Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Benyamin Poghosyan - Pashinyan War on Armenian Church, EU-Armenia, Artsakh, Arar Poll | Ep 494, Dec 7, 2025

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Groong Week in Review - December 7, 2025

Topics

  • 1988 Earthquake Remembered
  • Pashinyan’s War on the Armenian Church
  • EU-Armenia Relations
  • Nagorno-Karabakh Negotiation Documents
  • ARAR Foundation Poll


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Hosts


Episode 494 | Recorded: December 8, 2025

https://podcasts.groong.org/494


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Asbed (00:00:06):

Hello everyone, and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for

Asbed (00:00:11):

December 7, 2025.

Asbed (00:00:12):

Today, we are happy to have with us one of our most frequent guests,

Asbed (00:00:15):

Benyamin Poghosyan,

Asbed (00:00:17):

who is a senior fellow at APRI Armenia,

Asbed (00:00:21):

a Yerevan-based think tank.

Asbed (00:00:23):

Hello, Benyamin.

Asbed (00:00:24):

Welcome to the Groong Podcast.

Benyamin (00:00:26):

Hello, Asbed.

Benyamin (00:00:27):

Hello, Hovik.

Benyamin (00:00:28):

As always, pleasure to be with you.

Benyamin (00:00:31):

Welcome, Benyamin Can.

Hovik (00:00:33):

And I want to begin actually by a point of remembrance.

Hovik (00:00:37):

Last week was December 7,

Hovik (00:00:39):

the 37th anniversary of the tragic earthquake in 1988,

Hovik (00:00:43):

claiming so many lives.

Hovik (00:00:44):

We talked about this last year,

Hovik (00:00:46):

but I think it's a somber occasion that is worth recalling because I think the

Hovik (00:00:52):

consequences of that earthquake may have had a huge impact on Armenia and

Hovik (00:01:00):

the effects of it still have not been,

Hovik (00:01:02):

you know,

Hovik (00:01:03):

restored or it has taken a long time for Gyumri to rise up.

Hovik (00:01:07):

Anything you want to say on this occasion, Benyamin, before I move on?

Benyamin (00:01:12):

Okay, I was like a child,

Benyamin (00:01:13):

but still I remember the shock and I remember the shock of parents and everyone.

Benyamin (00:01:17):

It was really terrible and it became more terrible because immediately after that,

Benyamin (00:01:21):

we have collapsed of Soviet Union.

Benyamin (00:01:23):

energy crisis,

Benyamin (00:01:24):

the war with Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:01:25):

so this was very,

Benyamin (00:01:26):

very tough,

Benyamin (00:01:27):

but interestingly,

Benyamin (00:01:29):

despite all of these very complicated and complex times,

Benyamin (00:01:33):

Armenia was able to win the war against Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:01:36):

against many odds,

Benyamin (00:01:37):

by the way,

Benyamin (00:01:38):

because it seems that Armenia has zero chances to win the war against Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:01:41):

especially with 30% of republicans in ruins,

Benyamin (00:01:44):

with tens of thousands of people killed,

Benyamin (00:01:47):

But at that time, our society was able to unite and to win the war.

Benyamin (00:01:51):

So maybe this is not only the history or tragedy,

Benyamin (00:01:56):

but maybe this should be some sort of,

Benyamin (00:01:58):

I'm not sure to say,

Benyamin (00:01:59):

inspiration or whatever,

Benyamin (00:02:00):

that even in a very complex,

Benyamin (00:02:02):

complicated and tragic times,

Benyamin (00:02:04):

our nation, Armenians,

Benyamin (00:02:05):

were able to win,

Benyamin (00:02:07):

to make victories.

Benyamin (00:02:08):

So I think we should look also,

Benyamin (00:02:10):

yes, of course,

Benyamin (00:02:11):

we should remember the victims,

Benyamin (00:02:12):

but also we should

Benyamin (00:02:13):

Remember this as a proof that even in a very difficult,

Benyamin (00:02:17):

complex time, when perception is that there is a zero chance of victory or good end,

Benyamin (00:02:24):

Armenians were able to win.

Hovik (00:02:27):

Good point on perseverance, and I thank you for making it.

Hovik (00:02:32):

So let's move to the reality of today.

Hovik (00:02:37):

And last week, the list of imprisoned clergy in Armenia grew by one more archbishop.

Hovik (00:02:45):

Archbishop Arshak Khachatryan was arrested and it's an obvious escalation in the

Hovik (00:02:55):

church versus state fight that is currently happening.

Hovik (00:02:58):

First, the regime-linked actors leaked an alleged AI video,

Hovik (00:03:02):

we all talked about this,

Hovik (00:03:04):

to humiliate him and he has firmly denied it.

Hovik (00:03:07):

Anyone who is alleged to be in that video has firmly denied being part of it.

Hovik (00:03:11):

And when that failed, the state shifted to harsher methods.

Hovik (00:03:14):

The investigative committee summoned him under the pretext of helping solve who

Hovik (00:03:20):

leaked that video.

Hovik (00:03:22):

And as he left the building,

Hovik (00:03:24):

the NSS arrested him last week and charged him with narcotics distribution.

Hovik (00:03:30):

It's even funny for me to read this, but the case itself

Hovik (00:03:35):

is very comical because it dates back to 2018 when members of this sect,

Hovik (00:03:40):

which was called New Armenian New Catholicos,

Hovik (00:03:43):

broke into Etchmiadzin.

Hovik (00:03:44):

That was a time of Pashinyan's regime change in Armenia.

Hovik (00:03:47):

So there was a big euphoria and this group wanted to also cause a revolution in the church.

Hovik (00:03:55):

So they had broken into Etchmiadzin

Hovik (00:03:58):

And there's an allegation that Archbishop Arshak told a clergyman to plant drugs in

Hovik (00:04:03):

a trespasser's backpack.

Hovik (00:04:05):

Now,

Hovik (00:04:06):

this is all allegations which is being denied,

Hovik (00:04:09):

but even if that were true,

Hovik (00:04:12):

to me, planting drugs,

Hovik (00:04:15):

however abhorrent that is,

Hovik (00:04:17):

is not distribution.

Hovik (00:04:19):

And that, I mean, is also echoed by the Archbishop's legal team.

Hovik (00:04:24):

Yet distribution conveniently carries a long sentence and has a long statute of

Hovik (00:04:28):

limitations which may explain why the NSS chose this particular article in the

Hovik (00:04:36):

criminal code and conveniently it also makes it more difficult for him to get out

Hovik (00:04:42):

of pretrial detention.

Hovik (00:04:43):

now one more twist to this story which is that the nss basically claims that it was

Hovik (00:04:52):

merely expediting old cases and not targeting him but few believe that so one last

Hovik (00:04:59):

twist to this story is that the case landed with none other than Masis Melkonyan a

Hovik (00:05:04):

judge who often receives the regime's political files and he immediately ordered

Hovik (00:05:09):

the two months uh pretrial detention so

Hovik (00:05:14):

To begin with,

Hovik (00:05:15):

Benjamin, I want to ask you,

Hovik (00:05:16):

if assignment of criminal cases to courthouses is in random,

Hovik (00:05:22):

how do so many political cases or sensitive cases end up with the same judge?

Benyamin (00:05:27):

A very good question.

Benyamin (00:05:28):

I think the only reasonable explanation is that not all,

Benyamin (00:05:32):

not assignment of all cases are being done randomly.

Benyamin (00:05:36):

I think this is the only logical explanation, which I may assume.

Benyamin (00:05:39):

I'm not,

Benyamin (00:05:40):

I don't know about the details,

Benyamin (00:05:41):

how this mechanism works,

Benyamin (00:05:43):

but it looks,

Benyamin (00:05:44):

let's put it suspicious.

Benyamin (00:05:47):

It looks suspicious that some cases and I,

Benyamin (00:05:50):

Remember that even before the case landed to that particular judge,

Benyamin (00:05:53):

the lawyer of Archbishop said that I'm 99% sure that case will be landed to this

Benyamin (00:05:58):

judge.

Benyamin (00:05:59):

So the only logical explanation is that not all cases are being done through this

Benyamin (00:06:03):

automatic system of assignment,

Benyamin (00:06:06):

whatever system is it.

Benyamin (00:06:07):

But if we speak broadly about this fight against the church, I think of course the

Benyamin (00:06:15):

arrest of another bishop is part of this fight,

Benyamin (00:06:18):

whatever the legal foundation are,

Benyamin (00:06:20):

and they are absolutely not true,

Benyamin (00:06:22):

they are partly true or whatever,

Benyamin (00:06:24):

but if you look into,

Benyamin (00:06:25):

like, zoom out from this particular case and from this particular legal accusations and

Benyamin (00:06:29):

trying to understand,

Benyamin (00:06:30):

like,

Benyamin (00:06:31):

as a strategy behind the actions,

Benyamin (00:06:34):

you see that ultimately,

Benyamin (00:06:36):

and I think the Prime Minister repeated it several times in the last week,

Benyamin (00:06:40):

that his ultimate goal is to force a resignation of Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:06:45):

So my understanding is that all these are part of these efforts to forge the

Benyamin (00:06:49):

resignation of Catholicos and maybe also somehow to prevent this council of bishops

Benyamin (00:06:55):

because I believe council of bishops was supposed to take place

Benyamin (00:06:59):

December 10, December 12.

Benyamin (00:07:01):

My understanding is that it was postponed,

Benyamin (00:07:04):

and probably this was postponed also because I believe that there are no guarantees

Benyamin (00:07:10):

or no chances that these arrested archbishops or bishops will be able to take part

Benyamin (00:07:15):

in this council of bishops.

Benyamin (00:07:17):

So I think this latest arrest has two, and as far as I understand,

Benyamin (00:07:24):

the bishop Arshak has quite close relations with Catholicos.

Benyamin (00:07:28):

So probably this was another step to put pressure on Catholicos and Catholicos

Benyamin (00:07:32):

brother is in jail.

Benyamin (00:07:34):

And I think his arrest and his son rests were also like extended for one or two months.

Benyamin (00:07:40):

So all this.

Asbed (00:07:40):

Well, I believe Arshak is the chief of the secretariat of the Catholicos, right?

Asbed (00:07:45):

He's sort of the right hand man.

Benyamin (00:07:48):

Yeah, the right-hand men.

Asbed (00:07:49):

And so many of the archbishops are jailed.

Asbed (00:07:51):

You couldn't even have a real quorum if you had the council of bishops.

Hovik (00:07:56):

And I heard that the council of bishops would also include bishops who are not in

Hovik (00:08:02):

Armenia right now.

Hovik (00:08:03):

And there was fear,

Hovik (00:08:05):

and I remember reading about it,

Hovik (00:08:06):

that even they would be arrested if they said put in Armenia,

Hovik (00:08:10):

or maybe they would be prevented from coming to Armenia.

Hovik (00:08:12):

So, I mean, isn't this interference in the activities of the church?

Hovik (00:08:17):

I mean, when the council of bishops cannot take place in this state of fear and apprehension.

Benyamin (00:08:25):

Yes, definitely.

Benyamin (00:08:26):

But again,

Benyamin (00:08:27):

strategically,

Benyamin (00:08:28):

I think another worrisome sign is that we see that I think 10 bishops,

Benyamin (00:08:33):

if I'm not mistaken,

Benyamin (00:08:35):

10, at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:08:36):

they signed an open letter calling resignation of Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:08:40):

somehow joining the demand of Prime Minister and somehow voicing their concerns

Benyamin (00:08:46):

that even they...

Benyamin (00:08:47):

I think Putin doubts the election of Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:08:49):

telling that,

Benyamin (00:08:50):

okay, 1999 elections were not free and fair,

Benyamin (00:08:54):

if I may use this terminology for election of Catholicos.

Benyamin (00:08:58):

But the message was that,

Benyamin (00:08:59):

that elections were not fair,

Benyamin (00:09:01):

elections were not free,

Benyamin (00:09:03):

so better Catholicos to resign.

Benyamin (00:09:06):

and we should have a new Catholic cause.

Hovik (00:09:09):

And as far as I'm aware,

Hovik (00:09:11):

all of these 10,

Hovik (00:09:12):

or many of these 10,

Hovik (00:09:13):

actually voted for Catholicos Garegin II.

Hovik (00:09:15):

At least that's what the media claims.

Benyamin (00:09:18):

Yeah, I also read some media claims,

Benyamin (00:09:20):

but as far as I understand,

Benyamin (00:09:21):

the voting process itself is secret voting,

Benyamin (00:09:24):

but in any case,

Benyamin (00:09:25):

this is

Benyamin (00:09:26):

worrisome because at the end of the day and we see that now like prime minister and

Benyamin (00:09:31):

the ruling party establishment with these bishops are taking part in different

Benyamin (00:09:36):

liturgies with some changed texts and this is being criticized by other bishops who

Benyamin (00:09:42):

also up to 30 bishops i believe signed letters supporting Catholicos so it's a

Hovik (00:09:48):

schism they're creating a schism in the church

Benyamin (00:09:51):

I have a perception that if this struggle or these efforts to force the resignation

Benyamin (00:09:56):

of Catholicos are not going to bring results,

Benyamin (00:09:59):

which organizers hope for,

Benyamin (00:10:01):

then at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:10:02):

we may have like divided church because,

Benyamin (00:10:05):

okay, if some bishops,

Benyamin (00:10:06):

and I think it's not about number,

Benyamin (00:10:08):

like,

Benyamin (00:10:09):

okay, 10 bishops support Catholicos or vice versa,

Benyamin (00:10:11):

10 bishops are against Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:10:14):

30 bishops support Catholicos or vice versa.

Benyamin (00:10:18):

At the end of the day, we may have like,

Benyamin (00:10:20):

very complex and complicated situation when some bishops,

Benyamin (00:10:23):

and as far as I know,

Benyamin (00:10:24):

bishops also usually are ahead of the dioceses.

Benyamin (00:10:27):

So these bishops can somehow try to push forward their understanding in their

Benyamin (00:10:31):

dioceses and this de facto,

Benyamin (00:10:34):

maybe not de jure,

Benyamin (00:10:35):

but de facto may bring a division of church or establishment of like parallel

Benyamin (00:10:41):

church or something like that,

Benyamin (00:10:43):

which

Benyamin (00:10:44):

Of course, I'm not an expert on church history.

Benyamin (00:10:47):

I believe there were several times when like several competing Catholicoses were in

Benyamin (00:10:51):

the medieval times.

Benyamin (00:10:53):

I hope we'll not reach the point of having competing Catholicoses,

Benyamin (00:10:56):

but even dividing church is very complex and complicated.

Benyamin (00:10:59):

And I don't exclude that.

Benyamin (00:11:00):

Maybe the calculation is that when Catholicos or the people supporting Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:11:07):

they will see the real danger of

Benyamin (00:11:09):

actual division of the church,

Benyamin (00:11:10):

maybe they will believe that the resignation of Catholicos is less evil than actual

Benyamin (00:11:17):

division of church.

Benyamin (00:11:19):

I just speculate frankly,

Benyamin (00:11:20):

I don't know,

Benyamin (00:11:21):

but one of the end goals of this could be to put a stark choice in front of

Benyamin (00:11:27):

Catholicos or in front of church leadership who still supports Catholicos.

Benyamin (00:11:34):

Ultimately, there are two options.

Benyamin (00:11:35):

Either we are going to have divided church,

Benyamin (00:11:38):

and then maybe this division may jump into the outside world,

Benyamin (00:11:42):

outside Armenia, because I believe one of the bishops of the United States or Northern America,

Benyamin (00:11:47):

if I remember correctly,

Benyamin (00:11:48):

also is among the bishops who demand resignation.

Benyamin (00:11:51):

So at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:11:53):

we may have a division of church not only in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:11:55):

but inside Armenia,

Benyamin (00:11:57):

but outside Armenia.

Benyamin (00:11:58):

And again,

Benyamin (00:12:00):

This could be a very tough choice for Catholicos.

Benyamin (00:12:04):

Either you resign or at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:12:06):

your term will be remembered in the history as the term of the first big division

Benyamin (00:12:12):

of the Armenian Church.

Asbed (00:12:14):

Yeah, let's be clear, though, this is a political division.

Asbed (00:12:17):

This is not an ecumenical schism or anything like that in the church.

Asbed (00:12:21):

Yes, of course, this is not like 1054.

Asbed (00:12:24):

It's likely that, you know, it will not even go past civil contract.

Asbed (00:12:28):

At some point, these guys are going to go and the church will probably end up reuniting.

Hovik (00:12:33):

So we will cover this in more detail, but I do want to take us back to Archbishop Arshak, who...

Hovik (00:12:42):

I mentioned pretrial detention.

Hovik (00:12:44):

There are a lot of questions to ask about this case, and we'll try to cover that in the future.

Hovik (00:12:48):

But pretrial detention has been the favorite way for this government to jail

Hovik (00:12:58):

political opponents.

Hovik (00:12:59):

I think in terms of pretrial detention in all of Europe, Armenia is leading the numbers.

Hovik (00:13:05):

I think maybe it's number two after Andorra.

Hovik (00:13:09):

But it's meant to be a last resort administrative method.

Hovik (00:13:15):

There are other ways.

Hovik (00:13:16):

You could do house arrest.

Hovik (00:13:18):

You could put an ankle bracelet on someone.

Hovik (00:13:21):

What justification do authorities have?

Hovik (00:13:23):

Maybe you're not a criminal expert,

Hovik (00:13:25):

but do you see any justification or do you see any attempt to abuse this method of

Benyamin (00:13:34):

detaining someone for political gain?

Benyamin (00:13:37):

I think not only me, but even Ombudsman recently made a statement and even Minister of Justice,

Benyamin (00:13:41):

I guess even Minister of Justice a few days ago made a statement that she is

Benyamin (00:13:45):

concerned about like a rising number of pretrial detentions.

Benyamin (00:13:48):

And I think Ombudsman also made such a statement that pretrial detention is really

Benyamin (00:13:52):

the harshest like action and this should be taken only if there are no other means.

Benyamin (00:13:59):

And usually if I just read media,

Benyamin (00:14:00):

they are telling that,

Benyamin (00:14:01):

okay, pretrial detention is necessary because the person,

Benyamin (00:14:04):

if he remains in custody,

Benyamin (00:14:06):

no,

Benyamin (00:14:07):

he remains in freedom,

Benyamin (00:14:08):

sorry, he remains in freedom,

Benyamin (00:14:09):

he may somehow hinder the investigation.

Benyamin (00:14:12):

But I think this is like a very basic or standard formulation,

Benyamin (00:14:17):

like for anything you can say,

Benyamin (00:14:18):

okay,

Benyamin (00:14:19):

the guy may hinder,

Benyamin (00:14:20):

but yes,

Benyamin (00:14:21):

definitely we see that growing number of pretrial detention and this is source of

Benyamin (00:14:26):

concern. Like if even the Minister of Justice is telling us that this is source of concern,

Benyamin (00:14:32):

we may understand the situation because usually members of

Benyamin (00:14:36):

government, they are trying somehow to justify the situation.

Benyamin (00:14:40):

So this statement by Minister of Justice,

Benyamin (00:14:42):

if I remember the statement correctly,

Benyamin (00:14:44):

this is like another proof that the situation here is really not good,

Benyamin (00:14:49):

put it widely.

Hovik (00:14:51):

Okay,

Hovik (00:14:52):

let's go to Gyumri,

Hovik (00:14:53):

because yesterday was December 7,

Hovik (00:14:55):

and what was supposed to be a somber anniversary in the city of that event

Hovik (00:15:02):

became the arena for another stage show by Pashinyan in the second largest city.

Hovik (00:15:09):

So Pashinyan attended a divine liturgy at Gyumri's Seven Wounds Church.

Hovik (00:15:16):

Pashinyan had earlier said that he would only attend churches where the name of the

Hovik (00:15:19):

Catholicos is omitted from the liturgy.

Hovik (00:15:23):

Mentioning the Catholicos is a required part of the liturgy and refusing to do so

Hovik (00:15:28):

is seen as apostasy by our church.

Hovik (00:15:31):

So the head of the Shirak diocese is already in jail,

Hovik (00:15:35):

Archbishop Mikael,

Hovik (00:15:37):

and the clergy there say that the NSS contacted them and instructed them to drop

Hovik (00:15:44):

the Catholicos' name before Pashinyan's attendance.

Hovik (00:15:48):

In response, all Shirak clergy, I believe all the priests and bishops, they signed a statement

Hovik (00:15:58):

pledging loyalty to the Catholicos and closed the church to avoid the confrontation.

Hovik (00:16:05):

Pashinyan later confirmed that the NSS was involved and unapologetically defended

Hovik (00:16:11):

it with no local clergy willing to cooperate.

Hovik (00:16:14):

Outside clergy,

Hovik (00:16:16):

maybe I would say the rent-a-clergy,

Hovik (00:16:18):

were brought in and the church door seal was broken.

Hovik (00:16:23):

in order to hold a service that Pashinyan could attend.

Hovik (00:16:28):

And afterwards,

Hovik (00:16:29):

the Shirak Diocese and the Catholicosate condemned this as a violation of church

Hovik (00:16:35):

canon,

Hovik (00:16:36):

So let me put this very politically and mildly.

Hovik (00:16:41):

What the FRAC is the NSS doing talking to clergy and making demands about the

Hovik (00:16:46):

content of the divine liturgy?

Hovik (00:16:48):

Why is there no global outrage and condemnation of this deliberate attempt by the

Hovik (00:16:54):

head of state using force,

Hovik (00:16:57):

using the secret services to interfere with the activities of the church?

Asbed (00:17:01):

I believe in one of his statements,

Asbed (00:17:03):

he mentioned,

Asbed (00:17:04):

Pashinyan mentioned that the Catholicos is a threat to Armenian national security.

Benyamin (00:17:09):

Yeah, Pashinyan mentioned it.

Benyamin (00:17:11):

And I think even hinted that Catholicos is somehow cooperating with foreign

Benyamin (00:17:15):

intelligence agencies.

Benyamin (00:17:17):

There was some sort of hint, if I understand him correctly.

Hovik (00:17:20):

If he's a foreign agent, wouldn't they just arrest him if they had the proof of doing that?

Benyamin (00:17:26):

Probably yes,

Benyamin (00:17:27):

but you asked about like global outreach and global,

Benyamin (00:17:29):

I guess you mean also outside Armenia,

Benyamin (00:17:32):

if I understand correctly.

Benyamin (00:17:34):

Look, okay, mostly in this case,

Benyamin (00:17:36):

we wait or we hear concerns from the Western institutions,

Benyamin (00:17:40):

like institutions,

Benyamin (00:17:41):

countries,

Benyamin (00:17:42):

Because no one expects that,

Benyamin (00:17:43):

for example,

Benyamin (00:17:44):

India will voice concerns,

Benyamin (00:17:45):

because usually India does not voice concern,

Benyamin (00:17:46):

or China,

Benyamin (00:17:47):

or Brazil,

Benyamin (00:17:48):

or anyone from Global South,

Benyamin (00:17:50):

and Russia also.

Benyamin (00:17:52):

So regarding the West,

Benyamin (00:17:53):

my understanding is that there is a constant messaging to the West,

Benyamin (00:17:57):

to the European and American diplomats and experts and circles,

Benyamin (00:18:02):

that mostly Armenian Church,

Benyamin (00:18:04):

or I would say that leadership of Armenian Church,

Benyamin (00:18:07):

is a tool for Russia to

Benyamin (00:18:10):

intervene into the domestic political life of Armenia,

Benyamin (00:18:13):

especially ahead of elections,

Benyamin (00:18:15):

the leadership of Armenian Apostolic Church are one of the tools of Russian hybrid

Benyamin (00:18:19):

warfare against Armenian government.

Benyamin (00:18:22):

As far as I understand,

Benyamin (00:18:24):

when you're using these three words,

Benyamin (00:18:27):

Russian hybrid warfare,

Benyamin (00:18:29):

like all Europeans and probably many Americans,

Benyamin (00:18:32):

maybe not Trump administration,

Benyamin (00:18:33):

but many Americans,

Benyamin (00:18:34):

all Europeans,

Benyamin (00:18:37):

This is something like a red flag for balls or bulls or whatever.

Benyamin (00:18:42):

So if you say,

Benyamin (00:18:43):

okay, I did this to prevent Russian hybrid warfare or to fight against Russian hybrid

Benyamin (00:18:49):

warfare,

Benyamin (00:18:50):

you will be uploaded regardless of what you are doing.

Benyamin (00:18:52):

So this is like a magic word.

Benyamin (00:18:54):

If you want to get approval,

Benyamin (00:18:55):

upload,

Benyamin (00:18:57):

or at least neutral reaction from any action you are taking or for any action you

Benyamin (00:19:01):

are not taking,

Benyamin (00:19:03):

You need simply to use these three magic words, Russian hybrid warfare.

Benyamin (00:19:08):

Then everything is, everything is okay.

Benyamin (00:19:11):

Okay. You will get green light.

Benyamin (00:19:12):

Do whatever you want only to fight against Russian hybrid warfare.

Hovik (00:19:20):

What is, what is Russian hybrid warfare?

Benyamin (00:19:24):

Okay, good question.

Benyamin (00:19:25):

Frankly speaking, I'm not an expert on hybrid warfare,

Benyamin (00:19:28):

and this is a buzzword,

Benyamin (00:19:29):

and I'm not sure even that many people use this fully understand.

Benyamin (00:19:33):

I know that there is a special,

Benyamin (00:19:34):

like,

Benyamin (00:19:35):

professional literature on hybrid warfare,

Benyamin (00:19:37):

hybrid warfare threats,

Benyamin (00:19:38):

with volumes and volumes of books.

Benyamin (00:19:41):

And this is not only about Russia.

Benyamin (00:19:42):

I may assume that every great or even middle power using hybrid warfare tactics in

Benyamin (00:19:46):

21st century...

Benyamin (00:19:48):

So it's very difficult in this case to understand what people understand under

Benyamin (00:19:51):

Russian hybrid warfare.

Benyamin (00:19:52):

But the situation is,

Benyamin (00:19:56):

according to my understanding,

Benyamin (00:19:57):

that again,

Benyamin (00:19:58):

if someone from the West is telling,

Benyamin (00:19:59):

okay,

Benyamin (00:20:00):

why you did this,

Benyamin (00:20:01):

maybe this is not good,

Benyamin (00:20:02):

maybe this is not fully in line with,

Benyamin (00:20:04):

I don't know, rule of law or war,

Benyamin (00:20:06):

whatever, and you are telling,

Benyamin (00:20:08):

yes, I fully understand,

Benyamin (00:20:09):

but I did this to fight against Russian hybrid threats or to prevent Russian hybrid

Benyamin (00:20:15):

warfare.

Benyamin (00:20:16):

you somehow will get green light.

Benyamin (00:20:19):

And unfortunately,

Benyamin (00:20:21):

even if you look into the Western expert and also official statement,

Benyamin (00:20:26):

expert articles,

Benyamin (00:20:27):

assessment,

Benyamin (00:20:28):

official statement,

Benyamin (00:20:29):

many people just out clearly are stating or writing that elections in Armenia are

Benyamin (00:20:36):

another geopolitical battle between the good West and bad Russia.

Benyamin (00:20:40):

Like there is a good government who is pro-West,

Benyamin (00:20:43):

There is a bad opposition and bad church with pro-Russia.

Benyamin (00:20:46):

This is a geopolitical battle,

Benyamin (00:20:48):

so West should do everything to prevent pro-Russian opposition coming back to

Benyamin (00:20:54):

power.

Benyamin (00:20:55):

So if you depict,

Benyamin (00:20:56):

and I'm speaking about articles written about this,

Benyamin (00:20:59):

you can Google and you will find many very famous names in foreign or foreign

Benyamin (00:21:05):

experts who are covering South Caucasus for decades and who are clearly stating

Benyamin (00:21:11):

and writing that,

Benyamin (00:21:12):

okay,

Benyamin (00:21:13):

The elections, June 2026 elections in Armenia, they are geopolitical elections.

Benyamin (00:21:18):

It has nothing to do with Armenian people or Armenian domestic issues.

Benyamin (00:21:21):

This is another battlefield between Russia and the West,

Benyamin (00:21:24):

and West should do everything to achieve a victory or to prevent Russia's victory.

Benyamin (00:21:31):

And if you are telling that,

Benyamin (00:21:32):

okay, West should do everything to prevent Russia's victory,

Benyamin (00:21:35):

and then you depict directly or indirectly that anyone who opposes current

Benyamin (00:21:40):

government

Benyamin (00:21:42):

anyone who opposes current government from political forces and also church

Benyamin (00:21:45):

leadership,

Benyamin (00:21:46):

they are pro-Russians,

Benyamin (00:21:47):

or they are tools for Russian hybrid warfare,

Benyamin (00:21:50):

or they are direct or indirect Russian agents,

Benyamin (00:21:53):

then everything is very logical.

Benyamin (00:21:55):

Okay, if your key goal is to prevent Russia's victory,

Benyamin (00:21:57):

then you should support any action against pro-Russian forces.

Benyamin (00:22:02):

And if church leadership is perceived as a pro-Russian force,

Benyamin (00:22:05):

then you should support any actions against the church leadership.

Benyamin (00:22:09):

I think it's as simple as it is.

Hovik (00:22:11):

I mean, I guess when you have hybrid warfare, there needs to be evidence of that.

Hovik (00:22:16):

I mean, I just haven't seen...

Hovik (00:22:20):

any evidence, but by the same token,

Hovik (00:22:22):

you could say that the archbishop who signed that letter from the Western United

Hovik (00:22:29):

States,

Hovik (00:22:30):

that the head of the diocese may be under the influence of U.S.

Hovik (00:22:33):

national security forces.

Hovik (00:22:36):

And I mean, to me, that's just another reason why the church and state should be separate.

Hovik (00:22:42):

Are you aware of any publicly disclosed evidence that

Hovik (00:22:46):

Russian government is interfering using the church to interfere in Armenian affairs.

Benyamin (00:22:52):

I am not aware of but my understanding is that for many in the west they are not

Benyamin (00:22:57):

too much interested in like clear facts but they are interested in perceptions and

Benyamin (00:23:04):

especially the parallels between Moldova and parliamentary elections in I think

Benyamin (00:23:09):

these elections took place in September 2025 there is also clear parallel between

Benyamin (00:23:13):

Moldova and

Benyamin (00:23:14):

parliamentary elections and Armenian parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (00:23:17):

And you can just Google and you will see a lot of analytical articles about Russian

Benyamin (00:23:23):

hybrid warfare in Moldova.

Benyamin (00:23:25):

There are many experts also in Moldova who are arguing that Russia spent up to $300

Benyamin (00:23:32):

million to create pro-Russian parties,

Benyamin (00:23:34):

to fund pro-Russian parties,

Benyamin (00:23:36):

to bribe votes,

Benyamin (00:23:38):

etc. So from the Western perspective,

Benyamin (00:23:40):

perspective, the same narrative is happening in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:23:43):

Like in Moldova, there was good pro-Western government or president,

Benyamin (00:23:46):

Maya Sandu,

Benyamin (00:23:47):

and there were bad Russians,

Benyamin (00:23:49):

bad Russia and bad opposition supported by Russia.

Benyamin (00:23:52):

And Russia spent hundreds of millions of dollars

Benyamin (00:23:55):

And also in Moldova,

Benyamin (00:23:56):

again, according to the West and according to the pro-Western Moldovans,

Benyamin (00:23:59):

also Moldovan Orthodox Church was part of this anti-West campaign or pro-Russian

Benyamin (00:24:04):

campaign.

Benyamin (00:24:05):

So the West,

Benyamin (00:24:06):

or many in the West at least,

Benyamin (00:24:08):

I'm not in a position to argue at all,

Benyamin (00:24:09):

but many in the West,

Benyamin (00:24:11):

simply they say, okay, if in September 2025,

Benyamin (00:24:14):

Russia spent hundreds of millions of dollars to illegally support opposition so

Benyamin (00:24:19):

that they can come to power,

Benyamin (00:24:20):

kick out pro-Western Maya Sandu and bring Moldova back to the Eurasian Economic

Benyamin (00:24:24):

Union or again make Moldova the colony of Russia or whatever.

Benyamin (00:24:28):

and Moldovan Orthodox Church or part of Moldovan Orthodox Church was actively

Benyamin (00:24:31):

supporting pro-Russian forces,

Benyamin (00:24:33):

then most probably the same may happen or is happening in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:24:37):

The opposition supported by Russia and church leadership supported by Russia,

Benyamin (00:24:41):

they will do everything to kick out this more or less relatively pro-Western

Benyamin (00:24:46):

government in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:24:47):

They will try to prevent Armenia's deepening relations with the EU or whatever is

Benyamin (00:24:52):

it,

Benyamin (00:24:53):

even though they may stop this normalization process between Armenia and

Benyamin (00:24:56):

Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:24:57):

And this is also a narrative actively pushed forward by Azerbaijanis that, okay,

Benyamin (00:25:02):

If the current government loses in June 2026,

Benyamin (00:25:05):

it means the end of peace process,

Benyamin (00:25:06):

it means the return of war,

Benyamin (00:25:08):

etc.

Benyamin (00:25:09):

So from a Western perspective, yes, they simply looked at what happened in Moldova.

Benyamin (00:25:14):

Again, I'm not an expert on Moldova, I cannot comment what Russia did or not did.

Benyamin (00:25:19):

But I'm just telling you that according to many sources,

Benyamin (00:25:22):

including Moldovan sources,

Benyamin (00:25:23):

there were like hundreds of millions of dollars spent by Russia in Moldovan

Benyamin (00:25:27):

elections.

Benyamin (00:25:28):

So West looked at Moldova, now they look to Armenia and they simply draw parallels.

Benyamin (00:25:32):

Is this logical or not logical?

Hovik (00:25:34):

There is no evidence for that in Armenia.

Hovik (00:25:36):

I'm not sure about Moldova.

Asbed (00:25:37):

And are there estimates of how much the EU spends in Moldova?

Benyamin (00:25:41):

I think there are no estimates, but these are publicly available money.

Benyamin (00:25:44):

You can look into the recent visits.

Benyamin (00:25:46):

I mean, the recent visit which happened before September 2025 by EU to Moldova and also Moldova.

Benyamin (00:25:52):

But there is another caveat.

Benyamin (00:25:54):

Moldova is officially candidate status of the EU.

Benyamin (00:25:57):

And according to EU legislation,

Benyamin (00:25:58):

if you are candidate status,

Benyamin (00:25:59):

you already are entitled for getting money.

Benyamin (00:26:02):

You are entitled to get funding to make your institutions,

Benyamin (00:26:05):

your procedures,

Benyamin (00:26:06):

your standards closer to the European Union,

Benyamin (00:26:09):

so that at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:26:10):

you may become a member of the EU.

Benyamin (00:26:11):

So from European perspective,

Benyamin (00:26:13):

if there is funding from the EU to the Moldova,

Benyamin (00:26:15):

this is not hybrid warfare.

Benyamin (00:26:17):

Moldova is the candidate status of the EU.

Benyamin (00:26:19):

So according to the EU legislation,

Benyamin (00:26:21):

all the EU candidate status,

Benyamin (00:26:22):

like if you go into,

Benyamin (00:26:24):

for example, the history of Poland,

Benyamin (00:26:26):

or many other, Hungary, Bulgarian, etc.

Benyamin (00:26:29):

All these countries,

Benyamin (00:26:30):

first they became candidate status,

Benyamin (00:26:33):

or they became candidate countries,

Benyamin (00:26:35):

even Baltic states.

Benyamin (00:26:36):

Then, during many years,

Benyamin (00:26:37):

they got significant amount of European money,

Benyamin (00:26:39):

billions of euros,

Benyamin (00:26:40):

like to prepare these countries to the membership.

Benyamin (00:26:44):

to rise the standards and then these countries became member of EU.

Benyamin (00:26:48):

So from the European perspective,

Benyamin (00:26:49):

at least after Moldova became candidate status of the EU,

Benyamin (00:26:53):

EU has all legitimate rights to provide funding or money to Moldova to prepare

Benyamin (00:26:59):

Moldova for the membership of the EU.

Benyamin (00:27:01):

Again,

Benyamin (00:27:02):

from the European perspective,

Benyamin (00:27:03):

European money for Moldova cannot be perceived as a hybrid threat,

Benyamin (00:27:07):

hybrid warfare or interference into Moldovan internal affairs because Moldova is a

Benyamin (00:27:12):

candidate.

Benyamin (00:27:13):

country,

Benyamin (00:27:14):

Moldova has a candidate status,

Benyamin (00:27:16):

and any candidate country is entitled to receive significant European support,

Benyamin (00:27:21):

including money,

Benyamin (00:27:22):

to be prepared to finally become a member of the European Union.

Benyamin (00:27:25):

So it's a little bit of a mixed story,

Benyamin (00:27:27):

but what I want to say is that unfortunately,

Benyamin (00:27:30):

for many in the West,

Benyamin (00:27:31):

and almost for all in Europe,

Benyamin (00:27:34):

elections in Armenia are simply black and white,

Benyamin (00:27:37):

and elections in Armenia are a repetition of elections in Moldova,

Benyamin (00:27:40):

when there is good governance and bad opposition.

Hovik (00:27:43):

Yeah, I just have to say one thing.

Hovik (00:27:45):

I'm not aware of the Catholic, because Garegin II, having any contacts with Russia.

Hovik (00:27:51):

But I know that in May of this year,

Hovik (00:27:54):

he did go to Switzerland to a conference in Bern and started speaking about the

Hovik (00:28:00):

rights of Artsakhtsis,

Hovik (00:28:01):

displaced Artsakhtsis,

Hovik (00:28:02):

and the cultural and religious rights and heritage of Armenians in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:28:08):

That's right.

Hovik (00:28:11):

Which started this campaign.

Hovik (00:28:12):

So I think it's important to highlight that.

Hovik (00:28:15):

And just to close this section,

Hovik (00:28:17):

Benjamin, I want to ask you,

Hovik (00:28:20):

what is the ultimate goal of Pashinyan with this church?

Hovik (00:28:23):

We talked a little bit about it, maybe very shortly before we move on.

Hovik (00:28:26):

I know we're 30 minutes in,

Hovik (00:28:27):

but I want to,

Hovik (00:28:29):

you know,

Hovik (00:28:30):

get your thoughts on...

Hovik (00:28:32):

Because just today,

Hovik (00:28:33):

or just maybe yesterday,

Hovik (00:28:35):

he said that the Armenian flag should be displayed in churches in Armenia,

Hovik (00:28:40):

and the divine liturgy should be preceded by singing the Armenian national anthem.

Benyamin (00:28:46):

I think it's very complex and complicated to answer to that question,

Benyamin (00:28:49):

but as far as I understand,

Benyamin (00:28:51):

which may be completely wrong,

Benyamin (00:28:53):

I think either he wants to have loyal Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:28:56):

whatever he understands under loyalty,

Benyamin (00:29:00):

or if there is no possibility to have loyal Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:29:03):

probably he would like to have some sort of parallel church,

Benyamin (00:29:06):

at least de facto.

Benyamin (00:29:08):

I'm not sure about de jure, but at least de facto.

Benyamin (00:29:10):

At least this is what I see as two potential possible endgames.

Benyamin (00:29:15):

Either at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:29:17):

Catholicos resigns,

Benyamin (00:29:19):

and there will be new elections,

Benyamin (00:29:21):

and Prime Minister already stated that the government should have significant say

Benyamin (00:29:25):

or significant involvement in the election of new Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:29:29):

or if there is no resignation,

Benyamin (00:29:31):

then I think we are coming closer to have at least de facto parallel church.

Benyamin (00:29:35):

Maybe not de jure, I'm not sure, but de facto for sure.

Hovik (00:29:39):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:29:40):

And all this also,

Hovik (00:29:43):

while churches in Armenia have been sealed off,

Hovik (00:29:48):

you know, the churches that,

Hovik (00:29:51):

you know, are led by those,

Hovik (00:29:52):

some of the renegade priests have...

Hovik (00:29:56):

They've put locks on them and even regular believers can't attend there.

Asbed (00:30:03):

Benjamin, you mentioned some of the events in Moldova and how there are parallels to Armenia.

Asbed (00:30:08):

So let's talk a little bit about that angle because in other news from last week,

Asbed (00:30:12):

Armenia's foreign minister was in Brussels for the signing of yet another strategic

Asbed (00:30:17):

partnership.

Asbed (00:30:18):

The strategic agenda for the Armenia-EU partnership was signed and Kaya Kalas,

Asbed (00:30:22):

who is EU's top diplomat,

Asbed (00:30:24):

sort of

Asbed (00:30:25):

sort of their secretary of state,

Asbed (00:30:27):

but not really because the EU is not as cohesive as the United States.

Asbed (00:30:32):

She complained that Armenia's compliance with the EU directives is only at 37%.

Asbed (00:30:38):

And she urged for Armenia to join sanctions against Russia.

Asbed (00:30:42):

Can you tell us if this was a demand?

Asbed (00:30:44):

How realistic is such an urging?

Asbed (00:30:48):

And can Armenia realistically comply with such a thing?

Asbed (00:30:51):

I mean, we all know,

Asbed (00:30:53):

even from about a month ago when there were all the stories about grain through

Asbed (00:30:57):

Azerbaijan, et cetera,

Asbed (00:30:58):

et cetera, that Armenia is trying to diversify its economy essentially away from Russia.

Asbed (00:31:02):

That's what diversification really means these days.

Asbed (00:31:05):

But is it realistic for Armenia to comply with EU demands to join sanctions against

Asbed (00:31:11):

Russia today?

Hovik (00:31:13):

And just to add to that,

Hovik (00:31:14):

just today there was news that Armenia plans to import Azerbaijani oil via Georgia.

Benyamin (00:31:25):

So I think we need a few clarifications.

Benyamin (00:31:28):

First of all, about this Armenia-EU new strategic agenda.

Benyamin (00:31:32):

So negotiations were underway almost two years.

Benyamin (00:31:35):

The first idea circulated, I think, in February 2024.

Benyamin (00:31:39):

at that time it was simply called Armenia-EU New Partnership Agenda.

Benyamin (00:31:44):

Then after the Washington declaration,

Benyamin (00:31:47):

I think the Armenian government asked to put the name strategic,

Benyamin (00:31:51):

so there was another few months delay of signature,

Benyamin (00:31:54):

and finally they signed this in December 2nd,

Benyamin (00:31:57):

I believe, 2025, EU-Armenia New Strategic Partnership Agenda.

Benyamin (00:32:02):

So first of all, let's be clear,

Benyamin (00:32:04):

This is not a legal document,

Benyamin (00:32:06):

this is not a replacement of comprehensive and enhanced partnership agreement,

Benyamin (00:32:10):

which was signed in November 2017,

Benyamin (00:32:12):

CEPA.

Benyamin (00:32:13):

This is not a replacement of CEPA,

Benyamin (00:32:15):

this is not going to be ratified by Armenian parliament or by any EU member

Benyamin (00:32:18):

parliament,

Benyamin (00:32:19):

while CEPA was ratified by European parliament and all 27 member state parliaments.

Benyamin (00:32:25):

So legally, Armenian relations are continuing to be based on CEPA.

Benyamin (00:32:29):

And I think CEPA envisaged the partnership priorities and first partnership

Benyamin (00:32:34):

priorities were fixed probably in late 2017,

Benyamin (00:32:38):

immediately after CEPA or early 2018.

Benyamin (00:32:41):

So this is just the next iteration of these partnership priorities.

Benyamin (00:32:46):

Of course, this will be much deeper document.

Benyamin (00:32:48):

I believe this is more than 60 pages.

Benyamin (00:32:50):

this new strategic partnership agenda, while previous partnership priorities were 10 pages.

Benyamin (00:32:55):

But again, legally, there is no qualitative change.

Benyamin (00:32:59):

So this is not even an association...

Asbed (00:33:00):

You're saying that maybe there's no qualitative change,

Asbed (00:33:03):

but there's a further definition of what's involved in the scope.

Benyamin (00:33:07):

I think this is a further definition how to fully implement CEPA.

Benyamin (00:33:10):

Because despite the fact that CEPA was signed in 2017,

Benyamin (00:33:15):

partially entered into force in 2018 and fully entered into force in 2021,

Benyamin (00:33:21):

which means four years ago,

Benyamin (00:33:23):

CEPA fully entered into force,

Benyamin (00:33:24):

still I believe the realization of CEPA is maximum 50%.

Benyamin (00:33:29):

Maximum of 50% is the realization of CEPA.

Benyamin (00:33:32):

And these new strategic partnership priorities or strategic partnership agenda,

Benyamin (00:33:36):

this is about how to more successfully implement CEPA.

Benyamin (00:33:40):

And of course,

Benyamin (00:33:41):

there will be some other new elements,

Benyamin (00:33:43):

for example, cooperation in defense and security,

Benyamin (00:33:45):

because Armenia launched political and security consultations with the European

Benyamin (00:33:50):

Union in 2023.

Benyamin (00:33:51):

We have this EU monitoring mission,

Benyamin (00:33:54):

briefly deployed in Armenia in late 2022,

Benyamin (00:33:57):

and then by two years,

Benyamin (00:33:58):

February 2023,

Benyamin (00:34:00):

February 2025,

Benyamin (00:34:01):

and then extended for another two years until February 2027.

Benyamin (00:34:04):

So of course, there are a few new components.

Benyamin (00:34:07):

In Armenia-EU relations,

Benyamin (00:34:09):

EU launched its resilience and growth plan in 2024,

Benyamin (00:34:14):

allocating 270 million euros for Armenia for the period of 2024-2027.

Benyamin (00:34:20):

But again, this is not like qualitative change.

Benyamin (00:34:23):

This is not even association agreement, which Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed back in 2014.

Benyamin (00:34:29):

This is not even the association agreement.

Benyamin (00:34:32):

And definitely this has nothing to do with potential...

Benyamin (00:34:35):

potential membership of Armenia into the European Union.

Benyamin (00:34:39):

Now, regarding statements of Ms. Kaja Kallas that Armenian foreign policy is in line with

Benyamin (00:34:44):

European foreign policy only 37%,

Benyamin (00:34:47):

Frankly speaking, I'm surprised,

Benyamin (00:34:48):

like,

Benyamin (00:34:49):

and why Armenian foreign policy should be aligned with EU foreign policy more than

Benyamin (00:34:52):

37%,

Benyamin (00:34:53):

while Armenia is a still full member of the European Economic Union.

Benyamin (00:34:57):

It's a little bit strange to hear such statement,

Benyamin (00:34:59):

because it's a case,

Benyamin (00:35:00):

if I will go to some EU member state and say,

Benyamin (00:35:03):

look, your foreign policy is in line with Russian foreign policy only in 37%,

Benyamin (00:35:06):

and this is terrible.

Benyamin (00:35:09):

But people will say, okay, what the hell I'm doing with Russia?

Benyamin (00:35:12):

I'm a member of the European Union.

Benyamin (00:35:14):

Let's not forget, Armenia is a full member of the European Economic Union,

Benyamin (00:35:17):

Yes, Armenia-Russia relations have the ups and downs.

Benyamin (00:35:20):

We froze our membership into CSTO.

Benyamin (00:35:23):

We stopped buying anything from Russia.

Benyamin (00:35:25):

And I would say maybe Russia also is not able to provide too much.

Benyamin (00:35:29):

Though Russia is still providing weapons to Belarus, but I don't want to jump into this area.

Benyamin (00:35:33):

But still, Armenia is a full member of the Eurasian Economic Union.

Benyamin (00:35:37):

And to say that Eurasian Economic Union members should put sanctions against

Benyamin (00:35:42):

another Eurasian Economic Union member because of

Benyamin (00:35:45):

it signed some partnership priorities in line with SEPA,

Benyamin (00:35:49):

which itself is in line with Armenia's obligations towards Eurasian Economic Union.

Benyamin (00:35:54):

Because if you remember in 2017,

Benyamin (00:35:55):

there was no objection from Eurasian Economic Union,

Benyamin (00:36:00):

from Eurasian Economic Commission,

Benyamin (00:36:01):

or from Russia that SEPA violates Armenia's membership into Eurasian Economic

Benyamin (00:36:06):

Union.

Benyamin (00:36:07):

And again, as I mentioned,

Benyamin (00:36:08):

this new strategic partnership agenda,

Benyamin (00:36:11):

this is based on CEPA,

Benyamin (00:36:12):

which means that it cannot violate Eurasian Economic Union standards.

Benyamin (00:36:16):

So the statement of Kaja Kallas I think is just a political statement because

Benyamin (00:36:19):

legally and I would say even logically like why Armenia foreign policy should be in

Benyamin (00:36:24):

line with EU foreign policy especially regarding to Russia while again Armenia

Benyamin (00:36:28):

still legally or on the paper military ally of Russia Armenia full member of the

Benyamin (00:36:33):

European Economic Union and EU and Russia are in de facto war or they are forging

Benyamin (00:36:40):

proxy war in the territory of Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:36:42):

So this was a political statement

Benyamin (00:36:44):

And my hope is that nobody in Armenian government is going to make a suicide,

Benyamin (00:36:51):

at least for themselves.

Benyamin (00:36:52):

Because to take any sanctions against Russia,

Benyamin (00:36:56):

look, even Georgia,

Benyamin (00:36:58):

which was granted a candidate status for the EU,

Benyamin (00:37:00):

Georgia is a candidate country for the EU.

Benyamin (00:37:03):

If you look into where Armenia-EU relations are,

Benyamin (00:37:06):

legally, I'm not speaking about political terms like statements that we are happy,

Benyamin (00:37:09):

Armenia is good,

Benyamin (00:37:10):

Georgia is bad,

Benyamin (00:37:11):

all these are political statements.

Benyamin (00:37:13):

Put aside political statements,

Benyamin (00:37:14):

Georgia is much,

Benyamin (00:37:15):

much,

Benyamin (00:37:16):

much further in its relations with the EU than Armenia,

Benyamin (00:37:19):

because Georgia 11 years ago signed association agreement which we are not even

Benyamin (00:37:23):

negotiating.

Benyamin (00:37:25):

Georgia signed association agreement 11 years ago, we are not negotiating

Benyamin (00:37:30):

association agreement in 2025.

Benyamin (00:37:31):

So even Georgia did not impose sanctions on Russia.

Benyamin (00:37:34):

So this is just a political statement from Kaja Kallas,

Benyamin (00:37:37):

which my understanding is will not have any real impact on the ground.

Asbed (00:37:41):

But of course,

Asbed (00:37:42):

we've seen the kind of trouble that Georgia has had with the EU because they've

Asbed (00:37:46):

resisted external influence from both sides,

Asbed (00:37:49):

from both Russia and the EU.

Asbed (00:37:51):

So, you know, and I think their candidate status has been frozen.

Asbed (00:37:56):

Is that true?

Benyamin (00:37:57):

No, the membership process has been thrown, not candidate status.

Asbed (00:38:00):

That's right.

Benyamin (00:38:00):

So legally,

Benyamin (00:38:01):

Georgia is still candidate status,

Benyamin (00:38:02):

though recently,

Benyamin (00:38:03):

in November 2025,

Benyamin (00:38:05):

just one month ago,

Benyamin (00:38:06):

I think,

Benyamin (00:38:07):

the European Commission published its membership reports for all candidate

Benyamin (00:38:11):

countries,

Benyamin (00:38:12):

including Georgia,

Benyamin (00:38:13):

and they said that Georgia is a candidate country only on paper.

Benyamin (00:38:17):

But again, legally, no one canceled Georgia's candidate status.

Benyamin (00:38:20):

And look, now Georgia has, like...

Benyamin (00:38:23):

policy which is not in line with the EU, but Georgia is a candidate country.

Benyamin (00:38:26):

Maybe five or ten years from now,

Benyamin (00:38:28):

there will be another government in Georgia,

Benyamin (00:38:30):

but the legal base is there,

Benyamin (00:38:31):

and they immediately can start or restart the process.

Asbed (00:38:34):

So during the same event that we were talking about a moment ago with Kaja Kallas

Asbed (00:38:38):

and Ararat Mirzoyan,

Asbed (00:38:40):

etc.,

Asbed (00:38:41):

15 million euros were earmarked for Armenia to support peace and more resilient

Asbed (00:38:46):

Armenia.

Asbed (00:38:47):

And the officials spoke about threats to Armenia's democracy

Asbed (00:38:51):

ahead of elections, which was front and center, I believe, in their mind.

Asbed (00:38:56):

And some of the funding will apparently go to what we talked about,

Asbed (00:38:59):

Russian hybrid warfare and disinformation,

Asbed (00:39:02):

similar to the tactics that the EU claimed they saw in Moldova.

Asbed (00:39:06):

What is this money going to be used for if these are specifically the earmarks that

Asbed (00:39:11):

they are thinking about?

Asbed (00:39:13):

Because let me also say,

Asbed (00:39:14):

Benny,

Asbed (00:39:15):

I mean, I read one of the articles which quoted Kaja Kallas,

Asbed (00:39:18):

and they were talking about preventing external interference in Armenia's

Asbed (00:39:22):

elections,

Asbed (00:39:23):

while this money is clearly going to interfere with Armenia's elections.

Asbed (00:39:29):

Are they covered under the same partnership relations where,

Asbed (00:39:32):

because of Armenia's status,

Asbed (00:39:34):

anything that the EU does in Armenia interfering in its elections cannot be defined

Asbed (00:39:39):

as interference?

Benyamin (00:39:41):

A very good question. Look, now we live in a post-truth world, so it depends on what perspective you watch.

Benyamin (00:39:46):

If you look into the Russian media or Russian analysts,

Benyamin (00:39:48):

they are telling that,

Benyamin (00:39:49):

okay,

Benyamin (00:39:50):

Russia is doing nothing,

Benyamin (00:39:51):

but the EU is fully interfering into Armenia's domestic affairs,

Benyamin (00:39:54):

publicly stating that it should do everything to prevent pro-Russian forces coming

Benyamin (00:39:59):

into power.

Benyamin (00:40:01):

But this is a political debate.

Benyamin (00:40:02):

But in reality, okay, I may assume that some money will go for Trek II dialogues,

Benyamin (00:40:08):

like what does it mean prepare for peace probably for additional funding could go

Benyamin (00:40:12):

for different track tour track 1.5 dialogues with Azerbaijani experts maybe also

Benyamin (00:40:18):

some more direct dialogues direct I mean bilateral not meetings outside Armenian

Benyamin (00:40:24):

Azerbaijan and you know that I am part of many initiatives but also these direct

Benyamin (00:40:27):

visits Armenians going to Baku Azerbaijan is coming to Armenia and second yes I

Benyamin (00:40:32):

think there will be significant amount of money to Armenian media

Benyamin (00:40:36):

as Europeans are telling Armenian independent media to fight foreign interference,

Benyamin (00:40:40):

media manipulation.

Benyamin (00:40:41):

So there are a lot of buzzwords now.

Benyamin (00:40:44):

It's like misinformation,

Benyamin (00:40:47):

disinformation, propaganda,

Benyamin (00:40:48):

hybrid threat,

Benyamin (00:40:49):

hybrid warfare, whatever threats.

Benyamin (00:40:51):

Again, as I said,

Benyamin (00:40:52):

I'm not sure that many people who are using these terms non-stop,

Benyamin (00:40:56):

they even fully are aware about academic definitions.

Benyamin (00:40:59):

Because everything has been mixed.

Benyamin (00:41:00):

There is an academic definition.

Benyamin (00:41:02):

What is hybrid warfare?

Benyamin (00:41:03):

And this is evolving.

Benyamin (00:41:04):

Like 10 years ago, there was another perception of hybrid war.

Benyamin (00:41:08):

In 2025, there is another perception of hybrid war.

Benyamin (00:41:11):

But because everything is politicized,

Benyamin (00:41:13):

currently, from European perspective,

Benyamin (00:41:15):

anything which Russia is doing is a hybrid war and this should be fight.

Benyamin (00:41:18):

Fight against or should be fought against.

Benyamin (00:41:21):

So I may assume that, yes, two main directions.

Benyamin (00:41:25):

Track 2 or Track 1.5 diplomacy.

Benyamin (00:41:28):

And probably support against Russian hybrid threats, whatever we may understand on it.

Asbed (00:41:33):

Yeah, well, they certainly don't have to fund any of the arrests of the clergy because their

Asbed (00:41:37):

silence speaks very loudly about that.

Hovik (00:41:40):

And my comment on that is shortly before the 2021 elections,

Hovik (00:41:45):

several fact-checking organizations started in Armenia.

Hovik (00:41:49):

And interestingly,

Hovik (00:41:51):

these fact-checking organizations were very much interested in what the opposition

Hovik (00:41:54):

was saying.

Hovik (00:41:55):

So many opposition media were shut down prior to the 2021 elections.

Hovik (00:42:01):

All I can say is probably Daniel Ioannisyan and the Media Initiative Center will

Hovik (00:42:09):

get a lot of money for more fact-checking and more articles.

Hovik (00:42:14):

To support democracy.

Hovik (00:42:16):

Yeah, to support democracy, but only if the opposition says something wrong.

Hovik (00:42:22):

If Pashinyan says that,

Hovik (00:42:23):

you know,

Hovik (00:42:24):

Pashinyan's team,

Hovik (00:42:25):

like, I remember many opposition media during that time got banned for...

Benyamin (00:42:31):

You mean got banned from Facebook,

Benyamin (00:42:33):

like from social media,

Benyamin (00:42:34):

yes?

Hovik (00:42:34):

From Facebook,

Hovik (00:42:35):

from social media,

Hovik (00:42:36):

for quoting someone who said something untrue about COVID,

Hovik (00:42:40):

right? The pretense was COVID.

Hovik (00:42:41):

And then...

Hovik (00:42:43):

Pashinyan's health minister said that you can't get COVID.

Hovik (00:42:50):

He threatened, I'm going to come and give you COVID and everything.

Hovik (00:42:53):

And no one banned him from Facebook.

Hovik (00:42:57):

But anyway, let's move on.

Hovik (00:42:59):

Another thing that happened is right one day after the OSCE Minsk Group was

Hovik (00:43:03):

officially dissolved,

Hovik (00:43:05):

the Pashinyan regime announced that it was publishing documents related to the

Hovik (00:43:09):

negotiation process.

Hovik (00:43:11):

But what did it publish?

Hovik (00:43:13):

I'll mention a few things.

Hovik (00:43:15):

One of the documents was a printout from the Armenian Times newspaper,

Hovik (00:43:19):

from Nikol Pashinyan's newspaper.

Hovik (00:43:21):

Another document was from Kazimirov's website, who was once the Russian co-chair, I believe.

Hovik (00:43:28):

Another document was a very Turkish proposal,

Hovik (00:43:31):

which, as far as I'm aware,

Hovik (00:43:32):

does not become an official document at the OSC Minsk Group.

Hovik (00:43:38):

Then Pashinyan published a letter from Serge Sargsyan to Putin,

Hovik (00:43:43):

which the Russian government condemned because it violated normal diplomatic

Hovik (00:43:47):

ethics.

Hovik (00:43:49):

Now, Karen Bekaryan,

Hovik (00:43:51):

who is very close to the Serge Sargsyan team,

Hovik (00:43:54):

also argues that actually only a small percentage of all documents generated

Hovik (00:44:00):

throughout the 30 years were published.

Hovik (00:44:02):

What it didn't publish, we know for sure, was the Key West proposals,

Hovik (00:44:07):

The first three pages of which have already been leaked in the media,

Hovik (00:44:11):

but even that was not published.

Hovik (00:44:13):

In response to that question on why he didn't publish it,

Hovik (00:44:16):

or why they didn't publish it,

Hovik (00:44:18):

Pashinyan said that the Armenian government does not possess such a document.

Hovik (00:44:23):

So let me begin.

Hovik (00:44:25):

By asking you,

Hovik (00:44:26):

Benyamin,

Hovik (00:44:27):

what was the reason that Pashinyan published only a limited set of documents and

Hovik (00:44:32):

not the entire cache of documents?

Hovik (00:44:34):

And also,

Hovik (00:44:35):

maybe at the same time,

Hovik (00:44:36):

regarding Key West,

Hovik (00:44:41):

if they didn't have that proposal,

Hovik (00:44:42):

couldn't they get it from one of the partner countries?

Benyamin (00:44:47):

I think,

Benyamin (00:44:48):

first of all,

Benyamin (00:44:49):

let's remember that all this talk about publication of documents were demands by

Benyamin (00:44:54):

former president, because you know that there was this tit and tat,

Benyamin (00:44:57):

Pashinyan was demanding debate,

Benyamin (00:44:58):

presidents were telling no debate,

Benyamin (00:45:00):

just published the documents.

Benyamin (00:45:02):

So look,

Benyamin (00:45:03):

I think even it's not too much important what happened in Key West,

Benyamin (00:45:06):

because Robert Kocharyan is there and he's telling that what happened in Key West.

Benyamin (00:45:09):

Of course, we may say we cannot

Benyamin (00:45:12):

fully trust Robert Kocharyan because he was there and probably would like to

Benyamin (00:45:16):

protect his image or whatever but I think the... probably the most interesting part

Benyamin (00:45:22):

is what happened after 2019 because the last document which was published by

Benyamin (00:45:26):

government I think it was June 2019 proposal by the OSCE Minsk Group

Benyamin (00:45:30):

And the second last was probably this Krakow document,

Benyamin (00:45:33):

which was discussed in January 2018,

Benyamin (00:45:36):

I believe immediately before the change of government in May 2018.

Benyamin (00:45:42):

But actually, I think now, but more or less we knew about all this.

Benyamin (00:45:46):

Look, for example, a Russian co-chair Popov, I think, published

Benyamin (00:45:50):

almost entire this Russian proposal or entire OSCE Group proposal in early 2021.

Benyamin (00:45:55):

So to say that for expert communities this was something significantly new,

Benyamin (00:46:00):

of course it's interesting to have all the texts,

Benyamin (00:46:02):

at least on the documents which were published,

Benyamin (00:46:04):

but again I'm not in a position,

Benyamin (00:46:05):

for example,

Benyamin (00:46:06):

I myself who are covering this process starting from 2008-2009,

Benyamin (00:46:09):

even before Kazan summit of 2011,

Benyamin (00:46:14):

It's not things that, okay, I'm shocked or I suppose completely different things.

Benyamin (00:46:18):

For ordinary population,

Benyamin (00:46:20):

even I'm not very much sure that in these crazy times when every day there is a new

Benyamin (00:46:24):

news,

Benyamin (00:46:25):

fight against church,

Benyamin (00:46:26):

I don't know, fight against this,

Benyamin (00:46:28):

that ordinary citizens are too much interested.

Benyamin (00:46:30):

But for example, for me,

Benyamin (00:46:31):

it will be interesting also to have the publication of document or at least

Benyamin (00:46:36):

publication of some details of negotiations,

Benyamin (00:46:38):

what happened after 2019, what happened

Benyamin (00:46:41):

After Armenia received this June 2019 proposal, what was Armenia's answer, if there was answer?

Benyamin (00:46:47):

Why there was no answer, if there was no answer?

Benyamin (00:46:49):

What was Azerbaijani answer, if there was Azerbaijani answer?

Benyamin (00:46:53):

And also,

Benyamin (00:46:55):

for example,

Benyamin (00:46:57):

were there any negotiations or discussions between June 2019 and September 2020?

Benyamin (00:47:03):

We also know,

Hovik (00:47:04):

but we know that right after the June 2019 proposal,

Hovik (00:47:09):

one month or less than a month later,

Hovik (00:47:11):

Pashinyan went to Artsakh and said that Artsakh is Armenia period.

Benyamin (00:47:15):

Yes, I think it was August 2019.

Benyamin (00:47:19):

And also it's very interesting to understand what happened between November 2020

Benyamin (00:47:23):

and September 2023.

Benyamin (00:47:26):

For example, what were the discussions preceding the Prague, October 2022 Prague declaration?

Benyamin (00:47:32):

through which Armenia recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:47:36):

So,

Benyamin (00:47:37):

frankly speaking,

Benyamin (00:47:38):

from, like,

Benyamin (00:47:39):

interest of expert and also for,

Benyamin (00:47:40):

like,

Benyamin (00:47:41):

every citizen,

Benyamin (00:47:42):

I think it's not very much interesting what was Key West,

Benyamin (00:47:44):

because at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:47:45):

we know that President Aliyev rejected Key West.

Benyamin (00:47:48):

Yes, there is some criticism also against Robert Kocharian that Key West was bad,

Benyamin (00:47:52):

but logic tells that if Key West was bad for Armenia,

Benyamin (00:47:54):

then probably Heydar Aliyev,

Benyamin (00:47:56):

who was a smart person,

Benyamin (00:47:57):

would not reject it.

Benyamin (00:47:58):

So we know that Heydar Aliyev rejected Key West.

Benyamin (00:48:01):

So I think it's not...

Benyamin (00:48:02):

It's vital to know details about Key West.

Benyamin (00:48:05):

We know that Heydar Aliyev rejected Key West.

Benyamin (00:48:07):

We know that Ilham Aliyev rejected the Kazan document.

Benyamin (00:48:10):

These are facts.

Asbed (00:48:11):

I think it's really important what you're saying,

Asbed (00:48:13):

Benjamin, that it's not really that important to worry about Key West because that's 25 years

Asbed (00:48:18):

ago. Basically, the outcome is known in the last 25 years.

Asbed (00:48:22):

Really, what's important is 2019 and forward.

Asbed (00:48:24):

The rest is just numerous.

Hovik (00:48:27):

So let me close this topic by also asking one more question and we'll move on.

Hovik (00:48:30):

Pashinyan's argument is that starting from the declaration of the OSCE Lisbon Summit in 1996,

Hovik (00:48:37):

The OSC Minsk Group was always going to support Azerbaijan's claim of territorial

Hovik (00:48:42):

integrity and that the international community was using the Nagorno-Karabakh issue

Hovik (00:48:47):

to tie a rope on Armenia's neck.

Hovik (00:48:52):

Can you just very quickly, maybe even yes or no, say, do you believe that is the case?

Benyamin (00:48:58):

Okay,

Benyamin (00:48:59):

on first question,

Benyamin (00:49:00):

definitely no,

Benyamin (00:49:01):

and even documents published by government itself shows that this was not the case.

Benyamin (00:49:06):

Regarding the international community,

Benyamin (00:49:07):

let's forget about international communities,

Benyamin (00:49:09):

there is no such thing.

Benyamin (00:49:11):

Let's be very clear.

Benyamin (00:49:12):

All great and middle power,

Benyamin (00:49:13):

they are trying to use every conflict in the world to push forward their interest.

Benyamin (00:49:18):

This is basic nature.

Benyamin (00:49:19):

It's the same nature as humans are breathing.

Benyamin (00:49:22):

So it's the same case if I will accuse someone of breathing.

Benyamin (00:49:24):

This is nonsense.

Benyamin (00:49:25):

Humans should breathe.

Benyamin (00:49:27):

Great and middle powers, they are using conflicts to promote their interests.

Benyamin (00:49:31):

Also, this is a fact.

Benyamin (00:49:32):

But this does not mean that because of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,

Benyamin (00:49:35):

as all other conflicts in the world were used by great or middle powers for their

Benyamin (00:49:40):

interests,

Benyamin (00:49:41):

this does not mean that Armenia should agree to destroy Nagorno-Karabakh.

Benyamin (00:49:45):

As simple as it is.

Asbed (00:49:47):

I think the documents that were published by Popov also corroborate your statements

Asbed (00:49:54):

that what Pashinyan was claiming were just not true at the time.

Asbed (00:49:58):

But allow me to move us forward.

Asbed (00:50:00):

We're way into our show.

Asbed (00:50:02):

Let's hit our topic,

Asbed (00:50:04):

which has to do with the results of a poll by the ARAR Foundation that were released

Asbed (00:50:08):

last month.

Asbed (00:50:10):

For our listeners, we're putting the details of methodology and the links in the show notes.

Asbed (00:50:15):

So please go over there and take a look.

Asbed (00:50:17):

It's podcasts.groong.org/episode-number.

Hovik (00:50:21):

We will also put the links to the poll that you can download yourself from the ARAR

Hovik (00:50:27):

Foundation website.

Asbed (00:50:28):

That's right.

Asbed (00:50:29):

So let's focus on the slide asking for the satisfaction levels regarding various

Asbed (00:50:33):

Armenian institutions,

Asbed (00:50:35):

the parliament, the armed forces,

Asbed (00:50:36):

police, the government,

Asbed (00:50:37):

and the Armenian church.

Asbed (00:50:39):

And we see that the National Assembly and the government have some of the lowest

Asbed (00:50:42):

satisfaction ratings while the armed forces,

Asbed (00:50:45):

the church,

Asbed (00:50:46):

and also the police have reasonably high satisfactions.

Asbed (00:50:50):

Can you explain these results, Benyamin?

Asbed (00:50:52):

Why is it that the government has such low levels of satisfaction

Asbed (00:50:56):

And a little bit more about why the police,

Asbed (00:50:59):

for example, I have some questions about why you would think that the police has higher levels

Asbed (00:51:04):

of satisfaction. What people would include in their understanding of a poll, a question, about the police?

Benyamin (00:51:10):

To be frank, I'm also surprised about police because we see that there is an increase of criminal

Benyamin (00:51:17):

acts in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:51:19):

So I'm not sure why people should be happy from police.

Benyamin (00:51:22):

Maybe they are happy from this patrol police.

Benyamin (00:51:25):

who are very useful,

Benyamin (00:51:26):

at least during the evening and morning rush hours,

Benyamin (00:51:29):

they are somehow regulating the crazy traffic in Yerevan.

Benyamin (00:51:32):

And maybe for many people,

Benyamin (00:51:33):

their interactions with police are mostly through this petrol police,

Benyamin (00:51:38):

with these brand new electric Volvos or whatever.

Benyamin (00:51:41):

and also like helping ease the traffic jams in rush hours in the morning and

Benyamin (00:51:46):

evening maybe this is why for many people when you ask about police they

Benyamin (00:51:50):

immediately like they see in their mind like petrol police helping them to navigate

Benyamin (00:51:55):

the traffic and they say yes this is a good job is done so this is one of the

Benyamin (00:51:58):

explanation because generally i'm not sure that for example criminal situation in

Benyamin (00:52:02):

armenia is very easy or like the crime is going down as far as i know regarding the

Benyamin (00:52:08):

church i think we discussed already once like

Benyamin (00:52:12):

The church always had high ratings,

Benyamin (00:52:14):

I think starting from late 1990s,

Benyamin (00:52:16):

early 2000s,

Benyamin (00:52:17):

when this sociological survey started to be done.

Benyamin (00:52:19):

And I remember always,

Benyamin (00:52:21):

under Robert Kocharyan,

Benyamin (00:52:22):

under Ser Sarkisyan,

Benyamin (00:52:23):

church and armies,

Benyamin (00:52:24):

they had higher ratings than,

Benyamin (00:52:25):

for example,

Benyamin (00:52:26):

president or parliament.

Benyamin (00:52:27):

Okay, at that time, president, because until 2018, Armenia was a presidential republic.

Benyamin (00:52:33):

But also there is one interesting thing.

Benyamin (00:52:35):

For example, if you look into the polls,

Benyamin (00:52:36):

and I remember the polls which were conducted between November 2020 and September

Benyamin (00:52:41):

2023.

Benyamin (00:52:43):

And there were several questions like,

Benyamin (00:52:44):

okay, would you agree that Nagorno-Karabakh can be part of Azerbaijan with guaranteed

Benyamin (00:52:48):

rights for Armenians?

Benyamin (00:52:50):

Again, with guaranteed rights for Armenians, which means with Armenian population in Artsakh.

Benyamin (00:52:55):

And more than 90% in Armenia were telling,

Benyamin (00:52:57):

no, this is absolutely unacceptable,

Benyamin (00:52:58):

we'll never accept Artsakh being part of Azerbaijan with guaranteed rights.

Benyamin (00:53:03):

rights for Armenians.

Benyamin (00:53:04):

Then September 2023 happened,

Benyamin (00:53:06):

ethnic cleansing,

Benyamin (00:53:07):

no Armenians in Artsakh for more than two years,

Benyamin (00:53:11):

and besides a few days of protests mostly organized by Armenians from

Benyamin (00:53:16):

Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19,

Benyamin (00:53:17):

2021,

Benyamin (00:53:19):

and then the protest of this spiritual movement of Archbishop Bagrat,

Benyamin (00:53:24):

but this was driven by delimitation in Tavush,

Benyamin (00:53:27):

it was not solely driven by what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh,

Benyamin (00:53:30):

we don't see significant protests.

Benyamin (00:53:31):

So I think we should use,

Benyamin (00:53:35):

there is an English saying,

Benyamin (00:53:38):

you should use it with a bit of salt or something like that.

Benyamin (00:53:40):

I think we should take with a bit of salt this sociological survey result,

Benyamin (00:53:45):

because sometimes people are answering what seems morally right,

Benyamin (00:53:50):

Like, morally right, of course,

Benyamin (00:53:51):

you should say, yes, I'm happy to see Artak as a part of Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:53:54):

It seems nonsense and seems morally outrageous.

Benyamin (00:53:57):

But it does not mean that you are ready to do anything to prevent that.

Benyamin (00:54:02):

And here there is a difference between what people think

Benyamin (00:54:08):

and what people are ready to do, even small sacrifices.

Benyamin (00:54:11):

I'm not speaking about ultimate sacrifices like go to the war to be killed or etc.

Benyamin (00:54:15):

But very small sacrifices like,

Benyamin (00:54:17):

I don't know,

Benyamin (00:54:18):

to sacrifice your time,

Benyamin (00:54:19):

potentially to sacrifice your job or whatever.

Benyamin (00:54:22):

So I think if we would like to better understand the situation,

Benyamin (00:54:25):

we should take this into account because otherwise we are seeing a little bit

Benyamin (00:54:30):

different reality.

Benyamin (00:54:31):

Reality according to Paul's and reality which we see with our own eyes.

Benyamin (00:54:36):

And also regarding the church.

Benyamin (00:54:38):

I think because the current government is depicting its fight against leadership of

Benyamin (00:54:44):

church,

Benyamin (00:54:45):

the narrative of the government is this.

Benyamin (00:54:47):

They are not telling us we are fighting against Armenian Apostolic Church,

Benyamin (00:54:49):

we want to destroy Armenian Apostolic Church.

Benyamin (00:54:52):

Their narrative is we are trying to purify Armenian Apostolic Church.

Benyamin (00:54:56):

So to better understand what people think about Armenian Apostolic Church leadership,

Benyamin (00:55:01):

I would advise to ask people two questions.

Benyamin (00:55:04):

What is your opinion about Armenian Apostolic Church?

Benyamin (00:55:07):

And what is your opinion about the leadership or highest leadership of Armenian

Benyamin (00:55:10):

Apostolic Church?

Benyamin (00:55:11):

Because look,

Benyamin (00:55:12):

When these ten bishops signed a letter demanding resignation of Catholicos,

Benyamin (00:55:16):

all social media,

Benyamin (00:55:18):

including opposition media,

Benyamin (00:55:19):

were full of stories,

Benyamin (00:55:20):

yes,

Benyamin (00:55:21):

that all these ten bishops are involved in many acts which are not in line with

Benyamin (00:55:26):

spiritual or church issues,

Benyamin (00:55:28):

yes,

Benyamin (00:55:29):

they have been accused of being businesses,

Benyamin (00:55:30):

driving luxurious cars,

Benyamin (00:55:32):

even having children,

Benyamin (00:55:33):

etc, etc.

Benyamin (00:55:34):

But you are speaking about bishops, and all ordinary people are reading this.

Benyamin (00:55:38):

And to be very fair,

Benyamin (00:55:40):

well before the 2018 Velvet Revolution,

Benyamin (00:55:42):

there was a lot of rumors about many bishops,

Benyamin (00:55:44):

in Armenia at least.

Benyamin (00:55:45):

I'm not sure this was the case in the diaspora.

Asbed (00:55:47):

That is the case in the diaspora as well.

Benyamin (00:55:49):

Maybe this is the case in the diaspora.

Benyamin (00:55:50):

I don't know what average Armenian-American thinks about bishops who are ruling

Benyamin (00:55:55):

Armenian Church in the United States,

Benyamin (00:55:56):

but well before the 2018 Velvet Revolution.

Benyamin (00:56:00):

There were a lot of criticism,

Benyamin (00:56:01):

a lot of rumors and a lot of talk among ordinary people that,

Benyamin (00:56:05):

oh, look, you know,

Benyamin (00:56:06):

this bishop has restaurants,

Benyamin (00:56:07):

this bishop has business,

Benyamin (00:56:08):

this bishop, I don't know,

Benyamin (00:56:09):

imports cars,

Benyamin (00:56:10):

exports cigarettes,

Benyamin (00:56:11):

he has wife,

Benyamin (00:56:12):

he has children,

Benyamin (00:56:13):

he has mistresses and hell knows what.

Benyamin (00:56:15):

Again, of course,

Benyamin (00:56:16):

all this was like under the surface discussions,

Benyamin (00:56:19):

but it means that for a significant part of Armenian population,

Benyamin (00:56:23):

I'm not sure about numbers,

Benyamin (00:56:24):

it could be 20%,

Benyamin (00:56:25):

it could be 40%,

Benyamin (00:56:26):

but definitely this is not like 1% of marginals.

Benyamin (00:56:30):

Well, before 2018,

Benyamin (00:56:32):

there was a lot of suspicions that high clergy are involved in many things which

Benyamin (00:56:36):

are not in line with spiritual rules of Christ or spiritual rules of the Armenian Church.

Benyamin (00:56:44):

And I think this is one of the reasons why when a government says that I am fighting against

Benyamin (00:56:50):

Leadership of the church government knows much better and let's not forget that

Benyamin (00:56:54):

before 2018 government was part of opposition So they know very well that in early 2000s.

Benyamin (00:57:00):

I don't know in 2007 2010 2013 2015 all these rumors were there that many bishops

Benyamin (00:57:06):

are involved in many many bad things So now the government are trying to send this

Benyamin (00:57:10):

message that look guys you all we all know like this was a very

Benyamin (00:57:15):

badly kept secret that significant part of our leadership of Armenian church were

Benyamin (00:57:20):

involved in very bad things.

Benyamin (00:57:22):

So what is your problem?

Benyamin (00:57:24):

We are just telling publicly or loudly what was discussed in the last, I don't know, decades.

Asbed (00:57:30):

Well, of course, the timing becomes very suspect, right?

Asbed (00:57:33):

Why did you select to do all of this suddenly right now?

Asbed (00:57:37):

And also, why did you start this with complete character assassination?

Benyamin (00:57:42):

So I fully agree, but I'm just telling that we should separate because, again, I'm telling that

Benyamin (00:57:49):

I'm not sure about Soviet time, because Soviet time was different.

Benyamin (00:57:52):

The church was under pressure of the government,

Benyamin (00:57:53):

and also there was a Catholic of Vazgen first,

Benyamin (00:57:56):

who was really revered by almost as a sign about absolute...

Benyamin (00:57:59):

Even at the time,

Hovik (00:58:01):

but for...

Benyamin (00:58:02):

Yes, there were some claims,

Benyamin (00:58:03):

but not the widespread claims.

Benyamin (00:58:05):

Like,

Benyamin (00:58:06):

you cannot compare perception of clergy during Soviet time,

Benyamin (00:58:09):

as far as I know,

Benyamin (00:58:10):

with perception of clergy now.

Benyamin (00:58:12):

So again,

Benyamin (00:58:13):

it will be interesting to see the sociological surveys with a direct question,

Benyamin (00:58:17):

what do you think about leadership of the church?

Asbed (00:58:18):

In the context of this election,

Asbed (00:58:20):

does it make sense for Pashinyan to be doing this against the church,

Asbed (00:58:24):

which has one of the highest ratings of satisfaction?

Benyamin (00:58:28):

Logic tells no.

Benyamin (00:58:29):

But also my understanding is that this prime minister is quite smart in politics,

Benyamin (00:58:34):

maybe not in strategic thinking.

Benyamin (00:58:35):

So I think probably he has his own calculation.

Benyamin (00:58:38):

But if you are asking me, I would not advise to do that.

Benyamin (00:58:41):

From my understanding, this definitely should not help.

Benyamin (00:58:44):

This either will harm or at least would not help for sure.

Benyamin (00:58:48):

But this is my understanding.

Hovik (00:58:50):

I think it's interesting to look at the demographics on the responses.

Hovik (00:58:54):

You know,

Hovik (00:58:55):

the most favorable response for the government came from the 45 to 60 and 61 and

Hovik (00:59:05):

above age groups,

Hovik (00:59:06):

the boomers and the Generation X.

Benyamin (00:59:08):

They were supportive of government or anti-government?

Benyamin (00:59:11):

Supportive of government.

Hovik (00:59:13):

yeah and uh the biggest supporters of the church nearly 82.5 percent of people aged

Hovik (00:59:19):

18 to 28 year olds support uh have a positive view of the church which is that's

Asbed (00:59:25):

pretty amazing isn't it hovick i mean mostly we would think about like the older

Asbed (00:59:29):

people to be traditionalists and stuff like that and here we're seeing a completely

Benyamin (00:59:33):

opposite picture yeah but maybe only one explanation is that older people also they

Benyamin (00:59:38):

were

Benyamin (00:59:39):

Like raised in Soviet Union when they were under atheism ideology, let's not forget also that.

Hovik (00:59:44):

Okay. And also probably many older people are less literate in internet media.

Hovik (00:59:51):

And also,

Hovik (00:59:52):

especially if they reside in the regions,

Hovik (00:59:54):

then they only get state-run media broadcast to them.

Hovik (00:59:57):

So I think that's another factor for the support for Pashinyan.

Hovik (01:00:01):

So the only other topic that I want to address from this poll is two questions

Hovik (01:00:07):

related to the Armenia's foreign strategic partnership and the Russian base.

Hovik (01:00:14):

So one of the questions asked which of the following five powers and the five

Hovik (01:00:19):

powers are US,

Hovik (01:00:20):

EU,

Hovik (01:00:21):

Turkey, Russia and Iran.

Hovik (01:00:23):

So which one

Hovik (01:00:24):

should Armenia form a military strategic alliance with?

Hovik (01:00:28):

The top response was 37.8% for Russia.

Hovik (01:00:34):

This rating,

Hovik (01:00:35):

and according to the same pollster,

Hovik (01:00:36):

this rating has risen every year or every time they have made a poll.

Hovik (01:00:41):

And in July 2024, it was only at 24.3%.

Hovik (01:00:42):

So it has risen from 24.3% to 37.8%.

Hovik (01:00:50):

The second runner-up on this question,

Hovik (01:00:52):

strategic partnership,

Hovik (01:00:53):

was the United States with 18.3% saying that it should be the United States that

Hovik (01:00:58):

Armenia partners with.

Hovik (01:01:00):

And number three is Iran.

Hovik (01:01:02):

So very nice bunch of heterogeneous answers here.

Hovik (01:01:07):

EU was 15.9%.

Asbed (01:01:07):

Talk about diversification, huh, Hovig?

Hovik (01:01:12):

Diversification of our brains.

Hovik (01:01:13):

The EU was 15.9% and Turkey was 5.4%.

Hovik (01:01:17):

That is really surprising.

Hovik (01:01:20):

The other question was that how do you view the Russian military base in Gyumri and

Hovik (01:01:29):

Russian military in Armenia in general?

Hovik (01:01:33):

64% had a positive view and only 32% had a negative opinion.

Hovik (01:01:37):

So Benyamin,

Hovik (01:01:39):

how do you interpret these results and what is driving the positive dynamics of the

Hovik (01:01:45):

view of Russia over the last year?

Benyamin (01:01:48):

Let's start from second question about Gumi military base.

Benyamin (01:01:51):

I think this is clear indication that still a

Benyamin (01:01:56):

There is a fear from Azerbaijan and Turkey for military pressure on attacks against

Benyamin (01:02:00):

Armenia and there is a lack of trust that this normalization process with

Benyamin (01:02:06):

Azerbaijan and Turkey will bring to tangible results.

Benyamin (01:02:11):

Regarding the rising Russia's perception,

Benyamin (01:02:13):

I think even in the recent IRI poll,

Benyamin (01:02:16):

I think last poll was in June 2025,

Benyamin (01:02:17):

there was a decline of the support to the EU membership.

Benyamin (01:02:22):

First time, I think for a few years,

Benyamin (01:02:23):

the EU membership support declined below 50%,

Benyamin (01:02:26):

it was 49%,

Benyamin (01:02:27):

I believe.

Benyamin (01:02:28):

And also there was a slightly rise of Russia.

Benyamin (01:02:33):

I think two aspects here.

Benyamin (01:02:35):

First, probably the successes of Russia in the battlefield in Ukraine.

Benyamin (01:02:41):

sends a message to Armenians that, okay, Russia still has a very strong power.

Benyamin (01:02:44):

He's able to resist the collective West, like 50 or 60 almighty countries in the world.

Benyamin (01:02:49):

They are not able to defeat Russia, which means Russia is still strong.

Benyamin (01:02:52):

And people like somehow,

Benyamin (01:02:54):

especially people who feel not secure,

Benyamin (01:02:57):

it's clear that Armenians feel not secure.

Benyamin (01:02:59):

They are like inclined to have better thinking about the stronger side,

Benyamin (01:03:03):

especially the side which has connections with Armenians,

Benyamin (01:03:06):

et cetera, etc. etc.

Benyamin (01:03:08):

probably answer number one or explanation number one explanation number two

Benyamin (01:03:14):

probably there is some sort of slight erosion of trust in the west like yes west

Benyamin (01:03:21):

picks very good things but at the end of the day west also didn't

Benyamin (01:03:26):

West not only didn't prevent ethnic cleansing,

Benyamin (01:03:28):

but West more or less legitimized ethnic cleansing.

Benyamin (01:03:30):

Because now,

Benyamin (01:03:31):

when you look into the US-Azerbaijan or EU-Azerbaijan relations,

Benyamin (01:03:34):

no one speaks about ethnic cleansing,

Benyamin (01:03:36):

which is a gross violation of international humanitarian law and international law.

Benyamin (01:03:41):

But the US and the EU,

Benyamin (01:03:43):

at least the US until Trump and the EU also now,

Benyamin (01:03:46):

they're claims that they are value-based organizations,

Benyamin (01:03:48):

first of all.

Benyamin (01:03:50):

But they are telling,

Benyamin (01:03:51):

Oh, Azerbaijan is our strategic partner,

Benyamin (01:03:52):

let's speak about Middle Corridor,

Benyamin (01:03:54):

Gulf Oil,

Benyamin (01:03:55):

no one remembering that,

Benyamin (01:03:56):

okay, Azerbaijan was a country who organized gross violation of international law and

Benyamin (01:04:00):

international humanitarian law.

Benyamin (01:04:02):

I think this all send,

Benyamin (01:04:03):

like,

Benyamin (01:04:04):

mixed messaging to Armenians,

Benyamin (01:04:06):

like, okay, what these guys are about.

Asbed (01:04:08):

All right, folks, let's wrap up for today.

Asbed (01:04:10):

That's all the time we have.

Asbed (01:04:12):

I'd like to ask each of you if you have something on your mind that you'd like to

Asbed (01:04:16):

share with our listeners.

Hovik (01:04:18):

Well, we just talked about polls and elections, and we'll be talking a lot about that.

Hovik (01:04:24):

But I don't think,

Hovik (01:04:25):

I think we shouldn't delude ourselves to believe that the elections in 2026 will be

Hovik (01:04:32):

free or fair.

Hovik (01:04:33):

Yes, this is a black pill,

Hovik (01:04:34):

but,

Hovik (01:04:35):

you know, I'm pretty sure that some of it will not be allowed to run.

Hovik (01:04:38):

I'm pretty sure the Moldovan scenario will be repeated.

Hovik (01:04:41):

And I do believe these polls do represent

Hovik (01:04:45):

the view of people but they will be forced to deal with realities such as

Hovik (01:04:52):

candidates being banned from running and an enormous amount of eu money and other

Hovik (01:04:58):

actions to support this regime but i think it's still important to keep our pulse

Hovik (01:05:03):

on the view of the people so i mean i have no illusions about 2026 elections i

Hovik (01:05:09):

think it's going to be important

Hovik (01:05:12):

for post-election processes to have as much legitimacy as possible.

Hovik (01:05:18):

But something tells me that Pashinyan may even go to the point of not recognizing

Hovik (01:05:25):

the results because he can declare a state of emergency as a sort of a circuit

Hovik (01:05:31):

breaker and not recognize the results of the elections.

Hovik (01:05:36):

He has all those tools and he will use every single tool to keep his traitorous regime in power.

Asbed (01:05:42):

Benjamin, what's on your mind?

Benyamin (01:05:44):

I would briefly probably repeat what I said earlier,

Benyamin (01:05:46):

that let's look what happened in between 1988 and 1994.

Benyamin (01:05:49):

From 2025, it seems that this was a terribly situation.

Benyamin (01:05:50):

Earthquake, 30% of the Republic...

Benyamin (01:05:59):

is in ruins,

Benyamin (01:06:00):

war,

Benyamin (01:06:01):

crisis,

Benyamin (01:06:02):

food crisis,

Benyamin (01:06:03):

electricity crisis,

Benyamin (01:06:04):

every crisis,

Benyamin (01:06:05):

but still we emerged victorious.

Benyamin (01:06:08):

So let's look to that and let's understand that we are able to win even on the

Benyamin (01:06:13):

extreme situations.

Benyamin (01:06:16):

And let's not forget about that.

Asbed (01:06:19):

Okay.

Asbed (01:06:20):

Thank you. That was kind of a high note you're leaving us with, so a little unusual for our show.

Asbed (01:06:26):

Thank you, Benyamin, for joining us.

Asbed (01:06:27):

We appreciate your time.

Benyamin (01:06:29):

Thank you.

Asbed (01:06:30):

That was our Week in Review recorded on December 8th, 2025.

Asbed (01:06:33):

We've been talking with Dr.

Asbed (01:06:35):

Benyamin Poghosyan,

Asbed (01:06:36):

who is a senior fellow at APRI Armenia,

Asbed (01:06:39):

a Yerevan-based think tank,

Asbed (01:06:41):

and he's also the chairman of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic

Asbed (01:06:45):

Studies.

Asbed (01:06:46):

More information at podcasts.groong.org/episode-number.

Hovik (01:06:52):

And if you're listening until this point, I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Hovik (01:06:57):

You are a fine Armenian,

Hovik (01:06:58):

and we even have some non-Armenians listening to us who are learning about Armenia.

Hovik (01:07:03):

I really love it. I would never imagine that happening.

Hovik (01:07:06):

So thank you.

Hovik (01:07:08):

Please consider supporting us.

Hovik (01:07:09):

Like, share, comment, and maybe even financially, podcasts.groong.org/donate.

Asbed (01:07:16):

Thank you very much.

Asbed (01:07:17):

We'll talk to you soon.

Asbed (01:07:19):

I'm Hovik Manucharyan from Yerevan.

Asbed (01:07:21):

And I'm Asbed Bedrosian in Los Angeles.

Asbed (01:07:23):

Have a great day.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
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Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
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Benyamin Poghosyan

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