Middle East.

Eldar (00:34:43):

It lacks the historical penetration,

Eldar (00:34:47):

credibility,

Eldar (00:34:48):

and networks that more established Middle East powers such as Iran or Saudi Arabia

Eldar (00:34:54):

or Egypt have.

Eldar (00:34:57):

Azerbaijan does not have that.

Eldar (00:34:58):

It doesn't have networks, doesn't have a proper expertise.

Eldar (00:35:06):

It's developing, but it's still not on a level of real, really serious players in the region.

Eldar (00:35:14):

So occasionally there is something more tangible than just power play, such as...

Eldar (00:35:23):

The new relationship with Syria,

Eldar (00:35:26):

with the new Syrian government,

Eldar (00:35:28):

attempts to play an energy role in the Middle East.

Eldar (00:35:33):

But again, Middle East is a very crowded region.

Eldar (00:35:36):

And there are a lot of ambitious players who have much stronger credentials than Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:35:46):

to play a role, military credentials, financial credentials.

Eldar (00:35:49):

Here we are talking about Persian Gulf states.

Eldar (00:35:53):

So we will see where it all leads.

Eldar (00:35:58):

But for now, indeed, it does look more like some sort of Moscow-flexing situation.

Eldar (00:36:08):

for a country that is brimming with self-confidence after its recent successes in

Eldar (00:36:16):

the South Caucasus.

Asbed (00:36:17):

Yeah, maybe some post-2020 war euphoria is still under their wings.

Eldar (00:36:20):

Definitely, definitely, definitely.

Asbed (00:36:23):

Yeah, because they've also,

Asbed (00:36:25):

I think, offered to become part of the international security force,

Asbed (00:36:28):

the ISF for Gaza,

Asbed (00:36:30):

but they haven't really been accepted because I think they're noted as friends of

Asbed (00:36:35):

Israel. So basically, the Arab countries have been very reluctant to accept that.

Asbed (00:36:40):

But you're a diplomat in Europe,

Asbed (00:36:43):

and I want to ask you a couple of questions on that front,

Asbed (00:36:47):

actually,

Asbed (00:36:48):

because when we look at Europe today,

Asbed (00:36:50):

the geopolitical line often seems a little uncertain,

Asbed (00:36:53):

especially on the question of war and diplomacy in Ukraine.

Asbed (00:36:58):

Recent attempts to explore negotiations or even to open channels for de-escalation

Asbed (00:37:03):

have met strong resistance in many European capitals.

Asbed (00:37:09):

Instead of shaping a coherent strategy,

Asbed (00:37:11):

Europe has often reacted to events and aligns itself with the most maximalist

Asbed (00:37:17):

positions in Washington and among its own hawks.

Asbed (00:37:23):

Why is Europe so reluctant in considering diplomatic off-ramps?

Asbed (00:37:26):

What explains their collective reflex to oppose talks that could ease the conflict

Asbed (00:37:31):

and how much of it comes from a fear of looking weak or like a very junior partner

Asbed (00:37:37):

of the United States rather than a clear sense of Europe's own long-term interests?

Eldar (00:37:43):

In fact, the European opposition and maximalism in terms of the war in Ukraine

Eldar (00:37:50):

is puzzling,

Eldar (00:37:51):

to say the least, because it's obvious that the longer the war drags on,

Eldar (00:37:55):

the more vulnerable Europe becomes economically from the point of view of security.

Eldar (00:38:02):

There were,

Eldar (00:38:03):

over the summer,

Eldar (00:38:04):

there were incidents with Russian planes entering the airspace of EU and NATO

Eldar (00:38:11):

countries.

Eldar (00:38:13):

And it's clear that as long as the war in Ukraine goes on,

Eldar (00:38:19):

the bigger the scope for escalation, spilling over to Europe beyond the current front lines.

Eldar (00:38:30):

So one would assume that given that reality and geographical proximity of Europe to

Eldar (00:38:42):

Russia and to Ukraine,

Eldar (00:38:44):

that Europe would be much more willing

Eldar (00:38:47):

to end this war than the United States,

Eldar (00:38:50):

which after all is beyond the ocean and doesn't have such a critical stake at

Eldar (00:38:58):

what's going on in the European continent.

Eldar (00:39:01):

And yet we see the opposite.

Eldar (00:39:05):

We see that the United States is being more pragmatic and Europe is being more maximalist.

Eldar (00:39:10):

So why is that happening?

Eldar (00:39:11):

My...

Eldar (00:39:16):

view is that what European elites are really scared of is not so much Russia

Eldar (00:39:22):

invading NATO European Union tomorrow Russia is not going to invade because Russia

Eldar (00:39:29):

has no capability to take on NATO Russia is sucked in Ukraine for three and a half

Eldar (00:39:39):

years now making very slow progress it's making progress on the ground but very

Eldar (00:39:44):

slow one

Eldar (00:39:45):

So it's not credible,

Eldar (00:39:49):

all this fear-mongering,

Eldar (00:39:50):

that once Russia is done with Ukraine,

Eldar (00:39:53):

then it will invade a NATO country next,

Eldar (00:39:56):

because that would mean a war with NATO.

Eldar (00:39:58):

And NATO heavily overmatches and outmatches Russia on every metric in every respect.

Eldar (00:40:05):

So why then the European leaders use this scare-mongering?

Eldar (00:40:12):

I think their main fear is to lose their status as a junior partner of a hegemon, right?

Eldar (00:40:22):

If United States...

Asbed (00:40:26):

It's the clear leader of NATO,

Asbed (00:40:28):

so they're at best junior partners in the deal.

Eldar (00:40:31):

Yeah, if the United States reconsiders its globally hegemonic role and there are signs

Eldar (00:40:38):

within the Republican Party,

Eldar (00:40:39):

within the America First movement that indeed

Eldar (00:40:42):

and the hegemony and primacy are increasingly being seen as dirty warts that run

Eldar (00:40:53):

counter American national interest.

Eldar (00:40:56):

There is a repudiation of neoconservative mindsets going on within the Republican

Eldar (00:41:04):

Party,

Eldar (00:41:06):

which actually advocated for America as a global policeman.

Eldar (00:41:12):

So this is now being reconsidered in the United States.

Eldar (00:41:17):

So for European elites,

Eldar (00:41:20):

being detached from American leadership and from American hegemony would mean that

Eldar (00:41:28):

they would have to find their own way of conducting business and relations with

Eldar (00:41:35):

other countries in a new,

Eldar (00:41:37):

more multipolar world.

Eldar (00:41:40):

That means they will have to establish their own policy with China, with Russia.

Eldar (00:41:48):

They will not be able simply follow the American lead as, so to say, a wise hegemon.

Eldar (00:42:01):

So I think that's what really scares the European elites because they have been

Eldar (00:42:07):

accustomed to that role.

Eldar (00:42:11):

within NATO.

Eldar (00:42:13):

And now it is changing.

Eldar (00:42:16):

And that's upsetting.

Eldar (00:42:17):

And therefore,

Eldar (00:42:18):

they're doing everything they can to slow down the process to keep the United

Eldar (00:42:23):

States involved in Europe.

Eldar (00:42:26):

But eventually, I think they're going to be unsuccessful on that.

Asbed (00:42:30):

Well, when it comes to this multipolarity,

Asbed (00:42:31):

I want to ask you one question about the future or rather the identity of the EU in

Asbed (00:42:39):

geopolitics.

Asbed (00:42:40):

It has the population and the GDP of a superpower,

Asbed (00:42:43):

but it doesn't have the cohesion,

Asbed (00:42:45):

the military,

Asbed (00:42:46):

political and diplomatic cohesion of the United States.

Asbed (00:42:50):

Is Europe...

Asbed (00:42:52):

Or rather, let's say the EU actually interested in becoming a superpower,

Asbed (00:42:56):

a pole in the multipolar world?

Asbed (00:42:58):

And can it act as an independent geopolitical force in the medium or maybe even the long term?

Eldar (00:43:05):

I think the key question is what kind of power European Union wants to become.

Eldar (00:43:11):

There is a lot of talk about geopolitical Europe,

Eldar (00:43:14):

and that's what the leadership of the European Union wants to see in place.

Eldar (00:43:20):

That's in the official documents of the European Commission that Europe has to

Eldar (00:43:25):

become a geopolitical player.

Eldar (00:43:28):

But the question is, what kind of geopolitical player?

Eldar (00:43:30):

Europe, when we're talking about Europe is one thing.

Eldar (00:43:34):

European Union is a different thing.

Eldar (00:43:36):

We have 27 countries in the European Union.

Eldar (00:43:39):

And it's self-evident that countries in the south of Europe have a different...

Eldar (00:43:46):

strategic outlook than the Baltic states and Nordic states.

Eldar (00:43:50):

They simply do not see Russia with the same sense of urgency as the Baltic states

Eldar (00:43:57):

and the Nordics.

Eldar (00:44:00):

And then you have also countries in the Central Europe,

Eldar (00:44:02):

such as Hungary,

Eldar (00:44:04):

Slovakia,

Eldar (00:44:05):

now Czech Republic after the last elections.

Eldar (00:44:08):

who also have their own views,

Eldar (00:44:11):

their own historical experience,

Eldar (00:44:16):

and their own strategic outlook,

Eldar (00:44:19):

which is different from the Baltic states and Nordic states,

Eldar (00:44:24):

who are the ones who are pushing the most for the hard line on Russia.

Eldar (00:44:28):

Again, for understandable reasons, but they do not...

Eldar (00:44:32):

speak for the whole of Europe.

Eldar (00:44:35):

So in that sense,

Eldar (00:44:39):

I personally am very skeptical about the prospects of forging a unified European

Eldar (00:44:47):

strategic outlook beyond,

Eldar (00:44:49):

let's say,

Eldar (00:44:50):

some very minimalistic common denominator.

Eldar (00:44:55):

What Europe could do, where Europe

Eldar (00:44:58):

has its strong cards and its assets that it could leverage is its economic strengths.

Eldar (00:45:09):

And what they used to do in the past was to be a diplomatic superpower.

Eldar (00:45:18):

Europe was the place where negotiations took place between rival blocs,

Eldar (00:45:23):

United States,

Eldar (00:45:25):

Soviet Union,

Eldar (00:45:27):

But lately, Europe has lost its role because it has become so belligerent.

Eldar (00:45:36):

And now we see that the center of diplomatic activity,

Eldar (00:45:40):

the center of mediation,

Eldar (00:45:43):

is constantly moving outside European continent to Middle East,

Eldar (00:45:48):

to Istanbul,

Eldar (00:45:50):

Doha,

Eldar (00:45:51):

So it's changing.

Eldar (00:45:54):

But I think this is the role, the mediator, the convener, the facilitator.

Eldar (00:46:01):

This is the role which the European Union should have played,

Eldar (00:46:06):

but it voluntarily gave up that role.

Asbed (00:46:10):

That's very interesting because at a time when the EU is kind of ramping up

Asbed (00:46:16):

military spending and trying to have a more powerful presence on the global stage,

Asbed (00:46:23):

you're alluding to a geopolitical or a political identity crisis,

Asbed (00:46:28):

essentially.

Asbed (00:46:29):

And I fear that that's going to be a neurotic presence with a very powerful military

Asbed (00:46:36):

that's not going to do a lot of good for small states.

Asbed (00:46:39):

I mean, if you ask me, in my opinion, they did not advise Armenia very wisely.

Asbed (00:46:45):

They put their own interests in front of Armenia's interests.

Asbed (00:46:48):

And well, we see where we are today.

Asbed (00:46:51):

We've had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh and

Asbed (00:46:56):

I put that, for example,

Asbed (00:46:57):

I cannot forget the words of Charles Michel,

Asbed (00:46:59):

who wanted Armenia to so-called "lower the bar" on Artsakh's independence.

Asbed (00:47:05):

And we see where we are.

Eldar (00:47:07):

No, absolutely.

Eldar (00:47:08):

As someone who spent a lot of time working within the European Union and within

Eldar (00:47:16):

those institutions,

Eldar (00:47:19):

I can tell you that especially after the war in Ukraine,

Eldar (00:47:25):

The whole obsession has become about diminishing Russian influence everywhere.

Eldar (00:47:35):

wherever possible, kicking the Russians out, to put it in a more conversational, informal way.

Eldar (00:47:41):

But that was the line in the European Union and in the Western ministries.

Eldar (00:47:48):

And that, by the way, also included the South Caucasus.

Eldar (00:47:51):

But what does it mean, kicking Russia out of South Caucasus?

Eldar (00:47:54):

It may sound reasonable from Swedish or Baltic perspective, but...

Eldar (00:48:00):

not from the Armenian because we're talking about very specific situation.

Eldar (00:48:05):

We're talking about history and geopolitical and geographic situation where simply

Eldar (00:48:13):

there was no other choice for Armenia than to have close relationship with Russia

Eldar (00:48:23):

for the reasons that are obvious if you look at the map.

Eldar (00:48:27):

And yet somehow

Eldar (00:48:30):

That consideration has been considerably or consistently downplayed because the

Eldar (00:48:38):

overall strategy,

Eldar (00:48:39):

the overall priority has always been to get Russia out of the region.

Eldar (00:48:47):

Now what we have,

Eldar (00:48:49):

now this exaggerated enthusiasm in Europe about the so-called peace process between

Eldar (00:48:56):

Armenia and Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:49:00):

But it's not about peace itself from European point of view.

Eldar (00:49:05):

It's all about reducing Russian presence and Russian influence.

Eldar (00:49:10):

So I would caution against seeing European policy towards Armenia as some kind of

Eldar (00:49:18):

philanthropic or values-based act.

Eldar (00:49:22):

It's anything but.

Eldar (00:49:24):

it's just a strategy to use Armenia as a foothold as a battlefield for geopolitical

Eldar (00:49:35):

fight against Russia and to some extent Iran as well given the poor state of

Eldar (00:49:39):

relations between Europe and Iran that's how i see this yeah so given this um

Hovik (00:49:48):

And,

Hovik (00:49:49):

you know,

Hovik (00:49:50):

you also talked about your skepticism about the European essentially identity,

Hovik (00:49:59):

you know,

Hovik (00:50:00):

working in a unison.

Hovik (00:50:02):

Despite all of that, Armenia is trying to chart a new course towards Europe.

Hovik (00:50:07):

at this moment in time,

Hovik (00:50:09):

and Yerevan speaks about Europe as a strategic anchor,

Hovik (00:50:14):

yet, as we've discussed,

Hovik (00:50:16):

EU sends mixed signals on security,

Hovik (00:50:18):

enlargement,

Hovik (00:50:19):

and its role in the wider region,

Hovik (00:50:21):

or at least some analysts see discrepancies.

Hovik (00:50:26):

So,

Hovik (00:50:27):

how can Armenia pursue a European path when Europe's own geopolitical identity

Hovik (00:50:32):

remains undefined?

Eldar (00:50:35):

That's a good question.

Eldar (00:50:36):

And honestly, I don't have an answer to that.

Eldar (00:50:38):

And obviously,

Eldar (00:50:39):

that's for Armenian people and for Armenian leadership to decide what sort of

Eldar (00:50:45):

relationship they want to have with Europe.

Eldar (00:50:48):

But given what we're seeing now, what you alluded to also, I do not see much that

Eldar (00:51:04):

Armenia at this point.

Eldar (00:51:06):

Uh, membership ultimately,

Eldar (00:51:08):

uh,

Eldar (00:51:09):

would be the big price membership in the European union,

Eldar (00:51:12):

but...

Eldar (00:51:14):

I do not realistically see it coming for the next decades probably.

Eldar (00:51:20):

Membership is a very complex process with a lot of requirements and with a lot of

Eldar (00:51:29):

possibilities for every single 27 member states to slow down the process and not to

Eldar (00:51:36):

block it.

Eldar (00:51:37):

And the mood in Europe in the EU definitely is not right now in favor for

Eldar (00:51:44):

enlargement of any sort.

Eldar (00:51:46):

So I am very skeptical about the long-term prospects for that.

Hovik (00:51:54):

However,

Eldar (00:51:55):

the danger here is that in the process of preparing to join the European Union,

Eldar (00:52:02):

given the fact that European Union has transitioned from seeing itself as a

Eldar (00:52:08):

values-based union to geopolitical union,

Eldar (00:52:13):

So in the process of adjusting to geopolitical EU,

Eldar (00:52:18):

there is a danger and a threat to Armenia of spoiling relations with traditional

Eldar (00:52:25):

partners such as Russia and Iran just because it would aim at becoming a member of

Eldar (00:52:37):

the EU.

Eldar (00:52:38):

So in the worst case scenario, you can find yourselves in this situation when

Eldar (00:52:42):

You have not become a member of the European Union with all the benefits and

Eldar (00:52:48):

advantages that would bring.

Eldar (00:52:53):

But in the process of trying to become one, you also spoil relations with...

Eldar (00:53:04):

other players, traditional partners, Russia and Iran in the process.

Eldar (00:53:08):

So that I think is a dangerous situation.

Hovik (00:53:13):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:53:14):

And if I may be so bold as to say that all of the signs that we have seen,

Hovik (00:53:20):

you know, we have we talked about Azerbaijan playing a stronger role in the region through

Hovik (00:53:27):

its partnership with Turkey as well.

Hovik (00:53:29):

And inside the EU,

Hovik (00:53:31):

of course, Azerbaijan has also strong partners,

Hovik (00:53:34):

namely Hungary,

Hovik (00:53:35):

who has already vetoed even minor things like 10 million dollar

Hovik (00:53:41):

grant for a tent hospital so Europe... Europe talks about supporting Armenia yet

Hovik (00:53:48):

refuses at all to confront Azerbaijan's coercion and in fact Europe fetes

Hovik (00:53:53):

Azerbaijan as a reliable partner and so on and so forth um i mean is this

Hovik (00:54:02):

Could this change,

Hovik (00:54:04):

or is this what you predict more to happen in the future,

Hovik (00:54:08):

this type of a policy?

Eldar (00:54:09):

This will not change.

Eldar (00:54:10):

In fact, if it will change, it will change for the worse.

Eldar (00:54:15):

Just as we speak,

Eldar (00:54:17):

for example,

Eldar (00:54:18):

just before we started our program,

Eldar (00:54:22):

I read news that the leader of the major opposition party in Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:54:27):

Ali Karimli,

Eldar (00:54:29):

has been detained by the police.

Eldar (00:54:33):

And previously,

Eldar (00:54:34):

even a few years ago,

Eldar (00:54:38):

European embassies,

Eldar (00:54:40):

European institutions in Brussels,

Eldar (00:54:43):

they would have been all up in arms with statements of concern,

Eldar (00:54:48):

with calls on the government to release him,

Eldar (00:54:50):

or at least to safeguard his rights and all that.

Eldar (00:54:54):

Now, nothing of that is happening.

Eldar (00:54:56):

Why is that?

Eldar (00:54:58):

It's because,

Eldar (00:55:00):

especially after the war in Ukraine,

Eldar (00:55:05):

and with this shift that I mentioned to geopolitical Europe,

Eldar (00:55:11):

European Union sees Azerbaijan as a valuable partner.

Eldar (00:55:16):

And not only because of gas and oil,

Eldar (00:55:19):

there is not that much gas,

Eldar (00:55:21):

but mostly because all of these...

Eldar (00:55:25):

you know,

Eldar (00:55:26):

geopolitical corridors,

Eldar (00:55:29):

middle corridor,

Eldar (00:55:31):

because of this,

Eldar (00:55:33):

you know,

Eldar (00:55:35):

ideas of bypassing Russia through Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

Eldar (00:55:45):

So there is this element there.

Eldar (00:55:49):

And that, right now, it strongly overshadows any other considerations.

Eldar (00:55:58):

So I do not see any potential for more critical attitude from European institutions

Eldar (00:56:11):

toward Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:56:12):

rather the opposite.

Eldar (00:56:14):

Of course, if the war in Ukraine ends and somehow there is

Eldar (00:56:19):

some reconciliation,

Eldar (00:56:20):

some reestablishment of working relationship between the EU and Russia,

Eldar (00:56:26):

then Azerbaijan's geopolitical value and importance will go down.

Eldar (00:56:32):

But there is very little prospect that relations between the EU and Russia will go

Eldar (00:56:39):

back to relatively normal,

Eldar (00:56:41):

even supposing the war ends one day.

Hovik (00:56:46):

All right. Well, I just have one more last question for you, Mr. Mamedov.

Hovik (00:56:51):

Given all the things we discussed about our region,

Hovik (00:56:54):

what will be the single most important variable shaping the region in the coming

Hovik (00:56:59):

year, in your opinion?

Hovik (00:57:00):

Is it the war in Ukraine, Iran?

Hovik (00:57:03):

Maybe there are too many choices...

Asbed (00:57:06):

...Or Venezuela...

Hovik (00:57:07):

Or Venezuela.

Eldar (00:57:10):

That's a multiple choice question.

Eldar (00:57:13):

I think the way war in Ukraine evolves,

Eldar (00:57:20):

that could play a considerable role on the situation in the Caucasus in the sense

Eldar (00:57:28):

that if the war ends,

Eldar (00:57:33):

that would mean that it can only end on

Eldar (00:57:39):

conditions that are favorable to Russia whether we like it or not but Russia is in

Eldar (00:57:45):

the lead in the driver's seat on the battlefield and it can only end with Russia

Eldar (00:57:56):

fulfilling its objectives if not all then at least the most important ones that's

Eldar (00:58:02):

not an advocacy that doesn't necessarily mean that this is what I wish but that's

Eldar (00:58:07):

just my assessment of the reality

Eldar (00:58:09):

In that case,

Eldar (00:58:12):

Russia indeed could look back at the Caucasus and there were some problems in

Eldar (00:58:23):

relations between Baku and Moscow.

Eldar (00:58:26):

Lately,

Eldar (00:58:27):

and those problems,

Eldar (00:58:28):

in my opinion,

Eldar (00:58:29):

they are irreversible because Baku does not see itself anymore as a sort of

Eldar (00:58:36):

subordinate to Moscow.

Eldar (00:58:38):

And we spoke about it earlier about its ambitions to

Eldar (00:58:42):

become middle power.

Eldar (00:58:45):

So it will seek a relationship with Moscow on a more equal footing and not shy away

Eldar (00:58:51):

from challenging Moscow when it feels so.

Eldar (00:58:54):

And of course, that's not something that I think Russia is going to accept in the long term.

Eldar (00:59:01):

Simply speaking, when Russia has more leeway and more bandwidth, it can also

Eldar (00:59:08):

Then let's look again to the Caucasus and then given those structural reasons why

Eldar (00:59:17):

relations between Russia and Azerbaijan will be very complicated in the future,

Eldar (00:59:21):

I think there's certain chance for Armenia to play on those contradictions.

Eldar (00:59:27):

And a different question, of course, is whether the Armenian leadership sees it that way.

Eldar (00:59:32):

And for now, it doesn't seem to me to be the case.

Eldar (00:59:39):

But we will see.

Eldar (00:59:40):

We know that there have been a lot of twists and turns in the South Caucasus in the

Eldar (00:59:47):

past, so it can happen again in the future.

Hovik (00:59:51):

It's an exciting, yeah, exciting in quotes.

Hovik (00:59:56):

Mr. Mamedov, I thoroughly enjoyed our discussion.

Hovik (00:59:59):

I want to thank you again for having your first appearance on our show,

Hovik (01:00:04):

and I hope it's not the last.

Hovik (01:00:05):

Please,

Hovik (01:00:06):

let's have a repeat appearance,

Hovik (01:00:09):

and I'm sure that our viewers will also thank you for coming on our show.

Asbed (01:00:13):

And thank you for me as well.

Eldar (01:00:16):

Thank you so much. I thoroughly enjoyed the conversation as well, and all the best to you.

Asbed (01:00:19):

Talk to you soon.

Hovik (01:00:20):

Thank you.

Asbed (01:00:21):

Bye-bye.

Eldar (01:00:22):

Bye-bye.

Asbed (01:00:23):

Great guest, great analysis.

Asbed (01:00:25):

I really enjoyed that show.

Asbed (01:00:27):

Recorded on November 29, 2025.

Asbed (01:00:31):

Hovik, you're back in front of your bookcase.

Asbed (01:00:37):

That one book was not there before.

Asbed (01:00:39):

What is that?

Hovik (01:00:40):

I reclaimed my spot from my son, so that's good.

Hovik (01:00:43):

But yes, that's a good, actually, book.

Hovik (01:00:46):

I want to...

Hovik (01:00:51):

I've been meaning to talk about it.

Hovik (01:00:52):

It's George Bournoutian's Russia and the Armenians of Transcaucasia from 1797 to 1889.

Hovik (01:01:00):

It was given as a gift to me when I was in the U.S.

Hovik (01:01:06):

by one of our viewers and listeners, Haroutyun.

Hovik (01:01:09):

I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for this gift.

Hovik (01:01:12):

And the condition, the condition,

Hovik (01:01:16):

The condition that I accepted was that I would read it fully and try to read quotes

Hovik (01:01:23):

and try to make parallels with today's events.

Hovik (01:01:28):

It is very interesting.

Hovik (01:01:29):

You mean some of the stuff we talked with Mr. Mamedov right now?

Hovik (01:01:34):

not just mr it's about armenia and Russia essentially our relations between

Hovik (01:01:39):

Armenians uh uh as a nation and Russia so it has like uh letters essentially it's a

Hovik (01:01:45):

catalog of letters and communication between uh the Russian...

Hovik (01:01:53):

you know,

Hovik (01:01:54):

Tsardom and the Armenians,

Hovik (01:01:56):

different maybe clergy,

Hovik (01:01:58):

different leaders,

Hovik (01:02:00):

Armenian leaders.

Hovik (01:02:02):

So when I lived through it and there are some very interesting passages,

Hovik (01:02:07):

you know,

Hovik (01:02:09):

very reminiscent to what's happening today.

Hovik (01:02:13):

So I will begin reading this and hopefully if I find something that is relevant to

Hovik (01:02:22):

one of our shows,

Hovik (01:02:23):

I might pop up and quote some quotes from here.

Hovik (01:02:28):

All right.

Hovik (01:02:29):

Haroutyun, thank you very much for this book.

Hovik (01:02:32):

Haroutyun has been showering me with books.

Hovik (01:02:34):

I don't know how I'm going to, you know, if I take the book, then I have to read it.

Asbed (01:02:40):

He's a deep well of knowledge, that guy.

Asbed (01:02:42):

Yes.

Asbed (01:02:43):

Seriously. I mean,

Asbed (01:02:44):

every time we talk to him,

Asbed (01:02:45):

it's just like,

Asbed (01:02:46):

oh,

Asbed (01:02:47):

that's just way too much information for my brain to absorb.

Asbed (01:02:52):

Okay, folks,

Asbed (01:02:53):

our guest today was Mr.

Asbed (01:02:55):

Eldar Mamedov,

Asbed (01:02:56):

who is a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute and a member of the Pugwash

Asbed (01:03:00):

Council on Science and World Affairs.

Asbed (01:03:03):

Mr. Mamedov is a diplomat who has worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia

Asbed (01:03:07):

and in Latvian embassies at Washington,

Asbed (01:03:09):

D.C.

Asbed (01:03:10):

and Madrid.

Asbed (01:03:11):

He has served as a political advisor for the Social Democrats in the Foreign

Asbed (01:03:15):

Affairs Committee of the European Parliament and was in charge of the European

Asbed (01:03:19):

Parliament delegations for inter-parliamentary relations with Iran,

Asbed (01:03:25):

Iraq,

Asbed (01:03:26):

the Arabian Peninsula.

Asbed (01:03:28):

There's a lot of information.

Asbed (01:03:29):

We urge you to go to our podcast notes, podcasts.groong.org/episode-number.

Asbed (01:03:38):

And we will put all the links.

Asbed (01:03:40):

We'll put even the links for the Pugwash Council and other things that we mentioned.

Asbed (01:03:45):

For example, the article that our guests wrote for Le Monde Diplomatique, all in the show notes.

Hovik (01:03:53):

All right well i uh want to thank you again for staying so long and just in case

Hovik (01:03:58):

there are a few people still uh watching us, or listening to us, I want to repeat our

Hovik (01:04:03):

call to action uh please make sure you're SUBSCRIBED to our channel, please

Hovik (01:04:08):

consider LIKING, COMMENTING, and SHARING as that helps boost us and especially if you

Hovik (01:04:13):

think we're doing a good job and... you don't have to do it if you don't think

Hovik (01:04:18):

we're doing a good job, let's just prove that.

Hovik (01:04:20):

And of course, donations are always welcome.

Hovik (01:04:24):

Podcasts.groong.org/donate.

Asbed (01:04:27):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:04:30):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in Yerevan.

Asbed (01:04:32):

Talk to you soon.

Hovik (01:04:34):

Have a great day.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Eldar Mamedov

Guest

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