Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Arthur Khachatryan - Foreign Pressure, Attack on Church, Artsakh Repression | Ep 496, Dec 14, 2025

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 496

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Groong Week in Review - December 14, 2025

Topics:
  - Armenia between EU and Russia
  - Church–state confrontation in Armenia
  - Artsakh concessions and return debate
  - Economy, debt, and governance
  - NSS raids Artsakh offices

Guest: Arthur Khachatryan, MP

Hosts:
  - Hovik Manucharyan
  - Asbed Bedrossian

Episode 496 | Recorded: December 15, 2025

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/496

#ArmeniaPolitics #EUvsRussia #ArmenianChurch #Artsakh #Geopolitics


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:06):

Hello, everyone,

Asbed (00:00:07):

and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for December 14,

Asbed (00:00:10):

2025. Today,

Asbed (00:00:12):

we're talking with a member of the Armenian parliament from Hayastan Dashinq,

Asbed (00:00:17):

the Armenia Alliance,

Asbed (00:00:19):

Artur Khachatryan.

Asbed (00:00:20):

Hello, Mr. Khachatryan.

Asbed (00:00:22):

Welcome back to the Groong Podcast.

Hovik (00:00:24):

Let's start our discussion with the obscene,

Hovik (00:00:34):

I would say,

Hovik (00:00:35):

flirtation that the Pashinyan regime is currently engaged in with the West and at

Hovik (00:00:42):

the same time enjoying

Hovik (00:00:44):

um Russian tolerance uh for lack of a you know that and that's a mild word that i'm

Hovik (00:00:50):

using last week Pashinyan flew to Germany on an official visit followed by a

Hovik (00:00:54):

working visit to Russia for a EAEU meeting i believe

Hovik (00:00:59):

In Germany, Pashinyan had a number of meetings with German leaders.

Hovik (00:01:03):

Mostly it was protocol.

Hovik (00:01:05):

It included meetings with Mertz, Steinmeier.

Hovik (00:01:08):

He visited the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and even met the,

Hovik (00:01:12):

and I'm going to use quotes heavily here,

Hovik (00:01:14):

Armenian community representatives of Hamburg.

Hovik (00:01:19):

German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz described the process as a historic opportunity

Hovik (00:01:25):

for Armenia's EU path

Hovik (00:01:27):

and even a model for other regions taking into account that u.s officials link

Hovik (00:01:34):

peace with connectivity especially east-west connectivity so as part of the trip

Hovik (00:01:38):

deal the Mertz statement seems to reinforce narrative that peace eu alignment and

Hovik (00:01:45):

transport corridors are now treated as a single package by western partners what

Hovik (00:01:51):

was the point of the Pashinyan visit to Germany and what what's in it for Germany

Hovik (00:01:56):

and what's in it for Armenia?

Arthur (00:01:57):

Well, I wouldn't separate Germany from the European Union.

Arthur (00:02:02):

Today,

Arthur (00:02:03):

when the antagonism or hostility between the European Union and Russia has reached

Arthur (00:02:09):

its apogee,

Arthur (00:02:11):

maybe since the Cold War,

Arthur (00:02:14):

obviously,

Arthur (00:02:15):

the West's policy will be dictated towards creating extra headache for the

Arthur (00:02:20):

Russians.

Arthur (00:02:22):

And that's why we see that Western Europe supports,

Arthur (00:02:27):

promotes all kinds of statements that say that any country,

Arthur (00:02:36):

in this particular case,

Arthur (00:02:37):

Armenia,

Arthur (00:02:39):

drifts away from the European Union.

Arthur (00:02:41):

So Pashinyan manages to

Arthur (00:02:44):

play to be in good relations let me say this way both with European Union and with

Arthur (00:02:50):

Russia because obviously when you say my goal is joining EU then saying but my but

Arthur (00:02:58):

leaving your Eurasian Economic Union is not my goal sends conflicting messages but

Arthur (00:03:05):

both messages please respectively the Western Europe and the Russian Federation

Arthur (00:03:15):

I was surprised to hear that Armenia's model is the,

Arthur (00:03:20):

it can be a model,

Arthur (00:03:22):

Armenia's path can be a model for strengthening eight countries and European

Arthur (00:03:29):

Union's cooperation because so far the model was Ukraine and Moldova and Georgia.

Arthur (00:03:38):

We see what's going on in Georgia, what happened in Georgia there.

Arthur (00:03:43):

the change of their course.

Arthur (00:03:45):

We saw the elections in Moldova and we saw what's happening in Ukraine.

Arthur (00:03:53):

Now, everything seems to be clear with European Union because,

Arthur (00:03:57):

again,

Arthur (00:04:00):

anything,

Arthur (00:04:01):

anything that causes or may cause a slight headache for the Russians will be

Arthur (00:04:07):

welcomed.

Arthur (00:04:08):

If I were the Western Union, I would do exactly the same.

Arthur (00:04:12):

exactly the same.

Arthur (00:04:14):

Now,

Arthur (00:04:15):

why Russia feels okay with Pashinyan,

Arthur (00:04:19):

that can be,

Arthur (00:04:20):

that needs a little bit more thorough analysis because we see that,

Arthur (00:04:27):

we didn't see and we haven't seen anything from 2020 showing that Russia is not

Arthur (00:04:36):

happy with Pashinyan.

Arthur (00:04:37):

Of course, we've seen on the level of Maria Zakharova, but not on a higher level.

Arthur (00:04:44):

Imagine if someone else was in Pashinyan's office,

Arthur (00:04:49):

was in Prime Minister's office,

Arthur (00:04:52):

then trying to,

Arthur (00:04:54):

if someone will try to counterbalance the pressure from Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:04:59):

will try to find a mediator to ask Azerbaijan to loosen the saddles,

Arthur (00:05:07):

and will go to Putin's office.

Arthur (00:05:10):

Obviously, because today,

Arthur (00:05:12):

even though there are today,

Arthur (00:05:13):

there are some issues between Russia and Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:05:19):

Russia and Turkey.

Arthur (00:05:20):

Nevertheless, Russian Federation can be the country that has leverage on Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:05:27):

And the president Putin will face a dilemma.

Arthur (00:05:31):

OK, we turn down the request from Armenia.

Arthur (00:05:35):

or to try to press or persuade Azerbaijan to behave.

Arthur (00:05:42):

Does Russia need that today?

Arthur (00:05:44):

Obviously not.

Arthur (00:05:46):

Obviously not. They depend a lot on Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:05:49):

though recently they managed to send the trains from Russia to Iran,

Arthur (00:05:55):

bypassing Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:05:57):

and now they build this Volgodonsk Channel trying to bypass

Arthur (00:06:04):

Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:06:06):

But nevertheless, they still depend on Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:06:08):

They still depend very much on Turkey.

Arthur (00:06:11):

So they have to tolerate Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:06:15):

This means they can always justify their inactivity with policies of the government of Armenia.

Arthur (00:06:25):

So this is why Pashinyan is the best candidate for Putin as well.

Hovik (00:06:30):

We recently interviewed an expert in oil energy and water and so forth to talk

Hovik (00:06:36):

about Venezuela and he hinted that there might be some kind of a grand agreement

Hovik (00:06:41):

between the united states and uh Russia in division of spheres of influence and the

Hovik (00:06:47):

U.S. wants Russia, Iran out of south America in exchange for concessions that the u.s

Hovik (00:06:53):

will give

Hovik (00:06:55):

um to uh Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere so we're wondering i mean maybe this is

Hovik (00:07:02):

speculation but uh do you think that uh the caucuses one way or another uh is up

Hovik (00:07:09):

also on that table uh and absolutely who wants it more you know Russia or united

Hovik (00:07:15):

states because with trip we're seeing signals that the us is interested

Arthur (00:07:19):

well U.S. is interested obviously Russia is interested Iran is interested and

Arthur (00:07:25):

European union is interested but the U.S. Russia and western union are global

Arthur (00:07:31):

players so they do not look at the map they look at the globe so for a for a

Arthur (00:07:37):

concession in uh in south America

Arthur (00:07:41):

russians may ask for something anywhere in the world you know northern from the

Arthur (00:07:47):

Arctic circle in Africa in the far east in caucasus in Central Asia so uh i wouldn't

Arthur (00:07:55):

be surprised if it becomes evident that Caucasus the value of Caucasus without the

Arthur (00:08:04):

Central Asia is not that big uh so i wouldn't be surprised if one day we see

Arthur (00:08:11):

a leakage or any sort of information that Caucasus is on the negotiation table.

Arthur (00:08:19):

And this actually can be one of the reasons why there is controversy between

Arthur (00:08:25):

European Union and the United States.

Arthur (00:08:28):

It's not only Ukraine, but it's also southern eastern borders of the European Union.

Arthur (00:08:35):

But I really don't know who will get a concession for what.

Arthur (00:08:40):

so... obviously you know the attacks on tankers show that mr trump is very he

Arthur (00:08:48):

wants to strengthen his position in the south in south America because previous

Arthur (00:08:54):

like two years ago like about 10 years ago we saw that Russia tried to return back

Arthur (00:08:59):

to the pacific ocean to Atlantic ocean excuse me with having a naval base in

Hovik (00:09:08):

So on the topic of the EU integration,

Hovik (00:09:09):

you correctly stated,

Hovik (00:09:11):

and I'm quoting Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:09:13):

he said,

Hovik (00:09:14):

leaving the Eurasian Economic Union,

Hovik (00:09:16):

EAEU,

Hovik (00:09:17):

is not Armenia's goal,

Hovik (00:09:18):

but EU membership is.

Hovik (00:09:21):

Given that these two alliances are effectively mutually exclusive,

Hovik (00:09:25):

does this essentially mean that Armenia essentially is...

Hovik (00:09:31):

willing to leave the EA-EU if it is offered essentially EU membership?

Hovik (00:09:36):

And how realistic is Armenia's prospect to join the EU?

Hovik (00:09:38):

We talked about it many times,

Hovik (00:09:40):

but Pashinyan is setting the agenda,

Hovik (00:09:42):

so we have to ask the question.

Hovik (00:09:47):

Just looking at the map, Turkey is not part of the EU yet.

Hovik (00:09:52):

It has been trying to be part of the EU since the 1980s.

Hovik (00:09:56):

Georgia is definitely not ready yet.

Hovik (00:10:00):

So how is Armenia going to jump over Turkey and Georgia and join the EU if those

Hovik (00:10:07):

two, you know,

Hovik (00:10:08):

am I missing something here?

Hovik (00:10:09):

Maybe they have figured out a way to teleport, you know, matter across, you know.

Arthur (00:10:15):

Well, I think that both EU and Armenia realize that they understand that Armenia's

Arthur (00:10:21):

membership in EU is not realistic, at least in the foreseeable future.

Arthur (00:10:28):

Armenia doesn't satisfy the criteria, all the criteria for EU membership.

Arthur (00:10:38):

Other than that,

Arthur (00:10:40):

correctly mentioned above the map,

Arthur (00:10:42):

the eastern border of the European Union and Armenia,

Arthur (00:10:47):

thousands of miles.

Arthur (00:10:49):

Plus, there is Turkey in the pecking order, Ukraine, Moldova.

Arthur (00:10:55):

I think one or two Balkan states are still there.

Arthur (00:10:59):

But,

Arthur (00:11:00):

again,

Arthur (00:11:01):

Europe,

Arthur (00:11:03):

in this situation,

Arthur (00:11:06):

when they are at war with Russia or a proxy war,

Arthur (00:11:12):

they would like to see a government in this part of the world that can create

Arthur (00:11:17):

headaches for Russia.

Arthur (00:11:20):

that can create headaches for Russia uh and Russia is more or less okay quiet as

Arthur (00:11:27):

long as there is no capital damage to Russian interests in this part of the world

Arthur (00:11:33):

and so far there hasn't been any capital damage to Russian interest in this part of

Arthur (00:11:38):

the world you mentioned the trip the corridor that would link to Azerbaijan okay so

Arthur (00:11:45):

There is a phrase, mutual benefits.

Arthur (00:11:47):

Armenia allows Azerbaijan to pass unhindered from Nakhijevan to Azerbaijan and the other way.

Arthur (00:11:56):

Instead, it gets other privileges, other benefits.

Arthur (00:12:01):

So what are these benefits?

Arthur (00:12:03):

So far, we haven't seen any signal that Azerbaijan is going to re-operate Sadarak-Yeraskh Railway

Arthur (00:12:13):

or Azerbaijan thinks about opening up direct communication between Armenia and

Arthur (00:12:17):

Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:12:18):

neither railway nor automobile.

Arthur (00:12:21):

Instead,

Arthur (00:12:22):

they allowed transit for grain from Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:12:28):

then Georgia and Armenia,

Arthur (00:12:31):

and also it allowed Russians to use its territory for transit of grain from Russia

Arthur (00:12:37):

to Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:12:38):

then to Georgia.

Arthur (00:12:40):

Basically, what does it mean?

Arthur (00:12:42):

Okay, Armenia gets transit from Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:12:45):

you know,

Arthur (00:12:46):

against corridor that it provides to Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:12:50):

but the originator of the transit of the cargo is Russia.

Arthur (00:12:55):

So proper functioning of trip depends a lot on Russia,

Arthur (00:13:01):

if not 100%,

Arthur (00:13:02):

because we understand that buying grain from Kazakhstan can be pricey.

Arthur (00:13:11):

can be really pricing.

Arthur (00:13:13):

So economically, it doesn't make sense in the long term or in substantial quantities.

Arthur (00:13:20):

So I can understand when government subsidizes part of imports,

Arthur (00:13:25):

when government uses its links,

Arthur (00:13:31):

its connections with Georgia,

Arthur (00:13:33):

I don't know,

Arthur (00:13:35):

asking them not to charge transit tariffs for a single cargo from Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:13:40):

but in the long run,

Arthur (00:13:41):

this cannot be sustainable.

Hovik (00:13:43):

So it's a paradox, okay?

Arthur (00:13:46):

Yeah, so basically, it's really a paradox, okay?

Arthur (00:13:50):

By the trip,

Arthur (00:13:52):

the West,

Arthur (00:13:54):

the U.S.,

Arthur (00:13:55):

tries to kick out Russia from this region,

Arthur (00:13:58):

but the functionality of the trip depends on the goodwill of Russia.

Arthur (00:14:03):

And let me remind,

Arthur (00:14:04):

okay,

Arthur (00:14:05):

Pashinyan deliberately allowed Azerbaijan to conquer Reutzach,

Arthur (00:14:14):

not to give,

Arthur (00:14:15):

not to implement the requirement of the ninth point of the trilateral statement,

Arthur (00:14:23):

ceasefire statement of 10th of November,

Arthur (00:14:26):

2020, that says that Armenia allows Azerbaijan

Arthur (00:14:32):

Well, it allows Azerbaijan to travel from Nakhijivan to Azerbaijan and vice versa.

Arthur (00:14:36):

It ensures the safety in Russia guarantees the security of the transportation.

Arthur (00:14:42):

So to kick Russians out,

Arthur (00:14:45):

Pashinan deliberately,

Arthur (00:14:46):

deliberately allowed Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse and to occupy Artsakh.

Arthur (00:14:53):

But today we see the situation.

Arthur (00:14:56):

And it's not surprising that

Arthur (00:14:59):

out of all ministers,

Arthur (00:15:01):

Minister of Economy is particularly cautious when he speaks about Russia-Armenian

Arthur (00:15:08):

relations because he understands what a heavy blow it will be for Armenia if a

Arthur (00:15:13):

black cat runs between Armenia and Russia,

Arthur (00:15:18):

even though he's a deputy chair of a civil contract party.

Hovik (00:15:23):

So just today, Arab Mirzoyan was in Brussels.

Hovik (00:15:27):

The agenda,

Hovik (00:15:28):

when published by the EU Foreign Affairs Council,

Hovik (00:15:33):

listed,

Hovik (00:15:34):

didn't mention Armenia in any part of the agenda.

Hovik (00:15:37):

But it said there will be an informal exchange over breakfast with the foreign

Hovik (00:15:42):

minister of Armenia,

Hovik (00:15:45):

Arad Mirzoyan.

Hovik (00:15:46):

The topic of the informal exchange was not listed in the agenda,

Hovik (00:15:50):

but the Latvian foreign ministry leaked that this was about Armenia's 2026 June

Hovik (00:15:56):

elections.

Hovik (00:15:58):

Later, I believe EU officials also confirmed that they had discussions about the June elections.

Hovik (00:16:04):

So I want to ask you,

Hovik (00:16:08):

Besides having probably a very nice breakfast at the expense of EU taxpayers,

Hovik (00:16:12):

what did Mirzoyan get from this informal meeting?

Hovik (00:16:16):

We know that Kaja Kallas last week or the week before that had requested that Armenia

Hovik (00:16:22):

join anti-Russia sanctions.

Hovik (00:16:24):

Is that also on the table?

Hovik (00:16:27):

And...

Hovik (00:16:30):

yeah just uh wanted to get your thoughts on these developments and what is the eu

Hovik (00:16:34):

doing um i mean we understand Moldova right you know Moldova was in a different

Hovik (00:16:39):

class because Moldova is uh a candidate for for eu uh so and it gets a lot of

Hovik (00:16:46):

funding for the army is not even doesn't even have candidate status and here is the

Hovik (00:16:50):

eu talking about supporting uh you know or fighting uh hybrid warfare uh against

Hovik (00:16:57):

Russia what are your thoughts about all this

Arthur (00:17:01):

Well, I think Mirzoyan didn't enjoy the breakfast because,

Arthur (00:17:07):

as you correctly mentioned,

Arthur (00:17:09):

the voices from European Union that demand Armenia to take a tougher position

Arthur (00:17:14):

against Russia are becoming more and louder and louder.

Arthur (00:17:19):

And we had warned Pashinyan that his policy will yield to a situation when he had

Arthur (00:17:25):

to choose either or.

Arthur (00:17:28):

because despite he says that the foreign policy is balanced and is getting balanced

Arthur (00:17:36):

uh it's interesting balanced and becoming even more balanced nevertheless uh now

Arthur (00:17:46):

europeans basically will ask him to to to decide because uh

Arthur (00:17:54):

Supporting Armenia against what?

Arthur (00:17:57):

What did they get tangible from this support?

Arthur (00:18:03):

Well, of course, Armenia hasn't received anything close to 2.6 billion in assistance in aid promised

Arthur (00:18:11):

by Mr.

Arthur (00:18:12):

Charles Michel back in 21.

Arthur (00:18:15):

But nevertheless, we see at least political support.

Arthur (00:18:20):

And I think during this nice breakfast,

Arthur (00:18:24):

the EU officials would ask the Armenian government to decide.

Arthur (00:18:29):

If the Armenian government decides to show that it's truly a democratic country

Arthur (00:18:38):

with European aspirations,

Arthur (00:18:40):

basically meaning that they are going to try to diminish the Russians' influence in

Arthur (00:18:46):

this region,

Arthur (00:18:47):

then European Union will do everything possible to ensure Pashinyan's victory in the elections.

Arthur (00:18:56):

And this basically means looking at Romania's elections with eyes wide shut.

Arthur (00:19:03):

Because what Pashinyan does, it's just beyond imagination.

Arthur (00:19:09):

Incriminating Archbishop Arshak Khachatryan for

Arthur (00:19:15):

planting drug into someone's pocket in June, 2018.

Arthur (00:19:24):

You know, this is not funny.

Asbed (00:19:26):

This is- It's silly.

Asbed (00:19:27):

It's absolutely silly.

Arthur (00:19:29):

It's silly and it's cynical.

Arthur (00:19:31):

It's just disgusting.

Arthur (00:19:34):

and starting a criminal case against Arshak Srbazan just based on the testimony

Arthur (00:19:42):

from someone who is Pashinyan's ally and using pretrial detention without and even

Arthur (00:19:50):

prohibiting visits to Arshak Srbazan.

Arthur (00:19:54):

And when we see that,

Arthur (00:19:55):

and we didn't see or listen anything from Brussels or from mean European capitals,

Arthur (00:20:05):

This is not acceptable.

Arthur (00:20:07):

And when we meet with the European officials,

Arthur (00:20:10):

I always quote Martin Luther King,

Arthur (00:20:14):

you know,

Arthur (00:20:15):

at the end of the day,

Arthur (00:20:16):

we will not remember the silence of our,

Arthur (00:20:18):

the words of our enemies,

Arthur (00:20:19):

but the silence of our friends.

Arthur (00:20:21):

So by supporting Pashinyan in the long run, European bureaucracy in Brussels ventures

Arthur (00:20:30):

completely, completely distorting the relations between Armenia and Europe.

Asbed (00:20:36):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:20:37):

Um,

Asbed (00:20:38):

Arthur Pashinyan flew directly from Germany to Russia for a Eurasian Economic Union

Asbed (00:20:44):

meeting and Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk said that some Russian companies have

Asbed (00:20:50):

become wary of doing business with Armenia.

Asbed (00:20:53):

He pointed to the sharp drop in trade turnover between the two countries from 2024 to 2025.

Asbed (00:21:01):

It's gone down from $12.5 billion, essentially, to $6 billion.

Asbed (00:21:06):

He also said that Armenia's EU membership,

Asbed (00:21:08):

which we talked about,

Asbed (00:21:10):

is incompatible with the Eurasian Economic Union.

Asbed (00:21:13):

And we heard Pashinyan himself acknowledge that.

Asbed (00:21:17):

Can you explain a little bit what does Russian companies being wary...

Asbed (00:21:22):

of doing business with Armenia mean?

Asbed (00:21:24):

Are Russian businesses no longer trusting Armenian companies as business partners?

Asbed (00:21:29):

And is Armenia considered not a reliable member in the Eurasian Economic Union?

Arthur (00:21:35):

Well, first of all, let's refer to the Armenian government's attempt to seize the electric grid.

Arthur (00:21:48):

This is a Russian company,

Arthur (00:21:49):

Russian capital,

Arthur (00:21:51):

though owned by ethnic Armenia,

Arthur (00:21:54):

by Samuel Karapetian,

Arthur (00:21:55):

but it's a huge investment from the Russian businessman.

Arthur (00:21:59):

And now we see the government wants to seize their business,

Arthur (00:22:04):

even though there is a clear warning from arbitration court in Stockholm.

Arthur (00:22:10):

so this is one second i'm repeating myself but uh that's it's happening exactly

Arthur (00:22:19):

it's happening what that exactly warned against uh west and Russia one day will not

Arthur (00:22:26):

tolerate playing onto strings

Arthur (00:22:30):

and we'll say Armenia to decide.

Arthur (00:22:32):

It goes to west or it goes to north.

Arthur (00:22:34):

We've heard close from European Union recently,

Arthur (00:22:39):

okay, join the sanctions against Russia if you want to be a member of the European

Arthur (00:22:43):

family.

Arthur (00:22:45):

And we heard once again from Russia saying that you cannot simultaneously be in

Arthur (00:22:52):

European Union, the Eurasian Economic Union.

Arthur (00:22:55):

These are...

Arthur (00:22:57):

speaking statistics these are uh or probability theory these are mutually exclusive

Arthur (00:23:02):

events so it's not surprising that pashinyan flew directly from Germany to Russia

Arthur (00:23:12):

trying to persuade the Russian authorities that armenia is not planning to leave

Arthur (00:23:18):

eurasian economic union because we understand that one of the reasons

Arthur (00:23:22):

why Russia... Let me put it in slightly different terms.

Asbed (00:23:28):

Right now, Russia, I think, has bigger fish to fry, so they're a little busy.

Asbed (00:23:33):

At what point do you think Armenia will have no choice but to make a choice, which way it goes?

Asbed (00:23:38):

How long are the two poles going to allow Armenia to do all this fence-sitting and

Asbed (00:23:45):

hedging its bets,

Asbed (00:23:46):

et cetera?

Arthur (00:23:46):

Well, I think we understand that Armenia's fate is decided in Ukraine.

Arthur (00:23:51):

it decided in Ukraine, okay?

Arthur (00:23:53):

When the war in Ukraine finishes and when the party,

Arthur (00:23:56):

the US and Russia come to a deal that satisfies both parties,

Arthur (00:24:02):

then I think Russia will seriously look to south.

Arthur (00:24:08):

And by the way,

Arthur (00:24:09):

okay,

Arthur (00:24:10):

if the deal pleases Russia,

Arthur (00:24:12):

then Armenia will see a tougher pressure from Russia.

Arthur (00:24:17):

If the deal is in favor of Ukraine, then we'll see a harder pressure from Europe.

Arthur (00:24:23):

So that's why I'm saying, okay, Armenia's fate is being decided in Ukraine.

Hovik (00:24:31):

Arthur,

Hovik (00:24:32):

Pashinyan's clash with the Armenian church,

Hovik (00:24:35):

you know, it has shifted narratives several times,

Hovik (00:24:38):

and we've been chronicling it on our podcast,

Hovik (00:24:41):

but he first claimed that the Catholicos violated his own vow of celibacy.

Hovik (00:24:49):

saying he was speaking as a concerned private citizen who by the way is using NSS

Hovik (00:24:55):

agents to terrorize bishops then he escalated the rhetoric and portrayed the

Hovik (00:25:00):

Catholicos as a foreign agent literally accusing the Catholicos of providing

Hovik (00:25:05):

reports to the KGB or the Russian FSB.

Hovik (00:25:09):

Days later,

Hovik (00:25:10):

Pashinyan reframed the issue again,

Hovik (00:25:11):

and that's last week,

Hovik (00:25:14):

arguing that the Catholicos had promised in 2011 to reform church canon law,

Hovik (00:25:21):

but had failed to do so.

Hovik (00:25:23):

And on that basis,

Hovik (00:25:24):

Pashinyan last week presented a government-driven quote-unquote reform roadmap.

Hovik (00:25:30):

The proposal calls for Catholicos Garegin to resign,

Hovik (00:25:34):

the appointment of a caretaker vicar,

Hovik (00:25:37):

the drafting of a new canon law that would restrict clergy from political life.

Hovik (00:25:42):

It also includes state-style vetting of clergy, a tax refund scheme,

Hovik (00:25:49):

Government provided social benefits for the clergy.

Hovik (00:25:52):

I'm assuming this is to sweeten the deal for the traitor clergy who joined Pashinyan.

Hovik (00:25:58):

The process would conclude with the election of a new Catholicos under these new laws.

Hovik (00:26:04):

Shall we call this the Armenian Pashistolic Church, if I may be so blunt?

Hovik (00:26:11):

But what are your...

Hovik (00:26:14):

impressions about Pashinyan's intentions,

Hovik (00:26:16):

the dynamics and the evolution of those intentions,

Hovik (00:26:20):

this whole commotion against the church and his latest proposal.

Arthur (00:26:24):

Look,

Arthur (00:26:26):

His anti-church campaign has passed through several stages, as you correctly mentioned.

Arthur (00:26:31):

So about a month in the half ago,

Arthur (00:26:33):

he says,

Arthur (00:26:34):

we shall find someone,

Arthur (00:26:36):

a married priest,

Arthur (00:26:37):

Kahana,

Arthur (00:26:38):

to be a caretaker and then have the elections of Clovis.

Arthur (00:26:42):

Now he says, we have to follow the canons of the church, so we have to...

Arthur (00:26:48):

nominate a bishop as a caretaker because we are defectors from the higher ranks of the church.

Arthur (00:26:54):

But that's not actually, his point is not that.

Arthur (00:26:58):

His major goal is to control the church because church is one of the pan-Armenian

Arthur (00:27:05):

institutes that obviously doesn't like Pashinyan's policy.

Arthur (00:27:12):

And plus, one of the institutes who says that the issue of Artsakh

Arthur (00:27:18):

is enclosed,

Arthur (00:27:19):

and the people of Artsakh have the right for a collective and safe return to their

Arthur (00:27:25):

homes in Artsakh.

Arthur (00:27:27):

So Pashinyan started his campaign against the church right on the next day when his

Arthur (00:27:35):

holiness participated in the Swiss Peace Initiative in Switzerland.

Arthur (00:27:40):

to address this issue.

Arthur (00:27:42):

And it was immediately followed after the instruction that Pashinyan received from

Arthur (00:27:50):

Pashazade in Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:27:53):

He tried to, what happened?

Arthur (00:27:55):

Okay, he tried to discredit the church first.

Arthur (00:27:58):

Okay,

Arthur (00:27:59):

he accused one of the bishops,

Arthur (00:28:01):

it turned out later on gave the name that it's Arshak Srbazan with having

Arthur (00:28:07):

uh you know all these affairs with uh his uncle's wife and so on that there's no

Arthur (00:28:13):

justification but instead it was a gross violation of privacy and it was disgusting

Arthur (00:28:19):

and i'm surprised that the europeans tolerate that without raising any concern if

Arthur (00:28:23):

this happened in the Europe i assume was gonna happen uh

Arthur (00:28:28):

Pashinyan, remember his last statement, and we see that in several churches, okay?

Arthur (00:28:33):

Having the flag in the church, playing Armenia's national anthem before the morning service.

Arthur (00:28:41):

So Pashinyan was to transform his own conflict with the church,

Arthur (00:28:47):

his own attacks against the church,

Arthur (00:28:50):

as a conflict between the state and the church.

Arthur (00:28:57):

And obviously he will say that the church cannot be against the state.

Arthur (00:29:04):

So this is beautiful because no one can say,

Arthur (00:29:06):

no, we don't want Armenian flag in front of the church.

Arthur (00:29:10):

We don't want Armenian anthem to be played anywhere.

Arthur (00:29:13):

But the core idea is to contradict,

Arthur (00:29:16):

okay,

Arthur (00:29:17):

to say that church and the state,

Arthur (00:29:20):

not himself,

Arthur (00:29:21):

the state itself,

Arthur (00:29:23):

you know, cannot be,

Arthur (00:29:24):

cannot have antagonistic relations.

Arthur (00:29:27):

Because remember,

Arthur (00:29:28):

several times he quoting,

Arthur (00:29:31):

not quoting, but referring to King Bab saying that,

Arthur (00:29:35):

you know,

Arthur (00:29:36):

Armenia's kingdom was on its rise and the church everything changed.

Arthur (00:29:44):

And the church killed King Bab.

Arthur (00:29:46):

So basically church gets stronger when the secular authorities, when the kings become weaker.

Arthur (00:29:54):

So it's in the church's interest to have a weak state to be powerful instead.

Arthur (00:29:59):

Okay. So now he will say,

Arthur (00:30:00):

I want,

Arthur (00:30:01):

you know, want church to obey to the secular authorities,

Arthur (00:30:05):

to the government.

Arthur (00:30:07):

Obviously this means that he needs to control the church.

Arthur (00:30:13):

Because again, church is one of the institutes.

Arthur (00:30:17):

First, it enjoys very high support from the public.

Arthur (00:30:21):

And second,

Arthur (00:30:22):

at least on Artsakh issue,

Arthur (00:30:24):

at least on genocide issue,

Arthur (00:30:26):

at least on Pan-Armenian issues,

Arthur (00:30:28):

the church's position differs from the position of Pashinyan.

Arthur (00:30:34):

So this is the issue.

Arthur (00:30:36):

And of course, he wants to discredit, discredit and then to control.

Arthur (00:30:40):

That's the whole issue.

Hovik (00:30:42):

How is any of this constitutional?

Hovik (00:30:44):

What constitutional ground does Pashinyan have to stand on?

Arthur (00:30:47):

Oh, this is a very good question because the clergyman, as anyone...

Arthur (00:30:54):

can participate in the political life of the country,

Arthur (00:30:57):

they are citizens,

Arthur (00:30:59):

and no government can forbid a citizen to express their position on the

Arthur (00:31:06):

government's policies.

Arthur (00:31:08):

Okay,

Arthur (00:31:09):

church itself is separated from the government,

Arthur (00:31:13):

but this doesn't mean that the clergy,

Arthur (00:31:16):

like anyone,

Arthur (00:31:17):

okay, like farmers,

Arthur (00:31:19):

poblaries,

Arthur (00:31:20):

scientists,

Arthur (00:31:22):

artists, they can express their position and participate in political lives,

Arthur (00:31:27):

actively or passively going to their polling station,

Arthur (00:31:30):

okay?

Arthur (00:31:31):

Okay.

Arthur (00:31:32):

So when Catholicos as a citizen says that the issue,

Arthur (00:31:36):

we cannot have the Artsakh page closed,

Arthur (00:31:40):

doesn't mean that church as an institute tries to control the secular authorities.

Arthur (00:31:47):

But when Pashinyan,

Arthur (00:31:49):

as the prime minister,

Arthur (00:31:52):

speaks about reforming the church,

Arthur (00:31:55):

pretending that he is Martin Lutheran,

Arthur (00:31:59):

You know, this means gross violation of the Constitution.

Arthur (00:32:03):

When you attacked Armenian electric grids,

Arthur (00:32:07):

okay,

Arthur (00:32:08):

this immediately sends signals to,

Arthur (00:32:10):

especially to the Western countries,

Arthur (00:32:12):

that, okay,

Arthur (00:32:14):

the government tries to expropriate

Arthur (00:32:17):

private property private investments and we see net outflow for indirect investment

Arthur (00:32:23):

so uh to shut the voices from the west he says i'm trying to diminish Russia's

Arthur (00:32:29):

influence in Armenia and immediately we've seen that the voices the concerns that

Arthur (00:32:36):

okay the government cannot just expropriate private property the the volume went

Arthur (00:32:43):

down now to prevent the west

Arthur (00:32:46):

And Western churches,

Arthur (00:32:48):

from saying that you cannot behave like that against a church,

Arthur (00:32:54):

it says the church is under Russia's influence.

Arthur (00:32:57):

But if this was true,

Arthur (00:32:59):

there would be at least one single case,

Arthur (00:33:02):

not in court,

Arthur (00:33:03):

but at least one single case at the investigative committee saying that a clergyman

Arthur (00:33:08):

is Russia's spy.

Arthur (00:33:11):

But the signal is, okay, we want to diminish the Russia's influence in Armenia.

Arthur (00:33:16):

This is why shut your eyes,

Arthur (00:33:19):

close your ears,

Arthur (00:33:21):

close your mouth,

Arthur (00:33:22):

and we'll clean Armenia from Russia's influence.

Arthur (00:33:25):

This is the name of the game.

Asbed (00:33:27):

Arthur,

Asbed (00:33:28):

I want to talk a little bit more about the right of Artsakh Armenians to return to

Asbed (00:33:34):

their homeland.

Asbed (00:33:35):

I don't want to rehash all of the concessions that Pashinyan has made over the last five years.

Asbed (00:33:41):

Basically, we went from 2019 to 2023.

Asbed (00:33:44):

We went from Artsakh is Armenia, to Artsakh is Azerbaijan, Yev Verch.

Asbed (00:33:50):

But Azerbaijan hasn't stopped this narrative of Western Azerbaijanis who want to,

Asbed (00:33:55):

quote unquote,

Asbed (00:33:56):

return to Armenia from the 90s on.

Asbed (00:33:59):

And there's even a group in Baku at this point that is sanctioned by Aliyev and

Asbed (00:34:05):

trying to participate in European conclaves to talk about this.

Asbed (00:34:11):

Now,

Asbed (00:34:12):

there is the issue,

Asbed (00:34:13):

of course,

Asbed (00:34:14):

of Azerbaijan forcibly removing almost half a million Armenians from its own

Asbed (00:34:20):

cities, Baku,

Asbed (00:34:21):

Sumgait, Shahumyan,

Asbed (00:34:22):

and of course,

Asbed (00:34:23):

in 2023,

Asbed (00:34:24):

complete ethnic cleansing.

Asbed (00:34:25):

This is recognized by genocide scholars.

Asbed (00:34:28):

that this was a classic ethnic cleansing of 150,000 Armenians.

Asbed (00:34:33):

But interestingly, there is nothing back from Armenia.

Asbed (00:34:37):

He never talks about it.

Asbed (00:34:38):

In fact, Pashinyan says that even talking about this issue is a national security threat.

Asbed (00:34:45):

Interestingly, this past week in Germany,

Asbed (00:34:47):

he so-called offered that Azerbaijan should drop its Western Azerbaijan narrative

Asbed (00:34:55):

and Armenia would stop talking about Artsakh's right of return.

Asbed (00:35:00):

How can Pashinyan offer to Aliyev something that he doesn't have,

Asbed (00:35:04):

the right to drop the rights of the Artsakh Armenians?

Asbed (00:35:08):

Let me just say Armenia,

Asbed (00:35:09):

to me,

Asbed (00:35:11):

Armenia was just a guarantor of the security of Artsakh Armenians.

Asbed (00:35:14):

And we saw what happens when Pashinyan abdicated from that role and he blew it,

Asbed (00:35:20):

ethnic cleansing.

Asbed (00:35:21):

He doesn't have the right to represent them as far as I understand.

Arthur (00:35:25):

Well, true.

Arthur (00:35:26):

I agree with you.

Arthur (00:35:27):

Absolutely. Remember back in 2018, when he became the prime minister,

Arthur (00:35:32):

His first trip was to Stepanakert,

Arthur (00:35:33):

and in Stepanakert he said,

Arthur (00:35:37):

Artsakh has to participate in the negotiations.

Arthur (00:35:39):

I don't have the right to represent the people of Artsakh because the people of

Arthur (00:35:44):

Artsakh haven't voted for me.

Arthur (00:35:46):

Of course, it's a very good justification, but in reality it was a

Arthur (00:35:52):

attempt or that was a direct challenge to the Mies group co-chairs and it was aimed

Arthur (00:35:59):

at torpedoing the negotiations in the framework of under the auspices of Mies group

Arthur (00:36:04):

co-chairs but he said several times I haven't been you know the people of Artsakh

Arthur (00:36:09):

haven't authorized me to represent them they haven't voted for me I do not have any

Arthur (00:36:14):

link to Artsakh

Arthur (00:36:15):

but and you correctly mentioned that Armenia's mission in this issue in

Arthur (00:36:22):

Artsakh-Azerbaijan conflict was guaranteeing the security of the people of Artsakh

Arthur (00:36:27):

and leveling the bargaining powers of Armenians and then the Azeris.

Arthur (00:36:33):

So today,

Arthur (00:36:35):

Pashinyan's,

Arthur (00:36:37):

today, about two days ago,

Arthur (00:36:38):

Pashinyan's statement was very,

Arthur (00:36:40):

very, very dangerous.

Arthur (00:36:41):

He put on the same level the historical reality

Arthur (00:36:47):

Artsakh, Nagorno-Karabakh,

Arthur (00:36:49):

homeland of Armenians for a few thousand years,

Arthur (00:36:52):

an objective reality,

Arthur (00:36:54):

a historical fact,

Arthur (00:36:55):

a historical formation,

Arthur (00:36:58):

political and administrative formation,

Arthur (00:37:00):

He compared Republic of Karabakh, Artsakh, with West Azerbaijan that had never existed.

Arthur (00:37:08):

No basis for anything.

Arthur (00:37:10):

No one knows what is West Azerbaijan, and that's a narrative that is circulated by Aliyev and

Arthur (00:37:19):

Erdogan by Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:37:21):

So putting Artsakh on the same level with West Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:37:28):

he basically on a subconscious level sends a signal that Artsakh was something

Arthur (00:37:33):

virtual and forget about that.

Arthur (00:37:36):

It had never existed.

Arthur (00:37:38):

Forget about that.

Arthur (00:37:39):

It was a very, very risky statement.

Arthur (00:37:42):

On a practical, on a very short term perspective,

Arthur (00:37:48):

This was Pashinyan's offer since September, October, 2023.

Arthur (00:37:52):

The Artsakh page is closed.

Arthur (00:37:56):

We will not rise the issue of return of people of Artsakh to their homes.

Arthur (00:38:01):

Instead,

Arthur (00:38:02):

you do not rise the issue of West Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:38:06):

of return of West Azeris to their homeland,

Arthur (00:38:10):

which is Republic of Armenia,

Arthur (00:38:12):

that he calls,

Arthur (00:38:13):

that Azeris called West Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:38:17):

Pashinyan practiced what he preached.

Arthur (00:38:20):

He doesn't want this issue to be discussed, to be erased.

Arthur (00:38:25):

They do everything to take the issue of return from the international arena,

Arthur (00:38:31):

from the international agendas.

Arthur (00:38:33):

Remember what the MPs did in Narnia during the Uranus Parliamentary Assembly.

Arthur (00:38:38):

But what we see from Azerbaijan, we don't see any reciprocity from Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:38:46):

They keep insisting that more than 300,000 Azeris,

Arthur (00:38:52):

West Azeris have to return to West Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:38:56):

And even more, they go beyond, like during the session of their academy,

Arthur (00:39:03):

remember Aliyev calling seven Goyce and they say that returning back to Azeri

Arthur (00:39:12):

toponyms proves that this land this land belongs to Azerbaijan so Azerbaijan

Arthur (00:39:21):

pursues this long-ranging goes what pashinyan says nothing because pashinyan

Arthur (00:39:27):

understands

Arthur (00:39:28):

that his re-election depends a lot and a lot on Azerbaijan policies and allowing

Arthur (00:39:38):

the transit of handful of grain is a signal that Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:39:44):

not a signal,

Arthur (00:39:45):

it's a gesture from Azerbaijan to strengthen the position of Pashinyan on the verge

Arthur (00:39:50):

of elections.

Asbed (00:39:51):

I think basically his reelection is all he understands.

Asbed (00:39:55):

I don't think he understands anything more than that.

Asbed (00:39:57):

No, absolutely.

Asbed (00:39:58):

I agree with that. Arthur, we all thought that for Pashinyan, this issue was closed.

Asbed (00:40:03):

Artsakh issue is closed.

Asbed (00:40:05):

He's even said that, right?

Asbed (00:40:06):

So has he,

Asbed (00:40:08):

by raising this issue,

Asbed (00:40:09):

suddenly put the topic of the right of return back on the international agenda?

Arthur (00:40:14):

Well, this issue is still on the international agenda.

Arthur (00:40:17):

He likes that or he doesn't like that.

Arthur (00:40:19):

It doesn't matter.

Asbed (00:40:20):

Yeah, we think so, but he doesn't think so.

Arthur (00:40:22):

The international players...

Arthur (00:40:25):

countries and organizations who repeatedly rise this issue.

Arthur (00:40:32):

Now he wants to bring it back to kill once and forever.

Arthur (00:40:35):

We are not raising this issue.

Arthur (00:40:38):

You Azaris do not rise that issue yourself.

Arthur (00:40:41):

So this is absolutely, absolutely unacceptable.

Asbed (00:40:44):

Is the topic closed?

Asbed (00:40:45):

They're not closed.

Asbed (00:40:46):

Is Pashinyan lying to the Armenian people or is he lying to Aliyev?

Arthur (00:40:50):

Lying to anyone is part of his nature or is not a dominant trait of his nature.

Arthur (00:40:56):

I think he doesn't lie to Armenia.

Arthur (00:41:00):

He says that, okay, forget about this issue.

Arthur (00:41:03):

Just forget about this issue.

Arthur (00:41:06):

That's it. Because again, the chances getting reelected

Arthur (00:41:11):

depends on Aliyev's politics these coming six months.

Arthur (00:41:20):

Aliyev can play against Pashinyan and for Pashinyan.

Arthur (00:41:27):

Aliyev understands that Pashinyan is the best candidate he can have,

Arthur (00:41:32):

the best PM he can have in Armenia.

Arthur (00:41:36):

And obviously he will do everything for Pashinyan to succeed.

Arthur (00:41:40):

This is the something called peace agenda, okay?

Arthur (00:41:44):

Okay, look at established peace and Pashinyan come stand and say five years ago,

Arthur (00:41:50):

we promised peace.

Arthur (00:41:51):

Now we have peace, but this has a price.

Arthur (00:41:55):

The peace agenda has a price, and Aliyev squeezes this price from Pashinyan.

Arthur (00:42:02):

Not from Pashinyan, from Armenia, from Armenia, actually.

Arthur (00:42:06):

So he tightens the knot,

Arthur (00:42:11):

but not to such an extent to kill him,

Arthur (00:42:14):

to kill Pashinyan,

Arthur (00:42:15):

figuratively,

Arthur (00:42:16):

of course.

Hovik (00:42:17):

Arthur,

Hovik (00:42:18):

a normal leader of Armenia would potentially support the Artsakh Armenians,

Hovik (00:42:26):

would support the community,

Hovik (00:42:28):

their leadership.

Hovik (00:42:30):

They would even strengthen it.

Hovik (00:42:33):

A leader like Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:42:35):

whatever you may call him,

Hovik (00:42:36):

orders a raid of Artsakh's offices by the National Security Services.

Hovik (00:42:42):

No reason other than presumed economic crimes was given.

Hovik (00:42:47):

The witnesses who were there say that they discovered a list of

Hovik (00:42:53):

beneficiaries or benefactors who donate to the Artsakh cause and so forth,

Hovik (00:43:01):

so just innocuous information.

Hovik (00:43:03):

In the days before,

Hovik (00:43:05):

Artsakh's acting president,

Hovik (00:43:06):

Arshak Danielyan,

Hovik (00:43:08):

had vowed to continue the vigorous struggle.

Hovik (00:43:11):

Coincidence?

Hovik (00:43:13):

But to keep the rights of Artsakh's to return to their homeland on the international agenda.

Hovik (00:43:22):

What do you make of these raids?

Hovik (00:43:24):

Why can't they even come up with a fake reason on why they're raiding the premises

Hovik (00:43:29):

of the Artsakh office?

Arthur (00:43:31):

I don't believe in coincidences.

Arthur (00:43:34):

Obviously,

Arthur (00:43:35):

the next day after the parliamentary hearings at the Artsakh embassy of

Arthur (00:43:44):

representation in Armenia that I also participated,

Arthur (00:43:48):

there were a few

Arthur (00:43:51):

statements that the government didn't like, that no one liked actually, especially one.

Arthur (00:43:56):

But most importantly,

Arthur (00:43:58):

they cannot tolerate that Ashot Danielyan exposed the love affair between Pashinyan

Arthur (00:44:06):

and Aliyev because Pashinyan has promised to Aliyev to close this issue.

Arthur (00:44:15):

And now Mr. Danielyan

Arthur (00:44:17):

and uh the other MPs Artsakh MPs say that this page is not closed and we

Arthur (00:44:26):

continue struggling to have our right of return respected by the budget and by

Arthur (00:44:34):

international community and i really wonder okay because if pashinyan says close

Arthur (00:44:40):

this issue this means he

Arthur (00:44:46):

is okay with ethnic cleansing with genocide that was committed by Aliyev he's okay

Arthur (00:44:55):

with that if he's okay with the crime this means he shares the responsibility for

Arthur (00:45:00):

the crime and this is very interesting observation not observation okay a little

Arthur (00:45:07):

bit look to what I'm saying okay

Arthur (00:45:10):

why does he blame Samvel Shahramanyan for provoking attack from Azerbaijan against

Arthur (00:45:20):

arca he has to find a scapegoat because because if a country does nothing to

Arthur (00:45:30):

prevent a genocide it's guilty for allowing genocide

Arthur (00:45:37):

So Pashinyan can face a court for doing nothing to prevent genocide.

Arthur (00:45:44):

That is why he blames the Artsakh leadership.

Arthur (00:45:51):

It's not only like an emotional issue.

Arthur (00:45:55):

It's not only for a local audience saying that,

Arthur (00:45:58):

okay,

Arthur (00:45:59):

what I could do,

Arthur (00:46:00):

I could have done nothing because they provoked conflict with Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:46:05):

They were against my

Arthur (00:46:07):

proposal to lower the claims for status of Nagorno-Karabakh, but he now

Arthur (00:46:19):

denies the fact that it was ethnic cleansing, that was genocide.

Arthur (00:46:23):

Because if it was genocide, then what had he done to prevent genocide?

Asbed (00:46:28):

Right, he has responsibility.

Arthur (00:46:30):

Yes, this is why his interest and Aliya's interest to deny that it was a genocide coincide.

Arthur (00:46:41):

And this is why during the exodus,

Arthur (00:46:44):

during which people died during this exodus,

Arthur (00:46:48):

he said that Armenians have left Nagorno-Karabakh voluntarily.

Arthur (00:46:55):

And recent statements by Azerbaijan say that the people of Karabakh

Arthur (00:47:01):

left Karabakh voluntarily.

Arthur (00:47:04):

So what return they are talking about.

Asbed (00:47:07):

You can't get 120 people to vote similarly.

Asbed (00:47:11):

And how can you expect 120,000 people to all agree to leave their homeland of 1700

Asbed (00:47:18):

years together and move out?

Asbed (00:47:22):

It's just, okay.

Asbed (00:47:25):

Well, let's not argue.

Asbed (00:47:26):

It's nonsensical.

Asbed (00:47:28):

Arthur, I wanna move on to our final topic today.

Arthur (00:47:33):

My late father, you had a phrase, okay?

Arthur (00:47:35):

You cannot, it's very naive looking for lies in a fairy tale.

Asbed (00:47:39):

Exactly, exactly.

Asbed (00:47:43):

You are an economist.

Asbed (00:47:45):

And in the past week,

Asbed (00:47:46):

the Lewis Foundation released a report on the first nine months of economic

Asbed (00:47:50):

activity in Armenia.

Asbed (00:47:51):

So let's cut to the chase.

Asbed (00:47:53):

We already discussed the trade turnover has gone down about 60% in a year over year

Asbed (00:47:58):

from 2024 to 2025.

Asbed (00:48:00):

There's also a deep underperformance in capital expenditures in the country,

Asbed (00:48:04):

meaning that major projects are not being completed.

Asbed (00:48:08):

The top area where this is happening,

Asbed (00:48:11):

Luis Foundation named the defense sector,

Asbed (00:48:13):

the schools,

Asbed (00:48:14):

upgrading constructions projects and road improvements and other major

Asbed (00:48:18):

infrastructure.

Asbed (00:48:19):

We can put a full list in our show notes, podcast.groom.org slash episode number.

Asbed (00:48:25):

Go there and check it out.

Asbed (00:48:26):

We'll also have the link to the full report.

Asbed (00:48:29):

And critically, I want to say the state debt has now topped $14 billion.

Asbed (00:48:34):

We now have a state debt of $14.1 billion.

Asbed (00:48:37):

It's gone up almost 10%, $1.36 billion since the end of 2024.

Asbed (00:48:42):

Okay.

Asbed (00:48:45):

Arthur, my blood pressure goes up thinking about these numbers.

Asbed (00:48:49):

Where's all the money going if it's not going to capital projects?

Asbed (00:48:53):

What are they doing with billions of dollars coming into the country?

Arthur (00:48:57):

Well, the state debt is more than $14 billion.

Arthur (00:49:00):

It's about $17 billion at the present, at the parent exchange rate.

Arthur (00:49:05):

When we asked this issue to Pashinyan,

Arthur (00:49:10):

actually,

Arthur (00:49:11):

I asked this issue,

Arthur (00:49:12):

this question,

Arthur (00:49:13):

okay, can you basically try to separate,

Arthur (00:49:19):

to understand what would be Armenia's economic performance

Arthur (00:49:26):

if Armenia hadn't borrowed that significantly, okay?

Arthur (00:49:32):

So basically, they isolate or assess the debt impact for Armenia's economic performance.

Arthur (00:49:42):

Neither the Minister of Finance nor Prime Minister couldn't answer to this question.

Arthur (00:49:46):

And we keep insisting,

Arthur (00:49:48):

okay,

Arthur (00:49:49):

you've borrowed heavily,

Arthur (00:49:51):

you've borrowed heavily,

Arthur (00:49:52):

what is the net outcome?

Arthur (00:49:54):

Why did you borrow this intensive?

Arthur (00:49:56):

He said, because I needed to buy weapons.

Arthur (00:50:00):

I spent $8 billion to buy weapon.

Arthur (00:50:05):

Obviously, this is not true.

Arthur (00:50:08):

This is not true because he said, I needed big money in a very short time.

Arthur (00:50:13):

I think he meant that he had to pay Russians for the weapons that he supplied

Arthur (00:50:17):

during the 44-day war.

Arthur (00:50:19):

Basically, this means he got the weapons from Russia,

Arthur (00:50:25):

In the fall of 2020,

Arthur (00:50:27):

now he borrows from international community,

Arthur (00:50:30):

mainly from the West,

Arthur (00:50:31):

to pay back the loan to Russians.

Arthur (00:50:34):

But we understand that this is not true at all.

Arthur (00:50:38):

What Pashinyan does,

Arthur (00:50:39):

I think he has very good consultants who are very,

Arthur (00:50:42):

very professional in behavioral economics,

Arthur (00:50:45):

because I also lecture myself,

Arthur (00:50:47):

I lecture behavioral economics.

Arthur (00:50:49):

This is hyperbolic discounting when people value the present much more than the future, okay?

Arthur (00:50:56):

Because people say, okay, paved roads.

Arthur (00:50:59):

Okay, they like the paved roads.

Arthur (00:51:01):

They like this big show that they had yesterday at the Republic Square,

Arthur (00:51:05):

you know,

Arthur (00:51:06):

where they turn on the lights of the New Year train,

Arthur (00:51:09):

okay?

Arthur (00:51:10):

But how Armenia is going to repay his debt?

Arthur (00:51:13):

They cannot continuously finance the debt, chase bad money with good money.

Arthur (00:51:20):

They cannot do that continuously.

Arthur (00:51:23):

But when people say the future generation have to pay for this loan, I say, no, forget that.

Arthur (00:51:30):

It's a fallacy.

Arthur (00:51:31):

Today, Armenia's budget for 2026 is 3 trillion drums.

Arthur (00:51:38):

1 trillion drum will leave the country, will leave the government, will leave the budget.

Arthur (00:51:45):

about 600 million in interest and 400,

Arthur (00:51:49):

excuse me,

Arthur (00:51:50):

600 billion drums in principle and 400 million in interest.

Arthur (00:51:57):

So one in three drums goes to service the debt and to pay the majority.

Arthur (00:52:04):

So Pashinyan borrows significantly because he understands that he needs to show,

Arthur (00:52:11):

to imitate prosperity.

Arthur (00:52:15):

If not this heavy borrowing, the economic growth rate will be like 1%, 2%, 3%.

Arthur (00:52:21):

Because all the growth that we witness or at least majority of the growth that we

Arthur (00:52:30):

witness is attributed to the borrowing.

Arthur (00:52:36):

Okay.

Arthur (00:52:38):

And we haven't seen actually, okay, you mentioned roads.

Arthur (00:52:41):

He hasn't built any new road,

Arthur (00:52:44):

like the second road from Mary to Yerevan or the road from Selling Gorge,

Arthur (00:52:52):

nothing like that,

Arthur (00:52:53):

okay?

Arthur (00:52:54):

Having the roads that have traffic that people see every day, that's it.

Arthur (00:53:01):

And, okay, the extravaganza, the show at Republic Square yesterday.

Asbed (00:53:06):

So how come the opposition is not screaming bloody murder from rooftops about these

Asbed (00:53:11):

huge economic shortfall?

Asbed (00:53:14):

In America, you know, in America, we say it's the economy, stupid, right?

Asbed (00:53:19):

We've all heard that.

Asbed (00:53:21):

And now the campaign for the 2026 elections is in full swing.

Asbed (00:53:26):

But honestly, I'm not hearing the economy as a major topic on the part of the opposition.

Arthur (00:53:32):

Well, yeah.

Arthur (00:53:35):

Well, yeah, I agree with you.

Asbed (00:53:37):

We're all talking about church.

Asbed (00:53:39):

We're all talking.

Asbed (00:53:40):

I mean, these are important topics.

Asbed (00:53:41):

I'm not basing it.

Arthur (00:53:42):

But basically, if you follow me on social media, I think you have to be more active.

Arthur (00:53:47):

But look, okay, this issue of the foreign debt, okay?

Arthur (00:53:50):

People speak about future generations.

Arthur (00:53:52):

I made this analysis.

Arthur (00:53:53):

Again, I want to repeat that.

Arthur (00:53:55):

One out of three drums that comes into the budget goes out to service law to pay

Arthur (00:54:04):

the interest and for the principal.

Arthur (00:54:07):

Second, one in seven adults has bad consumer loan.

Arthur (00:54:14):

Imagine that.

Arthur (00:54:15):

One in seven has bad loans.

Arthur (00:54:18):

So they are chased by the police,

Arthur (00:54:20):

they are chased by court-martials,

Arthur (00:54:22):

they are chased by the banks,

Arthur (00:54:24):

but they do not have money.

Arthur (00:54:26):

But 136,000 people are not able to pay back their loans, which is up to 20,000, 50,000 rums.

Hovik (00:54:38):

But isn't that good for Pashinyan?

Hovik (00:54:40):

Because he has promised to forgive those loans.

Arthur (00:54:44):

and uh well yeah well this is interesting thing he hadn't promised to do that he

Arthur (00:54:50):

said if you re-enter the former job market

Arthur (00:54:55):

then we will pardon the fines but you still have to pay the interest and the and

Arthur (00:55:02):

the principle okay we'll pardon the fines we'll channel the not not have to pay you

Arthur (00:55:08):

have to channel your uh income income tax the amount of value the the amount of the

Arthur (00:55:15):

income tax to service your loan

Arthur (00:55:19):

But as of one month ago, I think about 5,000 people have applied only.

Arthur (00:55:25):

So this was a miserable failure.

Arthur (00:55:28):

A miserable failure because people prefer not to pay with some kind of expectation

Arthur (00:55:35):

rather than paying and basically announcing that they work and pay their taxes and

Arthur (00:55:45):

pay their,

Arthur (00:55:46):

you know, at least the principal to the banks.

Arthur (00:55:50):

But imagine a country where one in seven adults cannot pay its consumer loan.

Arthur (00:55:59):

If we add agricultural loans, business loans, mortgages, the number of people,

Arthur (00:56:05):

will be much higher than $90,000 that we have today.

Arthur (00:56:09):

So this is an economic issue.

Asbed (00:56:11):

Yeah, it absolutely is.

Asbed (00:56:13):

I just think that it should be raised more frequently to the attention of the

Asbed (00:56:18):

citizens,

Asbed (00:56:19):

especially during elections.

Asbed (00:56:21):

All right, let me wrap up our topics.

Asbed (00:56:23):

I want to ask each of you for some thoughts that you might want to share.

Asbed (00:56:27):

Arthur, something on your mind?

Arthur (00:56:29):

Yes,

Arthur (00:56:30):

I think we listen,

Arthur (00:56:32):

we hear from the public,

Arthur (00:56:35):

from other political parties saying that this opposition was not able to send

Arthur (00:56:43):

Pashinyan home as it promised during the previous elections,

Arthur (00:56:45):

blah,

Arthur (00:56:46):

blah, blah, blah, blah.

Arthur (00:56:47):

Okay, this opposition was the only political force that

Arthur (00:56:52):

actively and honestly was trying to stop Pashinyan.

Arthur (00:56:57):

But Pashinyan is not the issue that the parliamentary opposition, our faction, can solve alone.

Arthur (00:57:06):

This is an issue that touches everyone.

Arthur (00:57:12):

Pashinyan is on the verge of creating a cult.

Arthur (00:57:18):

a personal cult that we see, like Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, and so on.

Arthur (00:57:26):

He calls everyone traitor.

Arthur (00:57:29):

He goes, he chases everyone that doesn't agree with him.

Arthur (00:57:34):

So it's the mission of everyone to stop him.

Arthur (00:57:38):

The bells calls for everyone.

Arthur (00:57:43):

Today he writes church.

Arthur (00:57:44):

Today he fights...

Arthur (00:57:47):

Today he fights Armenian faction.

Arthur (00:57:50):

Tomorrow he will fight anyone who doesn't agree with him.

Arthur (00:57:55):

And he's driven by this.

Arthur (00:57:58):

He's obsessed with the idea that he's the state himself.

Arthur (00:58:02):

And it's everyone's responsibility to stop him.

Asbed (00:58:10):

It's interesting that you mentioned the word cult,

Asbed (00:58:13):

because we talked to many analysts who actually believe that there's a certain

Asbed (00:58:17):

cultist element to what's going on right now.

Arthur (00:58:22):

I've been telling that he's creating his own church for five years.

Arthur (00:58:26):

When he spoke about the- The Armenian Pashistolic Church.

Arthur (00:58:30):

Messias syndrome.

Arthur (00:58:33):

When he spoke about the Messianic syndrome, I said he's building his own church.

Asbed (00:58:36):

All right.

Asbed (00:58:37):

Well, Hovik, what's on your mind?

Hovik (00:58:40):

So I hope,

Hovik (00:58:41):

I'm not gonna express my original mind this time,

Hovik (00:58:44):

but I will read a segment from a Facebook post that I saw,

Hovik (00:58:50):

and I will give the author's name in the end because I want people not to be

Hovik (00:58:55):

immediately triggered.

Hovik (00:58:57):

And it's a very long 10 minute read, but I will just read a segment.

Hovik (00:59:02):

Nikol Pashinyan has understood that he has already been branded a guilty party and a traitor.

Hovik (00:59:08):

The public consensus and the mandate for that exists,

Hovik (00:59:11):

and the church work will carry it out by sanctifying the people.

Hovik (00:59:15):

Why the church? Because that is one of its historical missions.

Hovik (00:59:17):

Nikol Pashinyan is drowning in the prospect.

Hovik (00:59:20):

Moreover,

Hovik (00:59:21):

he has found himself in the purgatory of history,

Hovik (00:59:24):

realizing that both his past and his future are problematic,

Hovik (00:59:28):

and he makes even bigger mistakes.

Hovik (00:59:30):

Meanwhile,

Hovik (00:59:31):

Catholicos of all Armenians,

Hovik (00:59:32):

Garegin II,

Hovik (00:59:33):

is living through what is perhaps his happiest period.

Hovik (00:59:36):

A man who was considered pro-regime and labeled as a courtier is now becoming a

Hovik (00:59:41):

historical figure who defies the authorities' persecution.

Hovik (00:59:48):

All of Garegin II's earthly mistakes and sins fade into the background under the

Hovik (00:59:52):

glow of this historical mission with every blow from the authorities.

Hovik (00:59:56):

The harder they strike Garegin II, the more he will shine in history.

Hovik (01:00:00):

Because between the Catholicos and Nikol Pashinyan,

Hovik (01:00:02):

people have already chosen who the traitor is,

Hovik (01:00:05):

the traitor who turned out to be the devil.

Hovik (01:00:09):

And the proof is his movement against the church, even for non-believers.

Hovik (01:00:13):

I will let you read the rest.

Hovik (01:00:14):

It's by Mikayel Minasyan, December 7, 2025.

Hovik (01:00:18):

Anyway,

Hovik (01:00:21):

it was a very interesting read,

Hovik (01:00:22):

and regardless of what you think about him,

Hovik (01:00:25):

so I would urge you to go and find it and read it.

Asbed (01:00:28):

Yeah, I was going to say amen, and I was going to say I didn't write that, but...

Asbed (01:00:35):

Thank you very much, Arthur, for joining us today.

Asbed (01:00:38):

We appreciate your time.

Arthur (01:00:40):

Thank you very much for inviting me.

Arthur (01:00:41):

It's always a pleasure.

Asbed (01:00:43):

Yeah, absolutely.

Asbed (01:00:44):

And since this is probably the last time we talk in 2025, Happy New Year.

Arthur (01:00:48):

Happy New Year to you too.

Asbed (01:00:50):

We hope that a new sun will rise.

Hovik (01:00:51):

I don't know what I can wish for 2025 to have more,

Hovik (01:00:53):

but I know I want something less,

Hovik (01:00:54):

you know,

Hovik (01:00:55):

or some less people in my life.

Asbed (01:01:10):

okay take care gentlemen

Arthur (01:01:11):

take care

Hovik (01:01:12):

and it's not the extra weight. okay, bye-bye bye-bye.

Asbed (01:01:18):

That was our Week in Review show recorded on December 15, 2025.

Asbed (01:01:22):

We've been talking with Mr.

Asbed (01:01:24):

Arthur Khachatryan,

Asbed (01:01:26):

who is an MP from the Hayastan Dashinq,

Asbed (01:01:27):

Armenia Alliance,

Asbed (01:01:28):

and a member of the ARF,

Asbed (01:01:30):

Dashnaktsutyun.

Asbed (01:01:32):

In the past, he has held government posts such as Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration

Asbed (01:01:37):

and Development,

Asbed (01:01:38):

Governor of Chirag,

Asbed (01:01:39):

Minister of Culture,

Asbed (01:01:40):

and he is an economist by trade.

Asbed (01:01:43):

For more information, of course,

Asbed (01:01:44):

you can go to our show notes,

Asbed (01:01:45):

podcast.groom.org slash episode number and check out a lot more.

Asbed (01:01:50):

We'll also put all the links to the articles we're referencing in the show notes.

Hovik (01:01:55):

Folks, we're still seeing some people who are persistently and maybe in spite to spite us

Hovik (01:02:03):

not subscribing to our channel.

Hovik (01:02:05):

So if you're one of those people, it's okay.

Hovik (01:02:08):

We don't know about you.

Hovik (01:02:09):

I mean, we don't know your name,

Hovik (01:02:10):

but please subscribe so that we can enjoy your patronage even more and like,

Hovik (01:02:18):

comment and share.

Hovik (01:02:19):

So that, you know, you can help us fight the algorithmic wars that we're engaged in.

Hovik (01:02:25):

And if you're feeling extra generous,

Hovik (01:02:27):

of course, there's always the donation option,

Hovik (01:02:29):

which is podcasts.groong.org/donate.

Hovik (01:02:33):

Become a Lahamajun Luminary and illuminate your life with our news.

Hovik (01:02:39):

Or you can just become a source sponsor and either way.

Asbed (01:02:43):

Or a Harissa humanitarian.

Hovik (01:02:46):

I forgot about that one.

Hovik (01:02:47):

That's for the ultra-rich donors.

Hovik (01:02:49):

But yes, that's also possible.

Asbed (01:02:51):

Ultra-rich.

Asbed (01:02:52):

The people who can afford, what, 25 bucks or 10 bucks a month?

Hovik (01:02:56):

Yeah. I mean,

Hovik (01:02:57):

today, even like I think in some places in the United States,

Hovik (01:03:01):

you can't even buy coffee for that amount.

Hovik (01:03:02):

So, you know.

Hovik (01:03:04):

We should upgrade our tiers anyways.

Asbed (01:03:07):

Well, you remember when we were setting these up, we had a category that was $10,000 a month.

Asbed (01:03:13):

And then we thought, what if some crazy person actually does that and they decide to own us?

Asbed (01:03:18):

And we didn't do it.

Hovik (01:03:19):

Yeah, no, that was a joke.

Hovik (01:03:21):

We wanted to do that as a joke.

Hovik (01:03:22):

But yeah,

Hovik (01:03:24):

my principle is actually I would never accept that because I don't want a single

Hovik (01:03:28):

person to have so much stake.

Asbed (01:03:32):

Unless we have hundreds of them.

Hovik (01:03:35):

Yeah, I mean, you know, yeah, definitely.

Hovik (01:03:38):

So anyway, I mean, that's my personal opinion.

Hovik (01:03:41):

So thank you, everyone, for sticking with us so long.

Hovik (01:03:45):

I'm Hovik Manucharyan from Yerevan, Armenia.

Hovik (01:03:48):

And I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Asbed (01:03:51):

We'll talk to you next week.

Hovik (01:03:52):

Thanks for staying with us, folks.

Hovik (01:03:54):

Have a great week.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Arthur Khachatryan

Guest

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